Title Economic cost of sea level rise
 Collaborators Gary W. Yohe (Wesleyan), Hadi Dowlatabadi (CMU), Jason West (MIT), Richard Warrick (Waikato Univ.), Richard Klein (IVM), Richard Tol (Vrije Univ. and CMU), Samuel Fankhauser, Baruch Fischhoff (CMU)
 Keywords economic cost of sea level rise, value of information, integrated assessments, climate change, adaptation, vulnerability, developing regions, mitigation policy, uncertainty
 Abstract

This project will develop methodological templates for investigating adaptation to the threat of rising sea in the context of coastal storms, for calibrating the value of information, for modeling how information is used (including the results of integrated assessments) and exploring other issues of related to assessing vulnerability to climate change in particular and global change more generally.

Insight will be developed into (1) how to apply and adapt the method to coastal zones that lie beyond the boundaries of developed economies, how to bring state of the art erosion modeling to bear on the method and (2) how to incorporate a wide variety of institutional environments that restrict or enhance the efficacy of local adaptation decisions and strategies. We expect, as well, to foster analyses of coastal zones in developing regions of the world.

The role of adaptation in determining vulnerability to global change and/or global change policy will continue to be a second focus. Thinking creatively about climate variability will be critical in this effort. A triage sort of method will be developed so that careful analyses of adaptive potential will be conducted first in areas where they would pay off most in evaluating the role of adaptation in determining vulnerability to global change and/or global change policy.

Finally, Dr. Yohe will continue to exercise his integrated assessment model to explore mitigation policy options under uncertainty in the post-Kyoto environment. The post-Kyoto environment is an environment in which international negotiations seem to be adding to the uncertainty. Questions and issues derived from the role of sinks, the treatment of GHG's other than carbon dioxide, and the definition of alternative targets can all perhaps be best explored initially with a simple integrated assessment model that explicitly incorporates uncertainty.