|Title||Developing Regional Climate Scenarios|
|Collaborators||James Risbey (CMU), Joel Smith, Shannon Ragland|
|Keywords||climate model scenarios, expert elicitation|
|Abstract||Conventional regional climate scenarios are mostly
derived from GCMs and sample a small range of the plausible scenario
space. Much potentially useful information is lost this way.
This project is aimed at developing regional scenarios using
expert elicitations with GCMer's, climate dynamicists, and synoptic
meteorologists. The resulting scenarios
will span a wider range of scenario space, and will include narratives on the mechanisms that led to each of them.