Using gridded and station-wise daily precipitation data obtained
collaborators at the Center, and some obtained from the Indian
Meteorological Department we are exploring dry and wet rainfall
over India. Specifically, we are looking at high rainfall events
as daily rainfall in excess of 5 cm), and low rainfall events
daily rainfall below a threshold of 1mm) during the monsoon season
days from June 1 to September 30). While there have been a number
analyses of extreme rainfall events at individual stations, we
are interested in the larger-scale (national) patterns of such
events, obtained by aggregating over individual station data.
Preliminary analysis suggests some interesting and consistent
periodicity's in the annual counts of heavy rainfall events.
We will subsequently tie these events to specific impacts processes
- for example, for a particular crop, dry spell in excess of
a certain number of days at a particular point in the cropping
season may lead to failure.
The baseline characterization of the historical variability
in extreme weather events (cyclones, dry and wet spells), when
subsequently coupled with the associated impacts, will be critical
for developing an understanding of the climate - economy / society
linkages, and be essential input to vulnerability and adaptation