Title A systematic study of monsoon variability in India's agricultural system
 Collaborators Milind Kandlikar (CMU),
James Risbey (CMU),
Anand Patwardhan (IIT-Bombay),
David Yates (Colorado)
Ken Strzepek (Colorado)
 Keywords India, energy, agriculture, monsoon forecasts, impact assessment
 Abstract

The annual monsoon is by far the most important source of environmental variability for in India, and shapes the entire water resource and agricultural system ­ from farmers adaptive strategies, to water resource planning by district level and state agencies, to the forecasting, distribution and relief activities at the national level. On going CMU-HDGC efforts focus on the topic of monsoon variability.

Projects include analysis of drought in India from multiple perspectives -- Climatic, Hydrological, Economic and Political. By comparing these multiple definitions of drought on a district by district basis, one can attempt to analyze the multiple natural and social drivers of drought. A statistical study of climatic extremes based on daily rainfall data for 70 years over roughly 200 locations all over India is underway. A second study on developing India wide spatial comparisons of rainfall and soil from a long term seasonal data-set is also being performed.

A second analysis attempts to identify how monsoon predictions and other information are currently used by analyzing content of information ( e.g., the level of accuracy for magnitude and timing of monsoon predictions and the spatial coherence of predictions); the channels of, and barriers to, the flow of information; and the ways in which information is traditionally used (and novel information could be used) in strategies for adaptation to extremes. Methodologically, this project will add to the understanding of impacts and adaptation in regions with informal markets and subsistence living conditions, and thus contribute to an emerging theme at the Center ­ the development of methodologies for impact assessment.