The overall objective of the project is to examine interactions
between local and global air pollution impacts and control strategies.
This will be accomplished by integrating the problem vertically
through sequential analysis of economic activity, emissions,
ambient concentrations, exposures and health impacts; as well
as horizontally across the multiple problem domains of
local air quality and global climate change.
PART I. HEALTH EFFECT MODEL
This phase of the proposed study focuses upon: 1. the assessment
of local air pollution and its impact on public health; and 2.
uncertainty analysis of health benefits associated with particulate
matter (PM) control strategies. This project will develop a link
between the ambient level of particulate pollution and the subsequent
human exposure and health effects. The objective is to estimate
the health benefits associated with different ambient pollution
levels and the overall uncertainty of this estimate. The uncertainty
analysis seeks to identify individual sources of uncertainty
and the overall uncertainty in the integrated model and to determine
the relative contribution of the uncertainty from different components
of the model.
PART II. EXPOSURE-HEALTH MODEL
In airborne particulate matter studies, understanding the
relationship between ambient particulate matter concentrations
measured at outdoor central monitoring stations and personal
exposure to ambient particles is a priority issue, especially
for susceptible subpopulations. Our statistical simulation model
tries to investigate the quantitative relationship between central-monitoring
PM concentrations and actual individual exposures to particulate
matter, taking ambient air concentrations, contribution from
indoor sources and time-activity patterns into consideration.
The model also assesses the extent of measurement error and misclassification
error effects on the epidemiology studies in estimating adverse
health effects of particulate matter. These errors result in
a bias which is a function of the outdoor concentration and personal
exposure relationships in the city(ies) where the epidemiological
study(ies) are conducted. An integrated uncertainty analysis
of the exposure-health model indicates that the net effect of
the bias adjustment and the translation from outdoor concentrations
to personal exposures yields a modest increase in the expected
sensitivity of the incidence of health effects associated with
PM, accompanied by an increase in the overall uncertainty.