Title Malaria Prevalence and Climate Change: expert elicitation and model
specification
 Collaborators Hadi Dowlatabadi (CMU), Elizabeth Casman (CMU)
 Keywords malaria, human disease, climate change, expert elicitation, public health, epidemiology
 Abstract

Most malaria experts have not participated in studies linking climate change with the prevalence and virulence of malaria. Often they see too many factors at work to confidently associate the presence of malaria with climatic factors. We are interested in broadening the debate about climate change and the future extent of malaria to include the views of these experts.

An expert elicitation protocol similar to those previously developed for climate and ecological scientists is being developed to elicit expert's mental model of malaria prevalence and its evolution over the next century. The elicitation will help us identify the key determinants of malaria extent, uncertainties in our understanding and projections, efficacy of intervention programs, value of further research, etc.

The results from this elicitation will be used to expand (and calibrate probabilistically) existing frameworks for malaria prevalence.