Title	Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems: a program of expert elicitation
Collaborators	M. Granger Morgan (CMU), Lou Pitelka (Univ. of Maryland), Elena Shevliakova (Princeton)
Keywords	expert elicitation, forest impacts, forest ecosystems, standing biomass
Abstract	Detailed substantive interviews are being conducted with a group of leading ecologists to explore the likely impacts of climate change on tropical and boreal forests. The interview consists of seven parts: 1) A series of tasks designed to learn the factors and processes which the expert considers to be most important in determining the responses of northern and tropical forests to 2x[CO2] induced climate change; 2) A series of questions which assume fairly gradual and modest 2x[CO2] climate change and ask about the likely resulting changes in standing biomass and soil carbon in northern and in tropical forests; 3) A set of questions related to how rapidly trees in the northern hemisphere can migrate in the face of climate change; 4) A set of questions about species loss; 5) Some questions about how the mix of biota in two specific northern forests might change over time in the face of fairly gradual 2x[CO2] climate change; 6) Some questions similar to those posed above, but this time for the case of a climate change that is more abrupt; and 7) A series of questions designed to learn your views about research needs and appropriate priorities in the field of terrestrial ecology and climate change.