|Title||Exploring some long range aspects of demographic change|
|Keywords||demographic change, population, social impacts, intergenerational decision making|
When considering global change phenomena few issues evoke more vim and vigor than the concern about population growth. In developing long-term projections of global change we need credible models of demographic dynamics, and coherent consideration of the implications of significant demographic change.
In this research I am trying to understand the implications
of lower population growth (always considered a desirable outcome)
for demographic composition and the challenges which need to
be faced in preparing for such a future. In a world where population
is level at 10 billion, the ratio of individuals over age 65
to all other age groups will have changed from the current 5%
to over 20%. Consider the following questions:
Coherent consideration of these and many related issues points to inconsistencies in how we think about economic development, risk transitions, social dynamics, and inter-generational decision-making. These issues will in turn lead to significant implications for sensibility and stability of decisions made today about long-term problems such as climate change.