{ From user Hadi Dowlatabadi, Model Gcc at Mon, Nov 29, 1999 8:49 pm}
Softwareversion 1.1


{ System Variables with non-default values: }
Numberwidth := 2
Samplesize := 50
Distribsize := 21
Windows := 2
Heapsize := 14.44M
Typechecking := 1
Checking := 1
Graphwindows := 10
Randomseed := 1997
Showhier := 1
Saveoptions := 2
Savevalues := 0
Distresol := 1
Cdfresol := 1
Naming := 1
Randomtype := 2
Webhelper := -1
Allwarnings := 0


{ Non-default Time SysVar value: }
Time := Sequence( 1975, 2100, 5 )
Title Time: Time

Attribute Reference

Attribute The

Attribute Date_bough

Askattribute Reference,Variable,Yes
Model Gcc
Title: Global~
climate~
change
Description: A model to explore effects of global climate change due t~~
o emissions of radiatively important trace substances (RITS), such as ~~
CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols.~
This model is under continuing development.  Believe the structure, no~~
t the numbers!
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi~
Department of Engineering and Public Policy~
Carnegie Mellon University.
Date: Wed, Oct 30, 1991 1:51 PM
Saveauthor: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Savedate: Mon, Nov 29, 1999 8:49 pm
Defaultsize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,7,44,428,434,17
Diagramcolor: 58981,65535,52427
Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 14
Fileinfo: 0,Model Gcc,1,1,0,Office:¥ ICAM Model:ICAM_3-1.ANA
Pagesetup: (01000050004800480000000002DA0228FFE1FFE202F902465000052803~~
FC00010050004800480000000002DA0228000000000064000000000000000000000001~~
270F000100010000000000000000000000000012000002640000031800000000227200~~
010001000300020000000000000000FE1C01000000)

Module The_integrated_clima
Title: The Integrated Climate Assessment Model (ICAM)
Description: The general relationships pertinent to climate change ar~~
e displayed in the connected diagram at the top.
Author: Hadi
Date: Wed, Apr 30, 1997 3:24 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 208,288,0
Nodesize: 188,28
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,1,
Diagstate: 1,6,27,428,430,17
Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215
Diagramcolor: 1,-31129,-26215
Nodefont: Times New Roman, 14

Module Emissions
Title: Energy & Emissions
Description: This is the sub-model where the emissions of various rits~~
 from natural and anthroogenic sources are calculated.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Wed, Oct 30, 1991 3:26 PM
Defaultsize: 44,20
Nodelocation: 80,312,0
Nodesize: 60,36
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Diagstate: 1,117,255,359,299,17
Nodecolor: 52428,52428,52428
Diagramcolor: 55705,55705,55705
Fontstyle: Arial, 9

Module F_energy_mod
Title: Energy Model
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 9 Sep, 1994 10:14
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 112,40
Nodesize: 60,32
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Diagstate: 1,41,59,456,319,17
Nodecolor: -13512,-11464,-1
Nodefont: Arial, 12

Module Gas_produc2
Title: Gas Production & Pricing
Description: The natural gas supply model.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 224,40
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,52,93,398,227,17

Module Gas_pricin
Title: Gas Pricing & Discovery
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Dec 8, 1994 17:21
Defaultsize: 44,20
Nodelocation: 264,104
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,357,51,403,255,17

Chance Dp_gas
Title: Change in Gas Prices
Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill,((P_gas-P_gas[Time-1])/P_gas[Time-1]))
Nodelocation: 288,32
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,15,334,632,142,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective P_gas
Title: Gas Prices Through Time
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill+Initial_gas_price),Ipcc_gas_price_B2+(I~~
f (((What_is_the_time_hor*Gas_produc1)>(Realized_g-Cumulative1)) And (~~
Gas_produc1>0)) Then (P_gas[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) Else (P_gas[~~
Time-1]*Gas_prices_fall)))
Nodelocation: 288,176
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,216,226
Valuestate: 1,133,67,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Discovery_gas
Title: Price hike may lead to new gas discoveries
Definition: Dynamic(0,0,(If (Scenario_fossil_fuel='NO') Then 0 Else (I~~
f (Dp_gas[Time-2]>=(What_is_the_level_of-1)) Then new_discovery Else 0~~
)))
Nodelocation: 88,32
Nodesize: 52,24
Windstate: 1,241,365
Valuestate: 1,40,145,686,232,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Gas_prices_fall
Title: Gas prices drop with new discovery
Definition: Dynamic(1,(If (Discovery_gas>0) Then (1/What_is_the_level_~~
of) Else 1))
Nodelocation: 88,176
Nodesize: 52,24
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Cum_gas_discovery
Title: Cumulative Gas Discoveries
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill,if discovery_gas > 0 then Cumulative1+Cu~~
m_gas_discovery[time-1] else Cum_gas_discovery[time-1])
Nodelocation: 192,104
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_gas_price
Title: Initial gas price
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Normal( 2, 1m )
Nodelocation: 328,128
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Ipcc_gas_price_b2
Title: IPCC Gas Price Adder B2
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.05 Else (If (Choose~~
_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0))
Nodelocation: 320,96
Nodesize: 44,20

Close Gas_pricin

Module Gas_production
Title: Gas Production
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 104,104
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,52,184,472,326,17

Chance Realized_g
Title: Realized Gas Resrves
Units: EJ
Definition: cum_gas_discovery+~
(Evaluate_p((Gas_reserves), UF_Fuel))
Nodelocation: 200,24
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,120,92,416,303,1,STAT
Reformval: [Time, Statslabels ]

Objective Gas_produc1
Title: Gas Production through Time
Units: EJ/yr
Definition: Dynamic(((45.66*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((54*U_fuelq)+Scen_fil~~
l),((60*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((79.5*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),(If (Are_gas_re~~
[Time-1]=1) Then 0 Else Slice(Q_fuels_2[Time-1],Fuels,1)))
Nodelocation: 288,168
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,236,179
Valuestate: 1,15,43,632,434,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]
Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0

Chance Cumulative1
Title: Cumulative Gas Production
Units: EJ
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative1[Time-1]+(5*Gas_produc1)))
Nodelocation: 368,96
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,110,51,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]
Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0

Chance Are_gas_re
Title: Are Gas Reserves Exhausted?
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative1>Realized_g) Then 1 Else 0))~~

Nodelocation: 200,96
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,561,487,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Gas_reserves
Title: Gas Reserves
Description: This is the possible range of gas reserve values.
Definition: Triangular( 7500, 15K, 18K )
Nodelocation: 64,24
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,156,185
Valuestate: 1,72,82,771,528,1,PDFP
Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:8000~
Xmaximum:18K~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:400u~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~


Chance Growth_of_
Title: Growth of gas Production Since 1975
Definition: Dynamic(1, (Gas_produc1/Gas_produc))
Nodelocation: 376,248
Nodesize: 52,24
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,STAT
Reformval: [Time, Statslabels ]

Chance Gas_produc
Title: Gas Production in 1975
Definition: Dynamic(Gas_produc1,Gas_produc[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 208,248
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,325,176
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Gas_production

Close Gas_produc2

Module Coal_produ
Title: Coal Production & Pricing
Description: The coal supply model.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 224,240
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,40,40,393,222,17

Module Coal_pricing
Title: Coal Pricing
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Tue, Dec 6, 1994 7:19
Defaultsize: 44,20
Nodelocation: 264,88
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,61,53,480,376,17

Objective Dp_coal
Title: Change in Coal Price
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_coal-P_coal[Time-1])/P_coal[Time-1~~
]))
Nodelocation: 360,272,0
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance P_coal
Title: Coal Price Through Time
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Dynamic(((Scen_fill+Initial_coal_price)+Rent_extra),(Rent_~~
extra+Ipcc_coal_adder_b2+(If (((4*What_is_the_time_hor)*Coal_produ1)>(~~
Realized_c-Cumulative4)) Then (P_coal[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) El~~
se P_coal[Time-1])))
Nodelocation: 200,272,0
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,334,274
Valuestate: 1,192,80,526,379,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance What_level_of_rent_1
Title: What Level of Rent is Captured by Coal Producers?
Description: There is rent to be captured by coal producers as the pri~~
ce of gas and oil rise, due to resource limitations.~
Coal_rent_sens*~
Evaluate_p(Uniform( 0, 0.02 ),  UF_Fuel)
Definition: Coal_rent_sens*~
Evaluate_p(rent_scenario,  UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 104,160,1
Nodesize: 52,28
Aliases: Alias What_level_of_rent_i

Chance Rent_extra
Title: Rent Extracted
Description: Coal prices can rise not because of resource restrictions~~
, but due to higher price of competitors.
Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(Total_pric*What_level_of_rent_1))
Nodelocation: 200,192,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,149,328
Valuestate: 1,136,146,632,434,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Next_cheap
Title: Next cheapest Fossil
Description: This module calculates the price of the next cheapest fos~~
sil alternative.
Definition: (If (P_Oil<P_gas) Then P_Oil Else P_gas)
Nodelocation: 288,64,0
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,88,98,658,420,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Total_pric
Title: Total Price Dfferential
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(If ((Next_cheap-P_coal[Time-1])>0) Th~~
en (Next_cheap-P_coal[Time-1]) Else 0))
Nodelocation: 288,160,0
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,88,98,632,142,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_coal_price
Title: Initial coal price
Units: $/GJ
Definition: normal(1.7, 1m)
Nodelocation: 88,272,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rent_scenario
Title: Rent Scenario
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then Rent_a2 Else (If (Cho~~
ose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Rent_b2 Else Base_rent))
Nodelocation: 104,104,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM

Module Modifications_to_ic1
Title: Modifications to ICAM to Simulate IPCC Scenarios
Author: Default
Date: Thu, Nov 04, 1999 3:40 PM
Nodelocation: 160,40,1
Nodesize: 64,28

Chance Base_rent
Title: Base Rent
Definition: Uniform( 0, 0.02 )
Nodelocation: 48,16,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rent_a2
Title: Rent A2
Definition: 0.003
Nodelocation: 136,16,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rent_b2
Title: Rent b2
Definition: 0.5
Nodelocation: 200,48,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Ipcc_coal_adder_b2
Title: IPCC Coal Adder B2
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.025 Else (If (Choos~~
e_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0))
Nodelocation: 48,24,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Close Modifications_to_ic1

Close Coal_pricing

Module Coal_production
Title: Coal Production
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 120,88
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,104,114,481,364,17

Chance Realized_c
Title: Realized Coal Reserves
Units: EJ
Definition: (Evaluate_p((Coal_reserves), UF_Fuel))
Nodelocation: 192,32
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM

Objective Coal_produ1
Title: Coal Production Through Time
Units: Ej/yr
Definition: Dynamic(((72*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((78*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),~~
((90*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((98*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),Slice(Q_fuels_2[Time~~
-1],Fuels,3))
Nodelocation: 296,200
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,248,258
Valuestate: 1,395,319,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Cumulative4
Title: Cumulative Coal Production
Units: Ej
Description: Dynamic(0*carbon_tax,(Cum_coalq[Time-1]+5*coalq_t))
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative4[Time-1]+(5*Coal_produ1)))
Nodelocation: 360,136
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Are_coal_r
Title: Are Coal Reserves Exhausted?
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative4>Realized_c) Then 1 Else 0))~~

Nodelocation: 192,136
Nodesize: 52,20
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Coal_reserves
Title: Coal Reserves
Definition: Triangular( 300K, 700k, 1400k )
Nodelocation: 56,32
Nodesize: 52,20
Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1

Chance Coal_produ2
Title: Coal Production in 1975
Definition: Dynamic(Coal_produ1,Coal_produ2[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 192,264
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Growth_in_1
Title: Growth in Coal Production
Definition: Dynamic(1,(Coal_produ1/Coal_produ2))
Nodelocation: 384,264
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Coal_production

Close Coal_produ

Module Non_fossil
Title: Non-Fossil Production & Pricing
Description: The non-fossil supply model.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 80,144
Nodesize: 52,24
Diagstate: 1,83,64,476,356,17

Objective Non_fossil2
Title: Non-fossil Production Through Time
Units: EJ/yr
Definition: Dynamic(((14.1*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((23.15*U_fuelq)+Scen_f~~
ill),((37.4*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((15*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),Slice(Q_fuels~~
_2[Time-1],Fuels,4))
Nodelocation: 336,240
Nodesize: 52,24
Windstate: 1,112,93
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]
Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0

Chance Cumulative3
Title: Cumulative Non-fossil Production
Units: EJ
Description: Dynamic(0,(Cum_coalq[Time-1]+5*coalq_t))
Definition: Dynamic(100+scen_fill,(Cumulative3[Time-1]+(5*Non_fossil2)~~
))
Nodelocation: 336,312
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective P_non_fossil
Title: Non-fossil Price Through Time
Units: $/GJ
Description: Dynamic(Non_fossil_prices_wo,(If ((Choose_control_strat=S~~
lice(Objective1,Objective1,99)) And (Time>2015)) Then Non_fossil_price~~
s_wi Else Non_fossil_prices_wo))
Definition: Non_fossil_prices_wo
Nodelocation: 336,96
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,55,62,644,564,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:40~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Dp_non_fossil
Title: Change in Price of Non-fossil
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_non_fossil-P_non_fossil[Time-1])/P~~
_non_fossil[Time-1]))
Nodelocation: 336,24
Nodesize: 52,20
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Backstop_p
Title: Backstop Price for Non-fossil
Units: $/GJ
Definition: ((Bs_p_sens*Evaluate_p(Normal(16.38,2)*Produce_and_learn,U~~
f_fuel))+(Scen_fill))
Nodelocation: 72,96
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Rate_of_bs
Title: Rate of Backstop Price Decline
Description: Evaluate_p(uniform(0.85,.99), UF_Fuel)
Definition: Evaluate_p(uniform(0.85,.99), UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 208,24
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Bs_p_unc
Title: Uncertainty in Back Stop Price Pressure
Description: This is where a scalar multiplier is used to change the e~~
xternality price charged for renewable and non-fossil energy sources.
Definition: Ipcc_price_sce1
Nodelocation: 208,240
Nodesize: 52,24

Chance Congestion_penalty
Title: Congestion Leads to Externality Costs
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_f~~
ill, 
BS_P_Unc*(3.33E-3*Non_fossil2[time-1] +
3.33E-6*Non_fossil2[time-1]^2 +
3.33E-9*Non_fossil2[time-1]^3 ))
Nodelocation: 208,168
Nodesize: 56,28
Aliases: Alias What_is_the_level_o2
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Module Emf_accelerated_tech
Title: EMF Accelerated Technology Assumptions
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:56 PM
Nodelocation: 336,160
Nodesize: 52,28
Diagstate: 1,212,78,466,232,17

Variable Emf_q_bm
Title: EMF Quantity of Cheap Biomass
Units: EJ
Definition: array(non_fossil_index, [80, 320, 0])
Nodelocation: 72,24
Nodesize: 52,20

Variable Emf_p_bm
Title: EMF Price of Cheap Biomass
Definition: array(non_fossil_index, [1.4, 2.8, 0])
Nodelocation: 72,72
Nodesize: 52,20

Index Non_fossil_index
Title: Non-fossil Index
Definition: ['Low Priced','Mid Priced','High Priced']
Nodelocation: 48,136
Nodesize: 44,20

Variable Non_fossil_q
Title: Non-fossil Q
Definition: Table(Non_fossil_index)(
if Non_fossil2 > slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1) then slice(emf_q~~
_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)
else non_fossil2,
if (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)) > 
slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2) then slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_i~~
ndex, 2) 
else 
if (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)) < 0 then 0
else (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)), 
if Non_fossil2 - (
slice(emf_q_bm,Non_fossil_index, 1)+
slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2)
) > 0 then Non_fossil2 - (
slice(emf_q_bm,Non_fossil_index, 1)+
slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2)
) else 0
)
Nodelocation: 192,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,102,204
Defnstate: 1,120,130,586,309,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,92,83,672,511,0,SAMP
Reformval: [Time, Non_fossil_index ]

Variable Non_fossil_p
Title: Non-fossil P
Definition: Table(Non_fossil_index)(
Slice(Emf_p_bm,Non_fossil_index,1),Slice(Emf_p_bm,Non_fossil_index,2),~~
Non_fossil_prices_wo)
Nodelocation: 192,72
Nodesize: 44,20

Variable Non_fossil_prices_wi
Title: Price with EMF
Definition: dynamic(sum((non_fossil_q*non_fossil_p), Non_fossil_index)~~
/non_fossil2,
sum((non_fossil_q*non_fossil_p), Non_fossil_index)/non_fossil2)
Nodelocation: 304,48
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,72,88,824,513,0,STAT
Reformval: [Time, Statslabels ]

Close Emf_accelerated_tech

Chance Non_fossil_prices_wo
Title: Non Fossil Prices~
Without Biomass
Definition: Dynamic((2.2*Backstop_p),(Congestion_penalty+(If (Non_foss~~
il_prices_wo[Time-1]<=Backstop_p) Then Backstop_p Else (Non_fossil_pri~~
ces_wo[Time-1]*Rate_of_bs))))
Nodelocation: 208,96
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,180,86,526,411,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Produce_and_learn
Title: Production Lowers Prices
Definition: if Scenario_scale_econo = 'YES' then ((Cumulative3/100)^le~~
arning_index)/(Cumulative3/100)~
else 1
Nodelocation: 72,312
Nodesize: 52,24
Valuestate: 1,323,78,463,444,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Ipcc_price_sce1
Title: IPCC Price Scenario I
Description: if Scenario ='A1' then 0 ~
if Scenario ='A2' then 0.5 ~
else 0.1
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then 0 Else (If (Choose_an~~
_ipcc_scena='A2') Then 0.5 Else 0.1))
Nodelocation: 136,256
Nodesize: 52,20

Close Non_fossil

Module Oil_produc
Title: Oil Production & Pricing
Units: $/GJ
Description: The oil supply model.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 368,144
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,153,40,370,167,17

Module Oil_pricin
Title: Oil Pricing & Discovery
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Dec 8, 1994 17:21
Defaultsize: 44,20
Nodelocation: 248,64
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,341,192,409,243,17

Chance Dp_oil
Title: Change in Oil Price
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_oil-P_oil[Time-1])/P_oil[Time-1]))~~

Nodelocation: 256,56
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,10,122,632,142,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective P_oil
Title: Oil Price Through Time
Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill+Initial_oil_price),Ipcc_oil_price_b2+(I~~
f (((What_is_the_time_hor*Oil_produc1)>(Realized_o-Cumulative2)) And (~~
Oil_produc1>0)) Then (P_oil[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) Else (P_oil[~~
Time-1]*Oil_prices_fall)))
Nodelocation: 256,168
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,72,83
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Discovery_oil
Title: Discovery of Oil
Definition: Dynamic(0,0,(If (Scenario_fossil_fuel='NO') Then 0 Else (I~~
f (Dp_oil[Time-2]>=(What_is_the_level_of-1)) Then New_discovery Else 0~~
)))
Nodelocation: 104,56
Nodesize: 52,20
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Oil_prices_fall
Title: Oil Prices Fall With Discovery
Definition: Dynamic(1,(If (Discovery_oil>0) Then (1/What_is_the_level_~~
of) Else 1))
Nodelocation: 104,168
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Cum_oil_discovery
Title: Cumulative Oil Discoveries
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill,if discovery_oil > 0 then Cumulative2+Cu~~
m_oil_discovery[time-1] else 
Cum_oil_discovery[time-1])
Nodelocation: 184,112
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_oil_price
Title: Initial oil price
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Normal( 2, 1m )
Nodelocation: 328,128
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Ipcc_oil_price_b2
Title: IPCC Oil Price Adder B2
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.05 Else (If (Choose~~
_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0))
Nodelocation: 328,88
Nodesize: 44,20

Close Oil_pricin

Module Oil_production
Title: Oil Production
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Nodelocation: 104,64
Nodesize: 52,20
Diagstate: 1,334,101,449,243,17

Chance Realized_o
Title: Realized Oil Reserves
Units: EJ
Definition: Cum_oil_discovery+~
(Evaluate_p((oil_reserves), UF_Fuel))
Nodelocation: 192,40
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,1,42,636,434,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective Oil_produc1
Title: Oil Production Through Time
Units: EJ/yr
Definition: Dynamic(((121*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((126*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill~~
),((116*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((131*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),(If (Are_oil_re[~~
Time-1]=1) Then 0 Else Slice(Q_fuels_2[Time-1],Fuels,2)))
Nodelocation: 264,200
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,83,156
Valuestate: 1,290,283,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Cumulative2
Title: Cumulative Oil Production
Units: EJ
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative2[Time-1]+(5*Oil_produc1)))
Nodelocation: 344,128
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,678,483,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:3~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:100K~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Are_oil_re
Title: Are Oil Reserves Exhausted?
Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative2>Realized_o) Then 1 Else 0))~~

Nodelocation: 192,128
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,369,450,0,MIDM

Chance Oil_reserves
Title: Oil Reserves
Definition: Triangular( 7500, 15K, 18K )
Nodelocation: 64,40
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1

Close Oil_production

Close Oil_produc

Module Demand_con
Title: Demand Conservation & Substitution
Description: In this module a number of important issues are calculate~~
d.  Historic consumption data are used to calibrate the pre 1990 data.~~
  The increasing price of energy is thought to impose a drag on econom~~
ic growth.  This feedback on the economy is calculated here.  Growth i~~
s demand for energy is determined by economic growth and the autonomou~~
s energy efficiency index.   Energy use is calculated assuming global ~~
markets for all fuels.  Shares for each region are determined by relat~~
ive rates of economic growth and AEEI.  As the price of fuels change, ~~
the demand adjusts through conservation and fuel switching.  A long-ru~~
n interfuel substitution model is adopted here with 1/4 response in ea~~
ch five year time period following price changes with the full long-ru~~
n response being felt in 20 years.  If the price of non-fossil fuels i~~
s lower than the fossil alternatives, the inter-fuel substitutions are~~
 switched to non-fossil.  A small price hurdle is built in so that ave~~
rsion to non-fossil as a new technology can be adequately represented.~~

Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 14 Sep, 1994 09:28
Defaultsize: 52,20
Nodelocation: 224,144
Nodesize: 52,28
Diagstate: 1,104,118,469,247,17

Index Fuels
Title: Fuels
Definition: ['Gas','Oil','Coal','Other']
Nodelocation: 160,312
Nodesize: 52,20

Index Fuels1
Title: Fuels1
Definition: ['Gas', 'Oil','Coal','Other']
Nodelocation: 56,312
Nodesize: 52,20

Module Parameters_affecting
Title: Parameters Affecting Energy Prices
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 16 Sep, 1994 10:36
Nodelocation: 160,112
Nodesize: 60,36
Diagstate: 1,145,122,483,483,1
Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-8737

Chance What_is_the_time_hor
Title: What is the Time Horizon for Scarcity Price Hikes?
Description: This defines the time horizon at which scarcity is recogn~~
ized.  For example, if the value here is 15, when the reserve to produ~~
ction ratio for a fuel falls below 15, the price is hiked.
Definition: Evaluate_p(timing_scenario, UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 240,272
Nodesize: 52,28
Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,STAT
Aliases: Alias Scarcity_horizon

Chance What_is_the_level_of
Title: What is the Level of Scarcity Price Hike?
Description: Once the scarcity has been recognized, this is the rate a~~
t which the price is hiked in each time period.
Definition: Dynamic(Pricing_scenario, Pricing_scenario)
Nodelocation: 232,104
Nodesize: 52,24
Windstate: 1,103,167
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,PDFP
Aliases: Alias What_is_the_level_o1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1.2~
Xmaximum:1.8~
Yminimum:-1u~
Ymaximum:1u~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~


Variable Reg_fuel_subs
Title: Regional Fuel Price Subsidies in 1990
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(
0,0,0,0,0,1.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,1,1,1.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0.2,1,1,0,0,0.5,1,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0.5,0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
)
Nodelocation: 368,168
Nodesize: 44,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Reformdef: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]

Chance Base_price_hike
Title: Base Price Hike
Definition: dynamic(normal(1.5, 0.15), normal(1.5, 0.15))
Nodelocation: 48,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,PDFP

Chance A2_price_hike
Title: A2 Price HIke
Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ), Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ))
Nodelocation: 48,64
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Pricing_scenario
Title: Pricing Scenario
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then A2_price_hike Else (I~~
f (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then B1_price_hike Else (If (Choose_an_i~~
pcc_scena='B2') Then B2_price_hike Else Base_price_hike)))
Nodelocation: 128,104
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,289,226

Chance Base_timing
Title: Base Timing
Definition: dynamic(Lognormal(15, 1.25), Lognormal(15, 1.25))
Nodelocation: 48,192
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance A2_timing
Title: A2 Timing
Definition: dynamic(Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ), Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ))
Nodelocation: 48,232
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Timing_scenario
Title: Timing Scenario
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then A2_timing Else (If (C~~
hoose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then A2_timing Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scen~~
a='B2') Then A2_timing Else A2_timing)))
Nodelocation: 136,272
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,298,77

Chance B2_price_hike
Title: B2 Price HIke
Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ), Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ))
Nodelocation: 48,144
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B2_timing
Title: B2 Timing
Definition: dynamic(Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ), Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ))
Nodelocation: 48,272
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B1_price_hike
Title: B1 Price HIke
Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.005, 0.001 ), Normal( 1.005, 0.001 ))
Nodelocation: 48,104
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance New_discovery
Title: New Disoveries
Definition: dynamic(lognormal(0.5,2), lognormal(0.5,2))
Nodelocation: 48,336
Nodesize: 40,16
Valuestate: 1,8,44,1006,714,1,SAMP
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:4~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Undefined ]

Close Parameters_affecting

Module Processes_affecting_
Title: Processes Affecting Energy Demand
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Nodelocation: 328,112
Nodesize: 60,36
Diagstate: 1,464,192,466,371,17

Module Energy_exp
Title: Energy Expenditure Impacts on Economy
Description: The increasing price of energy is thought to impose a dra~~
g on economic growth.  This feedback on the economy is calculated here~~
.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 16 Sep, 1994 12:19
Defaultsize: 44,20
Nodelocation: 360,200
Nodesize: 56,36
Diagstate: 1,39,50,462,295,17

Chance Agg_fuel_expenditure
Title: Aggregate Regional Energy Expenditures
Definition: Dynamic((Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*P_fuels),Fuels)*1G),(Sum(~~
(Fuel_use_by_region*P_fuels),Fuels)*1G))
Nodelocation: 184,208
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Fuel_s_sha
Title: Fuel's Share of GNP
Definition: Dynamic((Agg_fuel_expenditure/Economic_activity_by),(Agg_f~~
uel_expenditure/Economic_activity_by))
Nodelocation: 328,208
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Fuel_price
Title: Fuel Price Difference
Units: $/GJ
Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),(P_fuels-Slice(P_fuels,Inter~~
vention,1)))
Nodelocation: 176,88
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,677,510,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Fuel_quant
Title: Fuel Quantity Difference
Units: EJ
Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),((-Fuel_use_by_region)+Slice~~
(Fuel_use_by_region,Intervention,1)))
Nodelocation: 176,32
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,45,45,667,429,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective Dead_weight_energy
Title: Dead Weight Loss Due to Energy Expenditures
Definition: dynamic(
Energy_ex_sens*1G*sum(Fuel_price*Fuel_quant,fuels)/2 + Rent_correction~~
, Energy_ex_sens*1G*sum(Fuel_price*Fuel_quant,fuels)/2 + Rent_correcti~~
on)
Nodelocation: 344,88
Nodesize: 44,28
Windstate: 1,40,50
Valuestate: 1,59,39,604,556,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-40G~
Ymaximum:0~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Rent_in_coal
Title: Rent in Coal Production
Definition: Dynamic(((Rent_extra*Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3))*1G~~
),((Rent_extra*Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3))*1G))
Nodelocation: 72,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,232,242
Valuestate: 1,56,66,607,430,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Rent_correction
Title: Dead Wt Loss Rent Correction
Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),(Rent_in_coal-Slice(Rent_in_~~
coal,Intervention,1)))
Nodelocation: 176,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,4,43,676,420,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Energy_exp

Objective Q_fuels_2
Title: Total Fuel Demands
Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Fuel_use_by_region,Regions_12),Sum(Fuel_use_by~~
_region,Regions_12))
Nodelocation: 320,288
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,598,25,416,303,1,STAT
Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1

Module Drivers_of_growth_in
Title: Economic & Technological Drivers of Energy Demand
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Nodelocation: 360,104
Nodesize: 56,36
Diagstate: 1,120,63,477,219,17

Chance Pot_gr_reg_e_demand
Title: Potential Growth in Regional Energy Demand
Description: The growth in energy demand is determined by aeei and eco~~
nomic growth.~
Dynamic(1,1,1,
if Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1] < 0 
then ((1+Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1]/3)/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)) el~~
se
((1+Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1])/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)))
Definition: Dynamic(1,1,1,(If (Gnp_through_time[Time-1]<0) Then ((1+(G~~
np_through_time[Time-1]/3))/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)) Else (~~
(1+Gnp_through_time[Time-1])/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5))))
Nodelocation: 216,88
Nodesize: 56,24
Windstate: 1,125,98
Valuestate: 1,56,65,596,510,0,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0.5~
Ymaximum:1.5~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:7~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Potential_regional_e
Title: Potential Regional Energy Demand
Description: This is the baseline energy quantities by region.
Definition: Dynamic(F_e75,F_e80,F_e85,F_e90,(Fuel_use_by_region[Time-1~~
]*Pot_gr_reg_e_demand))
Nodelocation: 304,136
Nodesize: 56,24
Windstate: 1,72,82
Valuestate: 1,43,142,440,395,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Module Rate_of_change_in_en
Title: Rate of Change in Energy Efficiency
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 4, 1995 10:19 PM
Nodelocation: 104,32
Nodesize: 52,24
Diagstate: 1,102,87,462,277,1

Chance Rate_of_change_in_e1
Title: Rate of Change in Energy Efficiency
Units: %/yr
Description: Rate of change in the aggregate energy intensity of the e~~
conomy
Definition: dynamic(Effic_sens*realized_alpha, Effic_sens*realized_alp~~
ha)
Nodelocation: 168,232
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,216,226
Defnstate: 1,81,212,719,308,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:0~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-2~
Ymaximum:8~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:2~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10
Reformdef: [Time, Time ]
Reformval: [Time, No_yes_index ]
Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0

Chance Efficiency
Title: Efficiency of Energy Technologies
Description: The AEEI is model is uncertain.  Received wisdom is that ~~
it is somehow fixed.  Our work suggests it is induced.  Here the AEEI_~~
SWitch allows selection of one or other model.
Definition: Dynamic((If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then Emf_aeei Else alpha),~~
(If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then Emf_aeei Else alpha))
Nodelocation: 168,104
Nodesize: 44,24
Windstate: 1,254,302
Valuestate: 1,52,67,782,546,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Regions_12, Time ]

Chance Uncertain_aeei
Title: Uncertainty in Energy Efficiency
Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(1,.1),  UF_Econ)
Nodelocation: 56,24
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Emf_aeei
Title: EMF AEEI
Description: Arnuf Grtubler of IIASA suggests the AEEI is a simple fun~~
ction of percapita growth.  EMF-14 page 10.  The coefficient used is .~~
32.  Here the AEEI is calculated according to the EMF model.
Definition: Dynamic(((Growthsen*Tech_eff_index)*Uncertain_aeei),((Grow~~
thsen*Tech_eff_index)*Uncertain_aeei))
Nodelocation: 56,80
Nodesize: 44,20
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Module Induced_technical_c2
Title: Induced~
Technical~
Change
Description: dynamic( 
Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0
else
t_1*Dp_en_regional[time-1])
Author: Hadi
Date: Sun, Jun 23, 1996 16:38
Nodelocation: 280,64
Nodesize: 48,28
Diagstate: 1,63,76,479,408,17

Alias Regional__gdp_pc1
Title: Regional ~
GDP-pc
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 144,96
Nodesize: 40,16
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453
Original: Regional__gdp_pc

Chance Compare_a
Title: Compare A
Definition: [New_alpha,Alpha]
Indexvals: ['New~
Alpha','Alpha']
Nodelocation: 376,128
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,39,42,792,554,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:4~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:11~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Self ]

Module Alpha__2
Title: Alpha ±2
Author: Hadi
Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM
Nodelocation: 96,40
Nodesize: 44,20
Diagstate: 1,56,66,472,308,17

Chance Kappa
Title: Kappa
Description: This is the intercept
Definition: -1.65 {se 0.02}
Nodelocation: 376,264
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rho1
Title: Rho1
Description: This is the coefficient for the first lagged price change~~
 ln(1+ ln ÆP)
Definition: 6.3 {se 0.14}
Nodelocation: 56,64
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rho2
Title: Rho2
Description: This is the coefficient for the second lagged price chang~~
e ln(1+ ln ÆP)
Definition: 5.1 {se .0.47}
Nodelocation: 56,112
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Rho3
Title: Rho3
Description: This is the coefficient for the third lagged price change~~
 ln(1+ ln ÆP)
Definition: 1.8 {se 0.29}
Nodelocation: 56,160
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Pt4
Title: pt 1
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen+.144, Un_scen+1.5, Un_scen+1.25, Un_scen+1, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0
else
Rho1*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-1]))) )
Nodelocation: 248,64
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,60,52,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Undefined ]

Chance Pt5
Title: pt 2
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-2] <= 0 then 0
else
Rho2*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-2]))) )
Nodelocation: 248,112
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,62,338,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Undefined ]

Chance Pt6
Title: pt 3
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-3] <= 0 then 0
else
Rho3*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-3]))) )
Nodelocation: 248,160
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,477,53,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Undefined ]

Chance New_alpha
Title: New~
Alpha
Definition: ((Pt4+Pt5)+Pt6)
Nodelocation: 376,112
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,77,82,583,447,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:5~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance New_kappa
Title: New Kappa
Description: This is a conjecture.  As an economy grows, there is a ph~~
ase over which the energy intensity increases, then falls as industry ~~
takes over from agriculture and infrastructure is developed.  Then wit~~
h the advent of a post-industrial economy the economy continues to gro~~
w while energy intensity falls.
Definition: ifall Status_of_economy <= 0 or Status_of_economy >= 1.5 t~~
hen 0 else~
ifall status_of_economy <= .75 then -Status_of_economy else Status_of_~~
economy -1.5
Nodelocation: 376,208
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,324,146,414,383,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:30K~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:7~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Status_of_economy
Title: Status of economy
Definition: Logten((Regional__gdp_pc/Diff_develop_path))
Nodelocation: 248,208
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,176,76,416,303,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:0~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-1~
Ymaximum:2~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:7~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Constant Diff_develop_path
Title: Differential Development Paths
Definition: Table(Regions_12)(
1000,500,700,100,100,750,300,200,200,1000,900,500)
Nodelocation: 56,208
Nodesize: 44,24
Defnstate: 1,97,225,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance New_alpha2
Title: New~
Alpha
Definition: (((New_kappa+Pt4)+Pt5)+Pt6)
Nodelocation: 376,160
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,77,82,583,447,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:5~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Alpha__2

Module Alpha__4__income_yea
Title: Alpha ±4~
+income+year
Author: Hadi
Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM
Nodelocation: 216,40
Nodesize: 52,24

Module Log_income
Title: Log Income
Author: Hadi
Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM
Nodelocation: 48,24
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Year2
Title: Year
Definition: normal(-.0037, 0.001)
Nodelocation: 48,64
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Log_of_income
Title: Log of income
Definition: Normal(1.7930, 06830)
Nodelocation: 48,24
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_1
Title: T-1
Definition: normal(5.4080, .1552)
Nodelocation: 48,104
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_2
Title: T-2
Definition: normal(4.9423, 0.7822)
Nodelocation: 48,144
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_3
Title: T-3
Definition: Normal(1.9038, 0.2862)
Nodelocation: 48,184
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Yy
Title: yy
Definition: Year2*time
Nodelocation: 168,64
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM

Chance Ll
Title: ll
Definition: if  ln(Regional__gdp_pc/1000) < 0 then 0 else Log_of_incom~~
e*ln(Regional__gdp_pc/1000)
Nodelocation: 168,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,184,194,440,357,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt1
Title: tt1
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen+.144, Un_scen+1.5, Un_scen+1.25, Un_scen+1,  
if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0
else
t_1*Dp_en_regional[time-1])
Nodelocation: 168,104
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt2
Title: tt2
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-2] <= 0 then 0
else
t_2*Dp_en_regional[time-2])
Nodelocation: 168,144
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Tt3
Title: tt3
Definition: dynamic( 
Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, 
if Dp_en_regional[time-3] <= 0 then 0
else
t_3*Dp_en_regional[time-3])
Nodelocation: 168,184
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Lnincome___year_alph
Title: LNIncome & Year ALPHA
Definition: {Yy+Ll+}Tt1+Tt2+Tt3
Nodelocation: 304,96
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,197,66,582,446,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-10~
Ymaximum:10~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Log_income

Module Income1
Title: Income
Author: Hadi
Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM
Nodelocation: 152,24
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Year3
Title: Year
Definition: Normal( -.0024, 0.0003 )
Nodelocation: 48,64
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Income
Title: INCOME
Definition: Normal( 0.1495, 0.04 )
Nodelocation: 48,24
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_4
Title: T-1
Definition: Normal( 5.22, 0.165 )
Nodelocation: 48,104
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_5
Title: T-2
Definition: Normal( 4.49, 0.797 )
Nodelocation: 48,144
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_6
Title: T-3
Definition: Normal( 1.64, 0.31 )
Nodelocation: 48,184
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Yy1
Title: yy
Definition: {(Year3*Time)}0
Nodelocation: 168,64
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Ll1
Title: ll
Definition: {Log_of_income1*(Regional__gdp_pc/1000)}0
Nodelocation: 168,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,184,194,440,357,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt4
Title: tt1
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~
l[Time-1]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_4*Dp_en_regional[Time-1])))
Nodelocation: 168,104
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt5
Title: tt2
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~
l[Time-2]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_5*Dp_en_regional[Time-2])))
Nodelocation: 168,144
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Tt6
Title: tt3
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~
l[Time-3]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_6*Dp_en_regional[Time-3])))
Nodelocation: 168,184
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Income___year_alpha
Title: INCOME & YEAR ALPHA
Definition: ((((Yy1+Ll1)+Tt4)+Tt5)+Tt6)
Nodelocation: 304,96
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,90,76,582,446,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-10~
Ymaximum:10~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Income1

Close Alpha__4__income_yea

Chance Intercept3
Title: Intercept
Definition: {Normal( -2.365, .0055 )}0
Nodelocation: 96,264
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_7
Title: T-1
Definition: Normal( 5.7376, 0.0836 )
Nodelocation: 96,304
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_8
Title: T-2
Definition: Normal( 5.5684, 0.7436 )
Nodelocation: 96,344
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance T_9
Title: T-3
Definition: Normal( 2.2441, 0.2528 )
Nodelocation: 96,384
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Tt7
Title: tt1
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regional[Time-1]<=0) Then 0 Els~~
e (T_7*Dp_en_regional[Time-1])))
Nodelocation: 216,304
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt8
Title: tt2
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen, (If (Dp_en_regional[Time-2]<=0) T~~
hen 0 Else (T_8*Dp_en_regional[Time-2])))
Nodelocation: 216,344
Nodesize: 44,20
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Tt9
Title: tt3
Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regional[Time-3~~
]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_9*Dp_en_regional[Time-3])))
Nodelocation: 216,384
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Alpha
Title: Alpha
Units: %pa ÆJ/$
Description: Rate of change in energy intensity.
Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then Alpha_70 Else (If (Time=1980) Then Al~~
pha_75 Else (If (Time=1985) Then Alpha_80 Else (If (Time>=1985) Then (~~
((Intercept3+Tt7)+Tt8)+Tt9) Else 0))))
Nodelocation: 376,344
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,197,66,582,446,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-10~
Ymaximum:10~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Constant Oil_p_54
Title: Oil P 54
Definition: 2.58
Nodelocation: 88,440
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_59
Title: Oil P 59
Definition: 2.33
Nodelocation: 88,480
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_64
Title: Oil P 64
Definition: 2.14
Nodelocation: 88,520
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_69
Title: Oil P 69
Definition: 1.86
Nodelocation: 88,560
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_74
Title: Oil P 74
Definition: 3.81
Nodelocation: 88,600
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_79
Title: Oil P 79
Definition: 5.11
Nodelocation: 176,440
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_84
Title: Oil P 84
Definition: 5.94
Nodelocation: 176,480
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Oil_p_89
Title: Oil P 89
Definition: 3.81
Nodelocation: 176,520
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Dp_60
Title: dp 60
Definition: (Oil_p_59-Oil_p_54)/Oil_p_54
Nodelocation: 280,440
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,406,98,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Dp_65
Title: dp 65
Definition: (Oil_p_64-Oil_p_59)/Oil_p_59
Nodelocation: 280,480
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,406,224,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Dp_70
Title: dp 70
Definition: (Oil_p_69-Oil_p_64)/Oil_p_64
Nodelocation: 280,520
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,403,347,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Dp_75
Title: dp 75
Definition: (Oil_p_74-Oil_p_69)/Oil_p_69
Nodelocation: 280,560
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,413,317,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Dp_80
Title: dp 80
Definition: (Oil_p_79-Oil_p_74)/Oil_p_74
Nodelocation: 280,600
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Alpha_70
Title: alpha 70
Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_60*T_9))+(Dp_65*T_8))+(Dp_70*T~~
_7))
Nodelocation: 376,456
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Alpha_75
Title: alpha 75
Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_65*T_9))+(Dp_70*T_8))+(Dp_75*T~~
_7))
Nodelocation: 376,496
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Alpha_80
Title: alpha 80
Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_70*T_9))+(Dp_75*T_8))+(Dp_80*T~~
_7))
Nodelocation: 376,536
Nodesize: 44,20

Close Induced_technical_c2

Chance Reference_alpha
Title: Reference Alpha
Definition: Max(Efficiency,Regions_12)
Nodelocation: 56,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,179,116,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Realized_alpha
Title: Realized Alpha
Definition: dynamic(
efficiency+new_kappa, 
efficiency+tech_diffusion*(reference_alpha - efficiency)+new_kappa)
Nodelocation: 168,176
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,571,530,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-10~
Ymaximum:10~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Tech_diffusion
Title: Tech Diffusion
Definition: If (Scenario_cdm='NO') Then 0.05 Else 0.5
Nodelocation: 288,176
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,115,229

Chance Tech_eff_index
Title: Tech Eff Index
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then 0.4 Else (If (Choose_~~
an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then 0.45 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') The~~
n 0.56 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.55 Else 0.32))))
Nodelocation: 168,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,245,275

Close Rate_of_change_in_en

Close Drivers_of_growth_in

Module Historic_t
Title: Historic Trends
Description: Historic consumption data are used to calibrate the pre 1~~
990 data.  The data we have is from WRI's database and is about region~~
al production, not consumption.  The economic growth data determines r~~
egional demand.  We used other knowledge on global fuel trades to adju~~
st the production data to reflect regional consumption levels.  The da~~
ta for all historic time periods have been adjusted although only 1990~~
 data are critical to accurate future predictions.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 16 Sep, 1994 12:19
Nodelocation: 224,40
Nodesize: 60,28
Diagstate: 1,223,182,441,209,1

Chance F_e75
Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1975
Units: EJ
Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~
ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East.  Gas and coal ~~
from Africa.  Coal and oil from CIS.~

Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(
23.5,1.5,5,4,8.5,1.6,0.5,0.2,0.35,0,0.18,0.33,
43,6.5,35,15,3,4.5,0.5,3.2,1.4,2,1,6,
15,0.33,12,18,7,0.06,1.2,2.9,13,0.5,1,1,
3,1,3,1,0.5,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25,0,0.1,1
))
Nodelocation: 216,56
Nodesize: 52,28
Windstate: 1,136,146
Defnstate: 1,24,41,394,285,0,MIDM
Reformdef: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]
Reformval: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]

Chance F_e80
Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1980
Units: EJ
Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~
ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East.  Gas and coal ~~
from Africa.  Gas, coal and oil from CIS.
Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(
25,2.4,6,8,7.5,1.8,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.25,0.25,0.5,
28,7,35,17.3,7,7,6.5,4.3,3.5,3,0.8,7,
20,0.6,8,17,9,0.3,2.6,3,14,1,1,2,
4,1.2,3.5,1,1,0.15,0.1,0.4,0.3,0,0.1,1
))
Nodelocation: 344,56
Nodesize: 52,28
Defnstate: 1,429,43,394,284,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,200,54,393,289,0,MIDM
Reformdef: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]
Reformval: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]

Chance F_e85
Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1985
Units: EJ
Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~
ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East.  Gas and coal ~~
from Africa.  Gas, coal and oil from CIS.
Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(
20,2.8,7.5,12,11,2.7,0.3,1.6,0.56,0.25,0.6,0.75,
20,7.8,29,16,8,9,3,5,3.5,4,0.8,8,
23,0.9,8,16,11,0.1,4,4.3,20,1.5,2,2.5,
4,1.3,3.5,1.2,1,0.2,0.1,1,0.45,0,0.1,1
))
Nodelocation: 216,128
Nodesize: 52,28
Defnstate: 1,25,356,395,287,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,40,62,400,310,0,MIDM
Reformdef: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]
Reformval: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]

Chance F_e90
Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1990
Units: EJ
Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~
ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East.  Gas and coal ~~
from Africa.  Gas, coal and oil from CIS.  ~

Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(
21,3.4,9,15,17.5,7.2,0.2,2.9,0.6,1,0.7,1,
22,9,32,14,7,11.5,3,8.6,5.9,6,1,11,
23.5,1,6,14,9,0.1,4,5.5,25.1,2,2,3,
4,1.3,4,1.2,1,0.2,0.1,1.3,0.5,0.1,0.1,1
))
Nodelocation: 344,128
Nodesize: 52,28
Windstate: 1,40,50
Defnstate: 1,431,355,394,285,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,439,63,398,317,0,MIDM
Reformdef: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]
Reformval: [Fuels, Regions_12 ]

Chance U_fuelq
Title: Uncertainty in Initial Fuel Quantities
Description: The initial level of fuel use is uncertain.  The coeffici~~
ent of variation has been estimated as put at 5%.  Marland (1992?).~

Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.05)+(scen_fill), UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 80,88
Nodesize: 52,24
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM

Close Historic_t

Module Trends_in_fuel_use
Title: Trends in Fuel Use
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 224,200
Nodesize: 56,36
Diagstate: 1,83,45,485,445,17

Chance P_fuels1
Title: Fuel Prices (1)
Definition: Table(Fuels1)(
P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil)
Nodelocation: 376,88
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Dp_fuels1_regional
Title: Change in Regional Fuel prices (1)
Definition: Dynamic(0,
(P_fuels1_regional-P_fuels1_regional[Time-1])/P_fuels1_regional[Time-1~~
])
Nodelocation: 240,144
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,152,162,547,410,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Intervention, Fuels1 ]

Chance Regional_carbon_taxe
Title: Regional Carbon Taxes (1)
Definition: Dynamic((Carbon_content__1_*Regional_carbon_tax),(Carbon_c~~
ontent__1_*Regional_carbon_tax))
Nodelocation: 104,88
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance P_fuels1_regional
Title: Regional Fuel Prices (1)
Definition: (P_fuels1+Regional_carbon_taxe+Regional_price_diver)
Nodelocation: 240,88
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,171,79,548,491,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:40~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:4~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Fuels1 ]

Chance Dq_fuels_regional_x
Title: Potential Change in Regional Demands
Definition: Dynamic(UN_filler*0,
(x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*Dp_fuels1_regional),Fuels1))/4),
(x_adjust*(Sum((2*F_lr_fuel_su*(Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-1]+Dp_fuels1_r~~
egional)),Fuels1))/4),
(x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*((Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-2]+2*Dp_fuels1_~~
regional[Time-1])+4*Dp_fuels1_regional)),Fuels1))/7),
(x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*(((Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-3]+2*Dp_fuels1~~
_regional[Time-2])+Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-1])+Dp_fuels1_regional)),Fu~~
els1))/4))
Nodelocation: 240,208
Nodesize: 44,28
Windstate: 1,128,93
Valuestate: 1,136,146,650,422,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective Fuel_use_by_region
Title: Fuel Use by Region
Units: EJ/Yr
Definition: Dynamic(F_e75,F_e80,F_e85,F_e90,
(Production_limits*Dq_energy_sr*Potential_regional_e*(1+Dq_fuels_regio~~
nal)))
Nodelocation: 240,320
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,139,182
Valuestate: 1,79,48,617,506,0,STAT
Aliases: Alias Regional__fuel_cons2, Alias Regional__fuel_cons1, Formnode~~
 Regional__fuel_cons3
Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:100~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:4~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10

Chance Dq_fuels_regional
Title: Inertia Limited Change in Demand
Definition: dynamic(Dq_fuels_regional_x, 
if Dq_fuels_regional_x > 1 then 1
else
if Dq_fuels_regional_x < -.5 then -.5
else  Dq_fuels_regional_x)
Nodelocation: 240,272
Nodesize: 44,24
Windstate: 1,288,338
Valuestate: 1,234,62,483,439,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-0.5~
Ymaximum:0.5~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Production_limits
Title: Production Limits
Description: if (slice(q_fuels, fuels, 1) = 0 and  slice(q_fuels, fuel~~
s, 2)=0) then array(Fuels, [0, 0, 1,  1]) else~
if slice(q_fuels, fuels, 1) = 0 then array(Fuels, [0, 1, 1,  1]) else~
if slice(q_fuels, fuels, 2) = 0 then array(Fuels, [1, 0, 1,  1]) else~
array(Fuels, [1, 1, 1, 1])
Definition: (If ((Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,1)=0) And (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,2~~
)=0)) Then Array(Fuels,[0,0,1,1]) Else (If (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,1)=0) ~~
Then Array(Fuels,[0,1,1,1]) Else (If (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,2)=0) Then A~~
rray(Fuels,[1,0,1,1]) Else Array(Fuels,[1,1,1,1]))))
Nodelocation: 112,320
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,654,308,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Fuels ]

Chance X_adjust
Title: Incomplete Adjustment
Description: This is a subjective assessment and should be taken with ~~
a grain of salt.~
If (Induced_technical_ch='NO') Then 0.8 else 0.40
Definition: If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then 0.6 else 0.30
Nodelocation: 120,208
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,276,150
Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-15291

Chance Regional_price_diver
Title: Regional Price Diversity
Definition: Table(Time,Fuels1,Regions_12)(
1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
2,2,2,2,2,0,2,2,2,2,2,0,
0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0.5,0,0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0.25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
)
Nodelocation: 240,32
Nodesize: 44,20
Defnstate: 1,88,98,724,351,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,105,130,583,425,1,MIDM
Reformdef: [Time, Regions_12 ]
Reformval: [Time, Fuels1 ]

Chance Oil_expenditures
Title: Oil Expenditures
Units: %
Definition: 100*1G*(slice(Fuel_use_by_region, fuels, 2)*slice(P_fuels1~~
_regional, fuels1, 2))/Economic_activity_by
Nodelocation: 376,320
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,59,62,662,516,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Regions_12, Time ]
Numberformat: 1,F,4,1,0,0

Chance Regional_e_shares
Title: Regional Shares of Global Markets
Definition: if fuel_use_by_region <= 0 then 0 else~
if q_fuels_2 <= 0 then 1 else~
Fuel_use_by_region/Q_fuels_2
Nodelocation: 376,376
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,0,-23,1024,667,1,STAT

Close Trends_in_fuel_use

Module Short_term_energy_bu
Title: Short Term Energy Budget Adjustment
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Nodelocation: 88,104
Nodesize: 56,36
Diagstate: 1,222,208,471,276,17

Chance Dq_energy_sr
Title: Energy Budget Adjustment
Definition: dynamic(1, 1+Dp_en_regional[time-1]*Sr_energy_e
{,
1+(Dp_en_regional[time-1]+Dp_en_regional[time-2])/2*Sr_energy_e,
1+(2*Dp_en_regional[time-1]+Dp_en_regional[time-2]+Dp_en_regional[time~~
-3])/4*Sr_energy_e})
Nodelocation: 200,208
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,720,414,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Regional_fuel_prices
Title: Regional Fuel Prices
Units: $/GJ
Description: Regional fuel price subsidies are taken away between 1990~~
 and 1995.
Definition: dynamic(Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs, 
if time < 1990 then Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs 
else
if time < 1995 then Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs/2
else
Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels)
Nodelocation: 200,24
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,58,84,627,453,0,MEAN
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Sr_energy_e
Title: Price Elasticity of Energy Demand
Definition: -.15
Nodelocation: 296,136
Nodesize: 40,28
Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-8737

Chance P_en_regional
Title: Regional Energy Prices
Definition: (Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Regional_fuel_prices),Fuels)/Sum(~~
Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels))
Nodelocation: 200,80
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,216,226,587,256,0,MEAN
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Dp_en_regional
Title: Change in Regional Energy Prices
Definition: dynamic(un_filler*0, (P_en_regional - P_en_regional[time-1~~
])/P_en_regional[time-1])
Nodelocation: 200,144
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:0~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-0.25~
Ymaximum:0.75~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Dp_en_regional1
Title: Change in Regional Energy Prices
Units: %pa
Definition: dynamic(un_filler*0, 20*(P_en_regional - P_en_regional[tim~~
e-1])/P_en_regional[time-1])
Nodelocation: 80,144
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MEAN
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:0~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-2~
Ymaximum:6~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:2~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10
Reformval: [Time, No_yes_index ]

Close Short_term_energy_bu

Module Long_run_interfuel_s
Title: Long Run Interfuel Substitution
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM
Nodelocation: 80,264
Nodesize: 52,36
Diagstate: 1,63,70,480,376,17

Chance F_lr_fuel_su
Title: LR_Fuel Substitution
Description: The off diagonal elements in the matrix are calculated as~~
 symmetric equal share of the diagonals adding up to -1 per row, as in~~
 the Jorgenson paper.
Definition: Dynamic(Table(Fuels,Fuels1)(
F_gas_el,Oil_f,Coal_f,Renewable_off,
Gas_coal,F_oil_el,Coal_f,Renewable_off,
Gas_coal,Oil_f,F_coal_el,Renewable_off,
Gas_nf,Oil_nf,Coal_nf,F_renewable_el
),Table(Fuels,Fuels1)(
F_gas_el,Oil_f,Coal_f,Renewable_off,
Gas_coal,F_oil_el,Coal_f,Renewable_off,
Gas_coal,Oil_f,F_coal_el,Renewable_off,
Gas_nf,Oil_nf,Coal_nf,F_renewable_el
))
Nodelocation: 216,160
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,206,192
Defnstate: 1,55,189,723,338,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,221,186,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformdef: [Fuels, Fuels1 ]
Reformval: [Fuels, Fuels1 ]
Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0

Chance F_gas_el
Title: Gas Elasticity
Description: This is the long run elasticity for gas consumption.  It ~~
is derived from Jorgensen's work.  The distribution is based on the re~~
gional variability found by Jorgensen in the US for 1953-1988.
Definition: Fuel_sub_sens*~
Evaluate_p(Normal(-1.4,0.1), UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 160,24
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,PDFP

Chance F_oil_el
Title: Oil Elasticity
Description: This is the long run elasticity for oil consumption
Definition: Fuel_sub_sens*~
Evaluate_p(Normal(-1.6,0.2), UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 280,24
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance F_coal_el
Title: Coal Elasticity
Description: Fuel_sub_sens*~
if scenario='B2' then Evaluate_p(b2_lrc, UF_Fuel) else Evaluate_p(base~~
_lrc, UF_Fuel)
Definition: (Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then Evalua~~
te_p(B2_lrc,Uf_fuel) Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Evaluat~~
e_p(B2_lrc,Uf_fuel) Else Evaluate_p(Base_lrc,Uf_fuel))))
Nodelocation: 160,216
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,58,309
Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance F_renewable_el
Title: Renewable Elasticity
Description: This is the long run elasticity for non-fossil consumptio~~
n.~
Dynamic((scen_fill),(Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Time>=2000) Then ((Uncertainty~~
_in_non_f*0.1) -1.2) Else ((Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.05)-2))))
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Time>=2000) Then (~~
(Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.1) -2) Else ((Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.05)-2))))~~

Nodelocation: 280,216
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,120,130
Valuestate: 1,121,130,416,303,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Gas_coal
Title: Gas-fossil~
off diagonal
Description: if Scenario='B2' then b2_gfo else base_gfo
Definition: base_gfo
Nodelocation: 160,64
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Gas_nf
Title: Gas Non-fossil~
off diagonal
Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_gas_el))/3) Else 0~~
)
Nodelocation: 160,104
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Oil_nf
Title: Oil Non-fossil~
off diagonal
Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_oil_el))/3) Else 0~~
)
Nodelocation: 280,104
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Oil_f
Title: Oil-fossil~
off diagonal
Description: if Scenario='B2' then b2_ofo else base_ofo
Definition: base_ofo
Nodelocation: 280,64
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Coal_f
Title: Coal-fossil~
off diagonal
Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_coal_el)/2, 
If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_coal_el)/3 Else -(1+F_coal_el)/2)
Nodelocation: 160,256
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Coal_nf
Title: Coal Non-fossil~
off diagonal
Description: Ifonly (Time>2020) and Other_f = 3 ~
Then (-((1+F_coal_el))) Else ~
Ifonly (Time>2020) and ((Other_f = 2) or (Other_f=1)) ~
Then (-((1+F_coal_el))/2) Else ~
 (-((1+F_coal_el))/3)
Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_coal_el))/3) Else~~
 0)
Nodelocation: 160,296
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Renewable_off
Title: Renewable off diagonal
Description: {dynamic(0, if (time >= 2000) then -(1+F_renewable_el)/3 ~~
else 0)}
Definition: base_rfo
Nodelocation: 280,256
Nodesize: 52,20

Chance Uncertainty_in_non_f
Title: Uncertainty in Non-fossil
Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(0,1), UF_Fuel)
Nodelocation: 392,216
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Base_lrc
Title: Base LRC
Definition: Normal(-1.7,0.2)
Nodelocation: 56,168
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B2_lrc
Title: B2 LRC
Definition: Normal( -2.8, 0.2 )
Nodelocation: 56,200
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Base_gfo
Title: Base GFO
Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_gas_el)/2, 
If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_gas_el)/3 Else -(1+F_gas_el)/2)
Nodelocation: 56,56
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B2_gfo
Title: B2 GFO
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 56,88
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Base_ofo
Title: Base OFO
Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_oil_el)/2, 
If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_oil_el)/3 Else -(1+F_oil_el)/2)
Nodelocation: 384,48
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B2_ofo
Title: B2 OFO
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 384,80
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance Base_rfo
Title: Base RFO
Definition: dynamic(0, if (time >= 2000) then -(1+F_renewable_el)/3 el~~
se 0)
Nodelocation: 392,272
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance B2_rfo
Title: B2 RFO
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 392,304
Nodesize: 44,20

Close Long_run_interfuel_s

Close Processes_affecting_

Variable Fuels_0
Title: Fuels_0
Definition: array(fuels, [0, 0, 0, 0])
Nodelocation: 280,312
Nodesize: 52,20

Close Demand_con

Variable Fossil_supply_lag
Title: Fossil supply lag
Units: periods
Description: This is the periods by which new discovery lags price hik~~
es in the oil and gas industry.
Definition: 2
Nodelocation: 80,240
Nodesize: 52,20

Close F_energy_mod

Objective Q_fuels
Title: Global Fuel Use
Units: EJ/Year
Description: Time trend of global fuel use in EJ per year.
Definition: Dynamic(Table(Fuels)(
Gas_produc1,Oil_produc1,Coal_produ1,Non_fossil2),Table(Fuels)(
Gas_produc1,Oil_produc1,Coal_produ1,Non_fossil2))
Nodelocation: 112,176
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,200,210
Defnstate: 1,185,194,416,303,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,135,123,644,418,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Fuel_use1, Alias Fuel_use
Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:0~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:300~
Zminimum:0.4~
Zmaximum:0.85~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Fuels ]
Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,0

Objective P_fuels
Title: Fuel Prices
Units: $/GJ
Description: Time trend of global fuel prices in $/GJ.
Definition: Dynamic(Array(Fuels,[P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil]),Arr~~
ay(Fuels,[P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil]))
Nodelocation: 112,120
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,61,58,633,517,1,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Fuel_prices
Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:40~
Zminimum:0.1~
Zmaximum:0.9~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.9]~

Reformval: [Time, Fuels ]

Module Emissions_
Title: Emissions~
Model
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 16 Sep, 1994 14:35
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 280,40
Nodesize: 60,32
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Diagstate: 1,231,68,517,272,1
Nodecolor: -13512,-11464,-1
Nodefont: Arial, 12

Module Natural_ch4
Title: CH4
Description: The sub-model where the emissions of methane are calculat~~
ed.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 10:56 AM
Defaultsize: 44,12
Nodelocation: 232,216
Nodesize: 60,12
Diagstate: 1,395,391,390,144,1
Fontstyle: Arial, 10

Objective Net_ch4
Title: Net~
CH4
Units: tons/year
Description: It is assumed that the natural sources are in rough bala~~
nce with pre-industrial sinks. Hence, they are only symbolically added~~
 in here.
Definition: 0.5*Ch4_ne+Ch4_ae
Nodelocation: 184,64
Nodesize: 32,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,86,52,676,542,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:300M~
Ymaximum:500M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Module Anthropogenic_ch4_so
Title: Anthropogenic CH4 sources
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Apr 2, 1998 5:12 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 280,32
Nodesize: 60,20
Diagstate: 1,234,37,438,454,17

Chance Ch4_ae
Title: Anthro. Sources
Units: tons/year
Definition: Dynamic(
(Ch4_ae_lfil+Ch4_ae_burn+Ch4_ne_coal+Ch4_ne_moo+Ch4_ne_AnW+Ch4_ne_rice~~
+Ch4_ne_DomW),
(Ch4_ae_lfil+Ch4_ae_burn+Ch4_ne_coal+Ch4_ne_moo+Ch4_ne_AnW+Ch4_ne_rice~~
+Ch4_ne_DomW))
Nodelocation: 360,184
Nodesize: 56,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Windstate: 1,120,130
Valuestate: 1,96,60,593,517,0,STAT
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:200M~
Ymaximum:600M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~


Variable Ch4_ae_burn
Title: BIOMASS
Units: tons/year
Definition: Dynamic((Initial_biomass_ch4+Scen_fill),((Ch4_Control*Biom~~
ass_ch4_growth)*Initial_biomass_ch4))
Nodelocation: 192,256
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,144,47,548,467,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:20M~
Ymaximum:60M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Ch4_ae_lfil
Title: LANDFILLS
Units: tons/year
Definition: Dynamic((Initial_landfills_ch+Scen_fill),(((Ch4_Control*Po~~
p_g_75_t)*Initial_landfills_ch)+Scen_fill))
Nodelocation: 192,224
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,98,53,649,450,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Ch4_ne_coal
Title: Coal Gas and Oil Emissions
Units: tons/year
Definition: Dynamic((Initial_coal_ch4+Scen_fill),((Initial_coal_ch4*Gr~~
owth_in_1[Time-1])*Ch4_Control))
Nodelocation: 192,88
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,40,50,824,578,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Ch4_ne_moo
Title: Enteric Fermentation
Units: tons/year
Description: ~

Definition: Dynamic(Initial_ef_ch4,(Pop_g_75_t*Initial_ef_ch4))
Nodelocation: 192,328
Nodesize: 52,16
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM

Variable Ch4_ne_rice
Title: RICE
Units: tons/year
Description: It is tempting to think of increasing CH4 emissions from ~~
increased demand for rice.  This model is rejected here.  The followin~~
g reasons have motivated the use of a constant emission profile:~
¥ there is little additional land available for wet paddy rice product~~
ion;~
¥ the production of paddy rice can increase if the crop rotation is ac~~
celerated; if this is done rice prodcution goes up and methane emissio~~
ns decline!  The fly in the ointment however is that with higher incom~~
es, there may well be demand for high value rices such as "Basmati" ri~~
ce.  In such a case, the crop rotation is actually longer and emission~~
 increase.  For now, the simple keep the emissios constant model is us~~
ed.
Definition: dynamic(Initial_rice_ch4, Initial_rice_ch4)
Nodelocation: 192,288
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MEAN

Chance Initial_biomass_ch4
Title: BIOMASS PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from biomass. Data from Table A1~~
.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC Sci~~
entific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([20 25 30 55 80]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,256
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_landfills_ch
Title: LANDFILL PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from landfills. Data from Table ~~
A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([20 22 25 30 70]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,224
Nodesize: 52,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_coal_ch4
Title: Coal Gas and Oil Industries PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from the fossil energy industry.~~
 Data from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary rep~~
ort to the IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([70 80 100 110 115 120]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,88
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,333,62,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_ef_ch4
Title: Enteric Fermentation PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from enteric fermentation. Data ~~
from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to~~
 the IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([65 75 82.5 100]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,328
Nodesize: 56,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_rice_ch4
Title: RICE PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from rice paddies. Data from Tab~~
le A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPC~~
C Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([20 25 30 60 150]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,288
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,PDFP
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable Ch4_ne_anw
Title: Animal Waste
Units: tons/year
Description: ~

Definition: Dynamic(Initial_waste_ch1,((Ch4_Control*Pop_g_75_t)*Initia~~
l_waste_ch1))
Nodelocation: 192,136
Nodesize: 48,16
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM

Chance Initial_waste_ch1
Title: Animal Waste PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from decomposition of animal was~~
te. Data from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary ~~
report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([20 30]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,136
Nodesize: 52,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable Ch4_ne_domw
Title: Domestic Sewage
Units: tons/year
Description: ~

Definition: Dynamic((Initial_sewage_ch4+Scen_fill),(((Ch4_Control*Pop_~~
g_75_t)*Initial_sewage_ch4)+Scen_fill))
Nodelocation: 192,184
Nodesize: 44,16
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_sewage_ch4
Title: Domestic Sewage PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from sewage treatment. Data fro~~
m Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to th~~
e IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([20 30]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 64,184
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable Reg_ch4_capture
Title: Regional Methane Capture for Use
Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~
r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax.
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+1, 
(if Reference_tax[time-1]>200 then 0.3 else 
0.975-Reference_tax[time-1]/230))
Nodelocation: 64,32
Nodesize: 56,24
Windstate: 1,194,272
Valuestate: 1,111,110,744,390,0,STAT

Variable Change_in__methane_c
Title: Change in  Methane Capture
Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~
r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax.  Here, the regio~~
nal share of CH4 use in the commercial markets is used to aggregate th~~
e regional capture figures into a global capture figure.
Definition: Sum((Slice(Regional_e_shares,Fuels,1)*Reg_ch4_capture),Reg~~
ions_12)
Nodelocation: 176,32
Nodesize: 44,24
Windstate: 1,313,92
Valuestate: 1,56,66,529,434,0,STAT

Variable Ch4_control
Title: Ch4 control
Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~
r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax.  Here, the regio~~
nal share of CH4 use in the commercial markets is used to aggregate th~~
e regional capture figures into a global capture figure.
Definition: dynamic(Change_in__methane_c, 
Change_in__methane_c * Ch4_control[time-1])
Nodelocation: 280,32
Nodesize: 40,20
Windstate: 1,322,255
Valuestate: 1,56,66,529,434,0,STAT

Close Anthropogenic_ch4_so

Module Natural_ch4_sources
Title: Natural~
CH4 sources
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Apr 2, 1998 5:12 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 80,32
Nodesize: 60,20
Diagstate: 1,-10,411,466,237,17

Chance Ch4_ne
Title: Natural Sources
Units: tons/year
Description: Natural emissions of methane from all sources.
Definition: dynamic(Ch4_ne_wetld+Ch4_ne_term+Ch4_ne_ocen+Ch4_ne_fresh+~~
Ch4_ne_hydd,
Ch4_ne_wetld+Ch4_ne_term+Ch4_ne_ocen+Ch4_ne_fresh+Ch4_ne_hydd)
Nodelocation: 330,88
Nodesize: 52,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,STAT

Variable Ch4_ne_wetld
Title: WETLANDS
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(Initial_wetland_ch4,Ch4_ne_wetld[time-1])
Nodelocation: 178,24
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,MIDM

Variable Ch4_ne_term
Title: TERMITES
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(Initial_termite_ch4,Ch4_ne_term[time-1])
Nodelocation: 178,56
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,200,210,429,369,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:10M~
Xmaximum:50M~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:100n~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~


Variable Ch4_ne_ocen
Title: OCEANS
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(Initial_oceans_ch4,Ch4_ne_ocen[time-1])
Nodelocation: 178,88
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0

Variable Ch4_ne_fresh
Title: FRESH WATER
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(Initial_fresh_ch4,Ch4_ne_fresh[time-1])
Nodelocation: 178,120
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0

Variable Ch4_ne_hydd
Title: CLATHRATES
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(Initial_hydrate_ch4,Ch4_ne_hydd[time-1])
Nodelocation: 178,152
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,152,162,824,578,1,MIDM

Chance Initial_wetland_ch4
Title: WETLAND PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from natural wet lands. Data fro~~
m Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to th~~
e IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([100 102 103 105 200]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 50,24
Nodesize: 52,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_termite_ch4
Title: TERMITE PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from termites. Data from Table ~~
A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([10 11 14 20 25 50]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 50,56
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,206,139,558,450,1,CDFP
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:10M~
Xmaximum:50M~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_oceans_ch4
Title: OCEAN PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from oceans. Data from Table A1.~~
3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC Scie~~
ntific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([5 6.5 9 12 20]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 50,88
Nodesize: 48,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_fresh_ch4
Title: FR. WATER PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Annual methane emissions from bodies of fresh water. Data~~
 from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report t~~
o the IPCC Scientific Assessment.
Definition: Fractiles([1 1.1 1.9 4 25]) * 10^6
Nodelocation: 48,120
Nodesize: 50,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_hydrate_ch4
Title: CLATHRATE PDF
Units: tons/year
Description: Emissions per year of methane from clathrate decompositi~~
on. Data from Table 1.2 page 20 of IPPC (Cambridge 1990).
Definition: Fractiles([0 0.01 0.02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 100]) *~~
 10^6
Nodelocation: 50,152
Nodesize: 56,12
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,0,STAT
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Close Natural_ch4_sources

Close Natural_ch4

Module N2o
Title: N2O
Description: NitrousOxide emissions are calculated in this module.
Author: hd10
Date: Thu, Feb 13, 1992 11:24 AM
Nodelocation: 232,104
Nodesize: 60,12
Diagstate: 1,75,47,458,272,1
Fontstyle: Arial, 9

Objective Net_n2o
Title: Net~
N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Matching sources and sinks of emissions, while assuming i~~
ndependence of paramters does not lead to a result compatible with the~~
 observed rate of release of N2O into the atmosphere.  I have construc~~
ted the ifonly statements to limit the emissions to the range suggeste~~
d in the IPCC report.
Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Sum_n2o,Uf_ghg),Evaluate_p(Sum_n2o,Uf_g~~
hg))
Nodelocation: 224,192
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,196,68,542,569,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:4M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective Sum_n2o
Title: Sum~
N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: The natural sources are assumed to be in balance with nat~~
ural sinks. Hence they are not included in the calculation of changing~~
 N20 concentrations in the atmosphere.
Definition: Dynamic(
Sum_anthropogenic_n2+Sum_natural_N2O/100, Sum_anthropogenic_n2+Sum_nat~~
ural_N2O/100)
Nodelocation: 224,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,323,244
Valuestate: 1,257,95,506,510,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Intervention, Time ]

Module Natural_n2o_sources
Title: Natural N2O Sources
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Apr 9, 1998 1:53 PM
Nodelocation: 88,80
Nodesize: 64,32
Diagstate: 1,208,206,444,331,17

Chance Initial_oceans_n2o
Title: Initial Oceans N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(1.4,2.6)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,32
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_oceans
Title: N2O Oceans
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_oceans_n2o, N2O_Oceans[time - 1] )
Nodelocation: 248,32
Nodesize: 64,20
Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM

Chance Initial_soils_low_la
Title: Initial Tropical Soils N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.  But the sum of emissions does not match thos~~
e in the IPCC report.  Hence the two items for which no emission level~~
s were given were each assigned an emission level of 1TgN so that the ~~
total emissions of N2O would match that from the IPCC.
Definition: Uniform(1.1 ,1.1)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,72
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat
Title: Initial Wet Forests N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(2.2,3.7)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,112
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_tropicalsoils
Title: N2O Tropical Soils
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soils_low_la,N2o_tropicalsoils[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,72
Nodesize: 64,20

Chance N2o_wetforests
Title: N20 Wet Forests
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat,N2o_wetforests[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,112
Nodesize: 64,20

Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat1
Title: Initial Dry Savannas N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.5,2.0)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,152
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_drysavannas
Title: N20 Dry Savannas
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat1,N2o_drysavannas[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,152
Nodesize: 64,20

Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat2
Title: Initial Temperate Soils N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0,0)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,192
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_temperatesoils
Title: N20 Temperate Soils
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat2,N2o_temperatesoils[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,192
Nodesize: 64,20

Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat3
Title: Initial Forests N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.05,2.0)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,232
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_forests
Title: N20 Forests
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat3,N2o_forests[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,232
Nodesize: 64,20

Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat4
Title: Initial Grasslands  N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.  But the sum of emissions does not match thos~~
e in the IPCC report.  Hence the two items for which no emission level~~
s were given were each assigned an emission level of 1TgN so that the ~~
total emissions of N2O would match that from the IPCC.
Definition: Uniform(1.1 ,1.1)*10^6
Nodelocation: 88,272
Nodesize: 60,20
Windstate: 1,261,189
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Chance N2o_grasslands
Title: N20 Grasslands
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat4,N2o_grasslands[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 248,272
Nodesize: 64,20

Objective Sum_natural_n2o
Title: Sum Natural~
N2O
Units: tons/year
Definition: dynamic(N2o_oceans+N2o_tropicalsoils+N2o_wetforests+N2o_dr~~
ysavannas+N2o_temperatesoils+N2o_forests+N2o_grasslands, N2o_oceans+N2~~
o_tropicalsoils+N2o_wetforests+N2o_drysavannas+N2o_temperatesoils+N2o_~~
forests+N2o_grasslands)
Nodelocation: 376,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Natural_n2o_sources

Module Anthropogenic_n20_so
Title: Anthropogenic N20 Sources
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Apr 9, 1998 1:53 PM
Nodelocation: 352,80
Nodesize: 64,32
Diagstate: 1,181,80,443,542,17

Chance Regional_n2o_control
Title: Regional N2O Control
Description: This factor modifies emissions from N2O sources through t~~
ime.
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+1, 
(if Reference_tax[time-1]>200 then 0.3 else 
0.9-Reference_tax[time-1]/230))
Nodelocation: 64,32
Nodesize: 56,20
Windstate: 1,213,328
Valuestate: 1,111,110,416,303,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_cultivatedso
Title: Initial Cultivated Soils  N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.03, 3.0)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,352
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_cultivatedsoils
Title: N20 Cultivated Soils
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_cultivatedso,((Change_in_nitrogen_e*Pop_g_~~
75_t)*Initial_cultivatedso))
Nodelocation: 224,352
Nodesize: 64,20
Windstate: 1,190,175
Valuestate: 1,136,146,593,433,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:4M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:5~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Run ]

Chance Initial_biomassburn
Title: Initial Biomass Burning N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.2, 1.0)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,432
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_biomassburning
Title: N20 Biomass Burning
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_biomassburn,
N2o_biomassburning[time-1]*Change_in_biomass_bu)
Nodelocation: 224,432
Nodesize: 64,20
Windstate: 1,109,98
Valuestate: 1,264,241,545,464,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:2M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:5~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Run ]

Chance Initial_stationaryco
Title: Initial Stationary Combustion  N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.1, 0.3)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,160
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_stationarycombus
Title: N20 Stationary Combustion
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_stationaryco,((Change_in_station~~
ary*Initial_stationaryco)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3)))
Nodelocation: 224,160
Nodesize: 64,20
Windstate: 1,465,301
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_mobilecombus
Title: Initial Mobile Combustion N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.2, 0.6)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,208
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_mobilecombust
Title: N20 Mobile Combustion
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_mobilecombus,((Change_in_transpo~~
rta*Initial_mobilecombus)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 2)))
Nodelocation: 224,208
Nodesize: 64,20
Windstate: 1,382,444
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_adipicacid
Title: Initial Adipic Acid Production  N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.4, 0.6)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,256
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_adipicacid
Title: N20 Adipic Acid Production
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_adipicacid,((Pop_g_75_t*Initial_~~
adipicacid)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3)))
Nodelocation: 224,256
Nodesize: 64,20
Windstate: 1,381,445
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Initial_nitricacid
Title: Initial Nitric Acid Production N2O
Units: tons/year
Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~
Change 1992; Table A1.5.
Definition: Uniform(0.1, 0.3)*10^6
Nodelocation: 64,304
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF
Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~
cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Var~~
ney, Cambridge University Press

Variable N2o_nitricacid
Title: N20 Nitric Acid Production
Units: tons/year
Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~
N2O emissions
Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill+Initial_nitricacid+Scen_fill),((Pop_g_7~~
5_t*Initial_nitricacid)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3)))
Nodelocation: 224,304
Nodesize: 64,20
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Objective Sum_anthropogenic_n2
Title: Sum Anthropogenic N2O
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+
(N2o_cultivatedsoils+N2o_biomassburning+N2o_stationarycombus+N2o_mobil~~
ecombust+N2o_adipicacid+N2o_nitricacid),
(N2o_cultivatedsoils+N2o_biomassburning+N2o_stationarycombus+N2o_mobil~~
ecombust+N2o_adipicacid+N2o_nitricacid))
Nodelocation: 368,296
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,104,114,525,380,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:10M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:1~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Change_in_n2o_contro
Title: Change in N2O Control
Definition: sum((regional_n2O_control*Regional_E_shares), regions_12)
Nodelocation: 128,64
Nodesize: 44,20
Reformval: [Time, Fuels ]

Variable N2o_control
Title: N2O Control
Definition: Dynamic(Change_in_n2o_contro,
Change_in_n2o_contro*N2o_control[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 128,112
Nodesize: 44,20
Reformval: [Time, Fuels ]

Chance Change_in_nitrogen_e
Title: Change in Nitrogen Efficiency in agriculture
Definition: Dynamic(1,(Change_in_nitrogen_e[Time-1]*Normal(0.9,0.1)))
Nodelocation: 88,384
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,STAT
Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215

Chance Change_in_biomass_bu
Title: Change in Biomass Burning Practice
Definition: Dynamic(normal(0.95,0.1), Change_in_biomass_bu[time-1]*nor~~
mal(0.95,0.1))
Nodelocation: 96,464
Nodesize: 60,20
Valuestate: 1,56,66,435,414,1,SAMP
Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0.8~
Ymaximum:1.2~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:5~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Run ]

Close Anthropogenic_n20_so

Close N2o

Module Carbon
Title: Fossil Carbon
Description: This is the carbon emissions module.  Fossil emissions, ~~
the biospheric sink and land use emissiosn are all gathered here.  The~~
 node "C emissions" is where all of these come together and are passed~~
 onto the MR-H reduced form ocean uptake model.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Nov 6, 1994 5:30 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 416,88
Nodesize: 44,28
Diagstate: 1,144,98,406,144,1

Module Emissions3
Title: Carbon Emissions~
Management
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Nov 15, 1996 21:34
Nodelocation: 96,48
Nodesize: 60,24
Diagstate: 1,119,274,449,276,17

Objective Un_carbon
Title: Regional Carbon Emissions
Units: GT/yr
Description: I copied over the Regional sulfur emissions and hopefully~~
 this will work for carbon.
Definition: Dynamic(Sum(((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3)*(1-Co2_c~~
m)),Fuels),Sum(((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3)*(1-Co2_cm)),Fuels~~
))
Nodelocation: 200,32
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,256,201
Valuestate: 1,181,89,492,471,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Regional_carbon_emi1, Alias Regional_carbon_emis, Formnode~~
 Regional_carbon_emi2
Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:2~
Zminimum:0.05~
Zmaximum:0.95~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.9,0.95]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Module Carbon_management_by
Title: Carbon Management by Fuel
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 14 May, 1998 15:04
Nodelocation: 64,32
Nodesize: 44,24
Diagstate: 1,44,135,462,321,17

Objective Co2_cm
Title: CO2 Sequestration
Description: Evidence now abounds that at a shadow price of less than ~~
$100, it is possible to sequester carbon at source.  For now, I will i~~
mpose this on coal use, which is more centralized, and keep it at the ~~
fixed $100/TC value.
Definition: ((Inertia_limited_carb*Cm_limit)*Carbon_cm)
Nodelocation: 304,160
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,216,226
Valuestate: 1,189,83,529,519,1,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Co2_sequestration
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:0~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:4~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Carbon_cm
Title: Fossil Carbon is Sequestered
Description: I have made a simple assumption here that gas and oil CO2~~
 will be more difficult to sequester than coal, because coal is usuall~~
y consumed in a more centralized pattern.
Definition: Table(Fuels)(
Cm_gas_oil,Cm_gas_oil,Cm_coal,0)
Nodelocation: 304,104
Nodesize: 48,20
Defnstate: 1,219,291,416,303,0,MIDM

Chance Cm_time
Title: No CM backsliding
Description: The supposition is that carbon management is expensive in~~
 capital and expenses, nevertheless if the carbon price falls we do no~~
t backslide on controls.
Definition: dynamic(Mc_cm, 
if mc_cm > 1 then 1 else 
if mc_cm> cm_time[time-1] then mc_cm else cm_time[time-1])
Nodelocation: 64,200
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,409,41,352,563,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:0.1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Cm_gas_oil
Title: Control of Gas and Oil Emissions
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0.5, 
if  Cm_gas_oil[time-1] = 1 then 1 else
if carbon_tax[time-1] > max_cm_cost then 1 else 0.5)
Nodelocation: 248,32
Nodesize: 44,24
Windstate: 1,303,210
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Cm_coal
Title: Control of Coal Emissions
Definition: scen_fill+1
Nodelocation: 344,32
Nodesize: 44,24

Chance Cm_dt
Title: Rate of Change in Carbon Management
Definition: Dynamic(unc_un_scen, 
if cm_time[time-1] > 0 then
Cm_time/Cm_time[time-1] else 0)
Nodelocation: 64,120
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,409,41,414,551,0,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-0.01~
Ymaximum:0.01~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Intervention, Time ]
Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,0

Chance Inertia_limited_carb
Title: Inertia Limited Carbon Management
Definition: Dynamic(Unc_un_scen,(If ((Cm_time[Time-1]=0) And (Cm_time>~~
0)) Then 5m Else (If (Cm_dt>Cmdt_max) Then (Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_c~~
arb[Time-1]) Else (If ((Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_carb[Time-1])>Cm_time~~
) Then Cm_time Else (Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_carb[Time-1])))))
Nodelocation: 168,160
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,336,46,417,505,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Constant Cm_limit
Title: CM Diffusion Limit
Definition: 0.99
Nodelocation: 304,224
Nodesize: 44,20

Constant Cmdt_max
Title: CM Expansion Rate Limit
Definition: 9^0.5
Nodelocation: 168,224
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,MIDM

Close Carbon_management_by

Chance Transportation_fuel
Title: Transportation Fuel
Units: Ej?yr
Description: This is a rough indication of transportation fuel.
Definition: Oil_produc1
Nodelocation: 72,88
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,218,228
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Change_in_transporta
Title: Change in Transportation Combustion
Definition: Transportation_fuel/mobile1975
Nodelocation: 208,88
Nodesize: 44,24
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Stationary_fuel
Title: Stationary Fuel
Units: Ej?yr
Description: This is a rough indication of transportation fuel.
Definition: gas_produc1+coal_produ1
Nodelocation: 80,160
Nodesize: 44,20
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Change_in_stationary
Title: Change in Stationary Combustion
Definition: Stationary_fuel/Stationary_1975
Nodelocation: 216,160
Nodesize: 44,24
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Stationary_1975
Title: Stationary 1975
Units: EJ/Yr
Definition: dynamic(stationary_fuel, Stationary_1975[time-1])
Nodelocation: 144,200
Nodesize: 40,12
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Mobile1975
Title: Mobile1975
Units: EJ/Yr
Definition: Dynamic(Transportation_fuel,Mobile1975[Time-1])
Nodelocation: 136,112
Nodesize: 36,12
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Emissions3

Module Cost_of_abatement
Title: Cost of Abatement
Author: Hadi
Date: Fri, Nov 15, 1996 21:34
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 288,48
Nodesize: 60,24
Diagstate: 1,250,39,444,370,17

Objective Abatement_expediture
Title: Abatement Expeditures
Units: $/Y
Definition: Cost_of_abatment_wit
Nodelocation: 200,224
Nodesize: 52,20
Valuestate: 1,80,62,623,518,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Carbon_abated
Title: carbon abated
Units: TC/Y
Description: This is the level of emissions reductions due to the poli~~
cy interventions
Definition: ((Slice(Un_carbon,Intervention,1)-Un_carbon)*1G)
Nodelocation: 320,16
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,61,156,638,497,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-5G~
Ymaximum:5G~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:11~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Learning_index
Title: Learning Index
Description: Triangular( 0.75, 0.85, 0.95 )
Definition: Ipcc_price_sce2
Nodelocation: 72,32
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM

Objective Cost_of_abatment_wit
Title: Cost of Abatment With or w/o Learning
Definition: dynamic(Marginal_cost, Marginal_cost+Ld*Cost_of_abatment_w~~
it[time-1])
Nodelocation: 200,144
Nodesize: 44,28
Valuestate: 1,126,121,544,523,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:100G~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:3~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Marginal_abatement
Title: Marginal Abatement
Definition: dynamic(Carbon_abated, 
Carbon_abated - Carbon_abated[time-1])
Nodelocation: 320,72
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,40,50,651,432,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Marginal_cost
Title: Marginal Cost
Definition: carbon_tax*Marginal_abatement
Nodelocation: 320,128
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,187,206,460,335,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Ld
Title: Are there Economics of Learning?
Definition: if Scenario_scale_econo = 'YES' then Learning_index else 1~~

Nodelocation: 72,112
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM

Module Carbon_management_ec
Title: Carbon Management Economics
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: 14 May, 1998 15:04
Nodelocation: 72,192
Nodesize: 44,24
Diagstate: 1,284,210,435,220,17

Objective Mc_cm
Title: Fractional Carbon Management
Description: Current assessments suggest that the least expensive CM t~~
echnologies start at about $31/TCO2, and rise to 90 at their extreme H~~
erzog et al. (1997). In $ per Tonne of Caron these figures are 44/12 h~~
igher.  The opportunities for CM do not start at $110/TC however, ther~~
e are some low hanging fruit which should be included.  If available r~~
egionally. An example is coal-bed methane.  Japan does not have any of~~
 this, but China does.  So, there is a regional multiplier indicating ~~
availability of these CM management options at lower control costs.
Definition: dynamic(unc_UN_scen, if Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] < min_~~
cm_cost then 
Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] / (min_cm_cost*10) else
if Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] > max_cm_cost then 1 else
0.1+(Regional_carbon_tax[time-1]-min_cm_cost)/(max_cm_cost-min_cm_cost~~
))
Nodelocation: 216,168
Nodesize: 44,24
Windstate: 1,102,243
Valuestate: 1,72,82,612,499,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:-1u~
Ymaximum:1u~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]
Reference: Herzog et al. (1997)

Chance Mc_cm1
Title: Marginal Cost of Carbon Management
Description: Current assessments suggest that the least expensive CM t~~
echnologies start at about $30/TCO2, and rise to 90 at their extreme H~~
erzog et al. (1997).  The equivalent numbers per ton of Carbon is
Definition: sample(Uniform( 110, 330 ))
Nodelocation: 216,88
Nodesize: 44,24
Reference: Herzog et al. (1997)

Chance Max_cm_cost
Title: Max cost
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+max(Mc_cm1, run),
if ld_counter > 0 then
ld^(1/ld_counter)*max_cm_cost[time-1] else
max_cm_cost[time-1])
Nodelocation: 320,88
Nodesize: 32,12
Windstate: 1,120,130
Valuestate: 1,120,130,513,533,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:114.4~
Ymaximum:114.4~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Chance Min_cm_cost
Title: Min cost
Definition: dynamic(min(Mc_cm1, run),
if ld_counter > 0 then
ld^(1/ld_counter)*min_cm_cost[time-1] else
min_cm_cost[time-1])
Nodelocation: 112,88
Nodesize: 36,12
Valuestate: 1,266,222,416,303,1,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:200~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Variable Ld_counter
Title: Cumulative CM Experience
Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0, 
If LD_counter[time-1] >= 1 then  LD_counter[time-1]+ 1 else
if Regional_carbon_tax[Time-1]>=15 Then 1 else 0)
Nodelocation: 216,32
Nodesize: 44,20
Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:8~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:200~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Close Carbon_management_ec

Chance Ipcc_price_sce2
Title: IPCC Price Scenario II
Description: Degree prices fall with experience measured as a doubling~~
 of installed capacity.
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.~~
9) Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.9) E~~
lse (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.9) Else ~~
Triangular(0.75,0.85,0.95))))
Nodelocation: 192,32
Nodesize: 52,20

Objective Av_cost_of_c_seq
Title: Average Cost of Carbon Sequestration
Units: $/tC
Definition: if carbon_abated < 0 then 0 else~
if Abatement_expediture <=0 then 0 else~
Abatement_expediture/Carbon_abated
Nodelocation: 320,224
Nodesize: 40,24
Windstate: 1,99,277
Valuestate: 1,56,66,455,405,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Close Cost_of_abatement

Close Carbon

Objective Global_carbon_emissi
Title: Global Carbon Emissions
Units: PgC/yr
Description: The landuse change and fossil fuel emissions are added up~~
 here.
Definition: Dynamic((Sum(Un_carbon,Regions_12)+Co2_land_use),(Sum(Un_c~~
arbon,Regions_12)+Co2_land_use))
Nodelocation: 416,160
Nodesize: 48,16
Windstate: 1,274,291
Valuestate: 1,231,89,578,517,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Global_carbon_emiss1, Formnode Global_carbon_emiss2
Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:2~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:4~
Ymaximum:20~
Zminimum:0.05~
Zmaximum:0.95~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:8~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]
Numberformat: 1,F,4,0,0,0

Module So2
Title: SO2
Description: Sulfate, oragnic carbon, and elemental carbon emissions a~~
re calculated in this module.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Nov 6, 1994 5:30 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 232,72
Nodesize: 60,12
Diagstate: 1,41,201,518,317,17

Module Sulfur_dio
Title: Sulfur Dioxide Control
Description: Sulfur controls are a function of income, and technologic~~
al development.
Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi
Date: Thu, Mar 10, 1994 3:33 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 272,40,0
Nodesize: 44,24
Diagstate: 1,153,92,588,353,21

Function F_s_growth(x0, g, max, time)
Title: S_growth
Description: This feeds into the diffusion of controls for sulfur.
Definition: max/(1+(max/x0-1)*exp(-g*time))
Nodelocation: 336,288,0
Nodesize: 40,20
Windstate: 1,459,197
Paramnames: X0, G, Max, Time

Chance F_growth
Title: Growth in~
S Controls
Description: Time dynamics of the improvement in sulfur controls.
Definition: Dynamic(Initial_contrate_so2,(If ((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1~~
]/F_threshold)>0.3) Then 0.3 Else (If ((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1]/F_thr~~
eshold)<F_growth[Time-1]) Then F_growth[Time-1] Else (Regional__gdp_pc~~
[Time-1]/F_threshold))))
Nodelocation: 264,160,0
Nodesize: 40,20
Windstate: 1,84,72
Valuestate: 1,101,82,628,425,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance F_x0
Title: Initial Control levels
Description: This is the initial level of sulfur controls, from which ~~
the level of controls increases.
Definition: ((Intial_st_u+scen_fill)*Table(Regions_12)(
0.05,1m,0.05,0.01,5m,5m,1m,1m,1m,5m,0.04,0.04))
Nodelocation: 256,96,0
Nodesize: 40,20
Defnstate: 1,175,141,217,279,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,248,258,486,307,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Intervention, Regions_12 ]

Chance F_threshold
Title: Threshold~
for Control
Description: This is the threshold for the switching on of sulfur cont~~
rols. It varies for the different areas.
Definition: (Threshold_uncertain*Table(Regions_12)(
80K,30K,80K,30K,30K,30K,15K,30K,10K,25K,80K,60K))
Nodelocation: 144,160,0
Nodesize: 40,24
Defnstate: 1,100,171,243,299,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,MIDM

Chance Regional_l
Title: Regional Limits to SO2 Control
Description: This parameter the asymptotic limit of the logistic curve~~
 for SO2 control.
Definition: Dynamic((Technical_*Un_filler),(Technical_*Un_filler))
Nodelocation: 264,224,0
Nodesize: 36,24
Windstate: 1,102,90
Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,STAT

Chance F_control_s
Title: Sulfur~
Control
Description: The amount of sulfur emitted decreases as more controls a~~
re put into place.
Definition: Dynamic(F_x0,S_control*F_s_growth(F_x0,F_growth,Regional_l~~
,(Time-1975)))
Nodelocation: 368,160,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,209,48
Valuestate: 1,94,77,595,504,1,STAT
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:1~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:4~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:2~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:1~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~
Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~

Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10

Variable Technical_
Title: Technical Limit for SO2 Control Through Time
Description: This is the asymptotic maximum control achieved in sulfur~~
 emissions.
Definition: dynamic(.275,F_s_growth(.275,.05,Max_so2_control,(Time-197~~
5)))
Nodelocation: 160,224,0
Nodesize: 44,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,49,78,416,303,1,MIDM

Chance Threshold_uncertain
Title: Threshold Uncertainty
Description: The threshold at which the sulfur controls come on is unc~~
ertain.
Definition: (Evaluate_p((normal(1,.25)), UF_Econ))
Nodelocation: 48,160,0
Nodesize: 40,20
Valuestate: 1,72,82,428,371,0,MIDM

Chance Initial_contrate_so2
Title: Initial Rates of Introduction for SO2 Control
Description: ((Intial_st_u*Scen_fill)+Table(Regions_12)(
0.1,0.04556,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.1,0.1))
Definition: dynamic(un_scen, So2_control_startup[time-1])
Nodelocation: 144,104,0
Nodesize: 44,24
Valuestate: 1,67,48,622,407,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Chance Max_so2_control
Title: Maximum SO2 Control
Definition: if time < 1990 then 0.95 else~
if time < 2000 then 0.99 else~
if time > 2015 then 1 else 1
Nodelocation: 56,224,0
Nodesize: 40,20
Valuestate: 1,126,98,416,303,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Statslabels ]

Chance Intial_st_u
Title: Intial State Uncertainties
Description: This uncertain node has been added in order to cure a rec~~
urring problem of rectangularized arrays in DEMOS.  There is no basis ~~
for values chosen other than to fix a bug.
Definition: (Evaluate_p((normal(1,1m)), UF_Aerosol))
Nodelocation: 144,48,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance S_control
Title: S Control Scenario Modifier
Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then S_control__ipcc_a1 El~~
se (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then S_control__ipcc_a2 Else (If (C~~
hoose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then S_control__ipcc_b1 Else (If (Choose_an_~~
ipcc_scena='B2') Then S_control__ipcc_b2 Else S_control__base))))
Nodelocation: 368,112,0
Nodesize: 44,24

Objective Sulfur_control2
Title: Sulfur Control With Economic and Social Rules
Definition: dynamic(f_control_s,
if sulfur_control2[time-1] > F_control_s then sulfur_control2[time-1] ~~
else if Are_so2_emission_tol = 'Yes' then F_control_s else 
0.5*(1-sulfur_control2[time-1])+sulfur_control2[time-1])
Nodelocation: 512,160,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 1,392,319
Valuestate: 1,0,0,1024,667,1,MIDM
Reformval: [Time, Regions_12 ]

Module Modifications_to_ica
Title: Modifications to ICAM to accomodate IPCC Scenarios
Author: Default
Date: Thu, Nov 04, 1999 3:40 PM
Nodelocation: 360,40,1
Nodesize: 60,28

Chance S_control__ipcc_a1
Title: S Control ~
IPCC A1
Definition: Table(Time)(
1.3,1.4,1.4,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.1,1,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.925,0.925~~
,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95)
Nodelocation: 128,24,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Windstate: 1,395,359
Defnstate: 1,40,50,403,423,0,MIDM

Chance S_control__base
Title: S Control ~
Base
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 208,24,0
Nodesize: 44,20

Chance S_control__ipcc_a2
Title: S Control ~
IPCC A2
Definition: Table(Time)(
1.3,1.4,1.4,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.05,0.95,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0~~
.8675,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97)
Nodelocation: 144,32,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Defnstate: 1,366,82,445,508,0,MIDM

Chance S_control__ipcc_b1
Title: S Control ~
IPCC B1
Definition: Table(Time)(
1.5,1.5,1.5,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.05,0.95,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.822,0~~
.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.875)
Nodelocation: 48,24,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Defnstate: 1,366,82,174,531,0,MIDM

Chance S_control__ipcc_b2
Title: S Control ~
IPCC B2
Definition: Table(Time)(
1.5,1.5,1.5,1.5,1.3,1,0.75,0.62,0.55,0.525,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6~~
15,0.615,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.7)
Nodelocation: 72,48,0
Nodesize: 44,20
Defnstate: 1,394,73,174,531,0,MIDM

Close Modifications_to_ica

Close Sulfur_dio

Objective Reg_s
Title: Regional Sulfur Emissions
Units: TgS/y
Description: These are the emissions of sulfur for the different UN re~~
gions, based on the fuel model.  Sulfur controls and Carbon control bo~~
th remove sulfur emissions.
Definition: Dynamic(
(Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*
(1-sulfur_control2)*
(1-cm_time)),
(Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*
(1-sulfur_control2)*
(1-cm_time)))
Nodelocation: 200,112,0
Nodesize: 52,20
Windstate: 1,46,195
Valuestate: 1,56,56,635,544,1,SAMP
Nodecolor: -1,-4,19661
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:4~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:1~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Baroverlap:0~
Linestyle:10~
Frame:1~
Grid:3~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1975~
Xmaximum:2100~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:80K~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:12~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:4~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~

Fontstyle: Arial, 8
Reformval: [Time, Intervention ]

Variable Fuel_sulfu
Title: Fuel Sulfur Content
Units: kg/GJ
Description: For a global measure, we assumed that If oil has a sulfur~~
 content of .5% by mass 0.111, coal at 2.5%  by mass 0.853 g/GJ. This ~~
feeds into the amount of sulfur emitted, given the fuel mix from the f~~
uels module.  In order to get the regional emissions more accurate, we~~
 modified the sulfure contents by region. For example, the sulfur cont~~
ent of coal in the US was increased while that in Japan was decreased.~~

Def