OPEC Region: Climate Characterization

Tushar Dubey

Matt Oravetz

Sonia Yeh

I. Introduction

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is comprised of the following countries: Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Venezuela. Given that these nations span four continents, it is no surprise that the climate characteristics of OPEC nations vary tremendously. Therefore, as a simplifying assumption, for this report we focus on the Middle Eastern OPEC countries. The Middle East contains not only the majority of the OPEC states, but also the most politically powerful ones. These core OPEC countries have similar climate at present, and are likely to experience similar changes under a perturbed climate regime. Therefore, representing the climate characteristics (and associated concerns) of OPEC by those of the Middle East OPEC member states is likely to be valid.

II. Current Climate

(a) Temperature & Precipitation

The primary characteristic of the climate region is that it is extremely dry. This region is desert (arid), defined as having an average precipitation of less that 25 cm per year. The majority of the region is classified as extremely arid (<10 cm per year). Furthermore, the climate for this region is strikingly homogenous. There are essentially two prevailing patterns: coastal and inland climates. There are also minor variations due to mountainous terrain and elevation.

Examples of the interior climate are Riyadh and Baghdad (see figures 1 & 2). Average daily temperatures range from 15-35C for Riyadh, and 10-35C in Baghdad. In summer, temperatures range from a maximum in excess of 40C to a minimum around 20C. In winter, high temperatures are above 15C and minimum temperatures are around 5C. Thus, the differential between min & max temperature is 10-20C, depending on the season. Figure 3 shows the same data for a coastal climate in the city of Jeddah, located on the Red Sea in southeastern Saudi Arabia. Here we see the effect of the ocean: the temperature profile is much flatter, that is, it warms in the winter and cools in the summer (both effects are of approximately 5C in magnitude).

In order to better calibrate the reader, we searched for a climate similar to these in the United States. The temperature profile is fairly close to that of Phoenix, Arizona (Figure 4) - with puts the climate of the OPEC region in much more understandable terms.

As for precipitation, we see that all of these cities receive little rainfall - even as little as 100 mm per year. During the months of January to May, the average is about 25 mm per month, while after May precipitation is negligible.

b) Extreme Events

The desert climate of the Middle Eastern OPEC countries is itself an environmental extreme, driven by two extreme characteristics: heat and aridness. Relative humidity is low, and the potential evaporation is greater than precipitation. As mentioned above, rains are infrequent, but occur in the winter during strong storm activity. Also during the winter months, the region is susceptible to cyclones, which travel from the Mediterranean through this region to India. ENSO events figure into the prevailing global conditions that make the Middle East so arid.

c) Current climate by regions

AFRICA

Along the dry East Coast of equatorial Africa, precipitation is higher in this zone than farther north and south. The West Coast of Africa where Nigeria located received highest precipitation in this continent, up to more than 100 inches per year. Precipitation decreases with latitude as one approach the dry belt of the two hemisphere.

Algeria: Annual precipitation <10 inches. Plateau of Algeria. Despite of low altitude, the relatively high elevation ensures a relatively mild and dry climate. Because of Atlas Mountain, the winter rain, which accompanied with migratory cyclones, are prevented from invading Southern Algeria. However, some cyclones center cross Algeria and bring some winter rainfall. Quasi-stationary summer front sometimes located across Algeria. Because this front is nonexistent in the summer, the maximum precipitation is definitely in the winter. Temperature in this coaster area is milder in winter and cooler in summer than internal continent. The entire country sits on Sahara desert, therefore vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

Libyan: Annual precipitation <10 inches Weather pattern is similar as Algeria. The country boundary is the famous Libyan Desert and Sahara Desert. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

Nigeria: Annual precipitation 400~600 inches. Tropical disturbances migrate cause intensification of the precipitation. The violent local storms are accompanied with excessive rainfall and electrical phenomena. Heavy precipitation in forms of heavy showers and thunderstorm occurs during summer seasons. On occasion, the heavy downpours are resulted from tornadoes. The climate could be summarized as: 1. Cool dry season from November to February; 2. Hot season from March to May; 3. Warm rainy season from May to November. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly arable and rangeland. Land cover of the country is 34.4% crops, 23.02 pasture, 16.03 forest and 26.54 others.

MIDDLE EAST

North of the equator the dry belt extends from Iran through the Arabian Desert and the Sahara far out into the North Atlantic. Annual precipitation for this countries and relatively homogeneous dry, no more than 10 inches per year. Arabian desert and dry part of Iran belong to the dry climate, where the potential evaporation is greater than the precipitation. During cold portion of the year some of the more intense Mediterranean cyclones move across Southwest Asia to India, the pass across Syria, northern Iraq, and Persia is one of the important cyclone path.

Iran: Annual precipitation 10 ~ 20 inches. Iran has higher elevation and milder climate than Iraq. Precipitation mainly occurs with winter cyclones. However, since the moving low-pressure systems are rare and low moisture content, the total rainfall is low. Spring thunderstorm and summer monsoon produces appreciable rainfall. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly arable and rangeland.

Iraq: Annual precipitation <10 inches. Stepped type of climate. Winter and spring occur slight precipitation, which are produced by the cyclones that move eastward from Cyprus through the Persian Gulf. Spring rainfalls are often associated with thunderstorms. Predominant by hot and dry airmasses, summer is of intense heating and slight cloudiness. In the winter, the eastward movement of cyclones cause abrupt temperature changes with warm air in the front and followed by very cold air. The cold air originated from cold plateau of Iran. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly arable and rangeland.

Kuwait: Annual precipitation <10 inches. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

Qatar: Annual precipitation <10 inches. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

Saudi Arabia: Annual precipitation <10 inches. The major portion of Arabia has a desert climate. Summer convention precipitation occurs in the mountain region, therefore, the regional climate is mild with warm summer rain and winter dryness. The winter cyclones we mentioned above only bring slight winter rainfall. Except southern mountain Arabia, very high temperatures prevail during summer. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

UAE: Annual precipitation <10 inches. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert.

ASIA

Indonesia: Annual precipitation 80 ~ 100+ inches. The island group lies entirely within tropical region, consequently, tropical rain-forest climate predominant. Warm and moisture air all year round ensures uniformly high temperatures and very little seasonal variation. Temperature is only slightly different due to elevation. Heavy precipitation, squall and thunderstorms are probably the most frequent region in the world. The amount of cloudiness is not particularly high since it favors alternate period of clear and cloudy. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly desert. Vegetation and land use in this country is mostly arable and rangeland.

LATIN AMERICA

Venezuela: Annual precipitation 20 ~ 80 inches. Latitude 5 north. average frequency of thunderstorms between October and March is 10. The country is located in tropical area, The weather is warm and the wind from Atlantic ocean carry vast amount of precipitation. The most prominent topographical feature of South America is the lofty chain of mountain extend from Venezuela to Cape Horn. There are some small areas of high land in the south of the country, they have an important influence on the nearby vicinity climate. The northern part of South America is located on the outer extremity of the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic anticyclone. A trough of low pressure is located near the equator in all seasons. This doldrums belt oscillates with the season along the coastline, and approximate mean location of the doldrums belt of low pressure in July is located on 5N, where Venezuela is located. In the continental region there is a regime of tropical rains with a summer maximum and a winter minimum depending on the presence or absence of unstable maritime air. During winter the maritime air of the Northern Hemisphere causes only light rains. The temperature is uniformly high, and the annual amplitude is small. Venezuela is basically a forest country, vegetation and land use in this country is mostly arable and rangeland. The country has 35.53% of land is forest, 19.84% is pasture, 4.32% is crops and 40.32% others. The country has faced 12.19% of relative change of forest from 1971~1986.

III. Potential Changes

As stated before, Middle Eastern OPEC countries are characterized by extreme head and aridity. It can be expected that climate change will exacerbate these characteristics, and the already hot environments of OPEC countries will become even hotter. The IPCC chapter about the impacts of a changing climate on deserts cites a study by Greco et al. in which the predicted temperature increases range from 0.5 to 2.0C, with greater increases in summer. The same study also predicts that while some desert regions will receive more rainfall under a warming climate, most deserts will remain extremely arid. Specifically, the northern Arabian desert is predicted to become more dry, while the southern Arabian desert will experience greater rainfall. Nevertheless, it is postulated that the present variation in rainfall at sites with 100 mm annual rainfall is sufficiently high that fluctuations due to climate change are not very likely to produce significant alternations from the present variation.

Even if potential global warming scenarios will not increase precipitation in the Middle East, it is likely to do so in other regions that are important in determining the climate of the area. For instance, higher temperature and increased precipitation may increase the frequency and severity of the Mediterranean cyclones. Furthermore, global warming may result in a rise of sea level which is expected to range from range from 0.1 to 0.5 meters (4 to 20 inches) by the middle of the next century, according to present estimates of IPCC. The OPEC member states have coastal areas, including many cities and other infrastructure related to oil production and shipping. These are likely to be vulnerable to potential sea level rise.

Most of the climate of members of OPEC countries are dry, hot and arid, except Indonesia, Venezuela and Nigeria. A potential serious desertification problem predicted by most of the climate models should cause special interests by OPEC countries.

Desertification often happens at arid or semi-arid areas, ecosystems that have low rainfall, long dry seasons, recurrent droughts, and low vegetation cover are susceptible to such changes. Currently most of the climate projection models predict higher frequency and intensity of desertification would occur. Many scientists try to observe the desertification patterns in the world through updating techniques, such as satellites. However, no substantial agreement on such patterns can be attributed to increase temperature, if they ever observe such patterns. Nevertheless, desertification would be the main issue we would highlight for middle-east countries in the next discussion.

AFRICA (Nigeria)

As like other part of the world, the country is facing the problem of serious land degradation. According to U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimation of the proportional land use change from 1971~1986, a dramatic change of forests (23.6%) into both cropland and asture.

LATIN AMERICA (Venezuela)

Scientists projects the probable biological impacts of climate change in Northern South America would alter the amount and the pattern of precipitation, the occurrence of extreme events include drought, hurricanes, and the EL Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The vegetation at higher altitude may become similar to those in lower elevation. And because ENSO may not be able to function as it used to be due to CO2 elevation consequence, during ENSO years, precipitation in this area may actually lower. Extreme events and drought may be more likely to happen.

ASIA (Indonesia)

All climate models predict an increase of precipitation in East Asia, especially for South East Asia, an enhancement of summer monsoons flow is expected. Therefore, there would be more precipitation and higher temperature expected.

References

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1996.

World Travel Guide Online < http://www.wtgonline.com>, 1997.

New York Public Library, Science Desk Reference, 1995.

Climatology, Bernhard Haurwitz, James Austin, 1944.