HDGC LUNCHTIME SEMINARS


2004

January 14, 2004 - HADI DOWLATABADI, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INSTITUTE FOR RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY, LIU INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL STUDIES AND ZOSIA BORNIK, GRADUATE STUDENT "Explorations in regime change: B-Thalassaemia, and the interplay of technological change and social norms."
Abstract: Thalassaemia is an inherited blood disorder most commonly found in a geographic band extending from the Mediterranean basin to Southeast Asia. Like the various sickle cell disorders it is a local biological evolution of the human system to ameliorate impacts of malaria. In its mild form, it leads to anemia. In its more severe forms it is debilitating and leads to death in the absence of medical intervention. In this talk we will present an overview of the disease, emergence of medical interventions to prolong the life of patients, development of diagnostic skills for population screening, adoption of new social norms to discourage intermarriage between gene carriers, prenatal diagnosis and early termination of pregnancies. We will present observations from Cyprus, Iran and the UK where pre-existing social norms were challenged in different ways and have responded with interesting similarities and differences.

January 29, 2004 - BENOIT MOREL, SENIOR LECTURER - CMU:EPP
"Making the electric powergrid more reliable"

Abstract: The powergrid is a very large dynamical system which at times can have catastrophic behavior. August 14 was an example of catastrophic failure which took place while the state variables of the system were within their margin of security. An improved situation awareness is desirable to avoid future disasters, whether they are due to natural causes or malicious attacks.
We propose new mathematical tools which together with improved information technology platforms, have the potential to inform far more deeply about the dynamical state of the grid than is the case today, and would detect instabilities much earlier.

February 4, 2004 - MAHESH PATANKAR & ANAND PATWARDHAN, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECH "Environmental policies and resulting outcomes - an analysis of transport sector case studies in India"
Energy use in the transport sector, and the environmental impacts associated with vehicular pollution are important policy issues. Environmental policy in this sector is usually driven by local air quality concerns, and often focuses on changing fuel use. Examples include the switch from leaded to unleaded petrol, the use of ethanol and improved fuel quality standards. Many of these policies have also been adopted in developing countries, at varied rates, and with varied success. In practice, there is considerable variation in the drivers of policy; the specific policy instruments and policy approaches; and the final outcomes of policy in terms of improved environmental quality. Other indicators for the success of policy approaches may include the time taken for changes to happen, and their sustenance in the market. This paper develops a framework for examining the linkages between policies, technological change and market outcomes, based on an analysis of the adoption / diffusion of CNG (compressed natural gas) as an automotive fuel, in Mumbai and Delhi. These case studies demonstrate the complexities of policy formulation, and the factors that determine the rate and extent of policy success. The framework provides a useful approach for the analysis of policy intervention, as well as insights for more effective policy design.

February 13, 2004 - ROBERT LEMPERT, SENIOR SCIENTIST, RAND, SANTA MONICA, CA "Robust Deceisionmaking"
Climate-change policy-making confronts a wide range of significant scientific and socioeconomic uncertainties. How experts should best characterize climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers -- via probabilities, scenarios, or other methods -- has emerged as an important debate. This talk will describe the robust decisionmaking approach to characterizing climate-change uncertainty. In contrast to predict-then-act approaches, which assess risks prior to evaluating alternative strategies, robust decisionmaking aims to generate policy options whose satisfactory performance is maximally insensitive to uncertainties and then characterizes the residual risks of choosing such policies. This process also offers a systematic connection between scenario and probability-based approaches.

February 18, 20044 JAMES F. REYNOLDS, PROFESSOR, DUKE UNIVERSITY
"The interactive role of human and environmental dimensions in the desertification debate"
I will summarize a new synthetic framework for understanding and responding to desertification that emerged from the 88th Dahlem workshop on ³An Integrated Assessment of the Ecological, Meteorological and Human Dimensions of Global Desertification². We refer to this framework as the Dahlem Desertification Paradigm (DDP). I will examine one thread of the DDP framework: the chain of logic that follows from the assertion that a simultaneous consideration of both the human and environmental aspects of desertification is critical in order to make advances in dealing with desertification and land degradation. Importantly, these linkages are highly nonlinear. For example, coupled human and environmental parts of the system change over time, and the rate of development of appropriate local environmental knowledge (LEK) can be instrumental in the rates and directions of these changes. Given the increasing rates of change being imposed our worlds, and the particular difficulties in developing experiential knowledge quickly in variable arid environments, I conclude that support for better integration of LEK with the scientific method is one critical pillar in creating a learning society in drylands.

February 25, 2004 - NICK SHORR, POST-DOC FELLOW, EPP:HDGC
"In Search of Civic environmentalism: some clues from adolescent environmental concerns and understandings"

In 1995, Kempton, Boster and Hartley published a book called Environmental Values in American Culture. In it, they summarize their research interviewing and then surveying samples of 11 populations expected to have contrasting views of environmental issues, e.g. Earth First!ers, Congressional staffers, laid-off sawmill workers. While we can question the adequacy of the samples’ sizes, the researchers offer compelling evidence for what they take to be their central finding. To wit: despite some important differences, we Americans somehow came to share, by the early 1990s, a common core of values towards Nature and towards anthropogenic environmental degradation; concern for what people are doing to Nature became a part of our common culture. While we might consider this finding a hopeful one, we might well remain skeptical. If it existed then, what happened to it? If it exists now, why isn’t it more obvious, more apparent? Do we now share a common culture? And if we do, how important is Nature to it?

March 3, 2004 - GARY YOHE, MARINE ECONOMIST, WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY
"AR4 - Help Wanted"

Abstract: A review of the status of preparations for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC including: structure with particular reference to the synthesis of adaptation and mitigation and likely progress in Working Group II's continued consideration of adaptation in the context of sustainable development. Several examples of "assessable" new literature will be presented or anticipated.

March 18, 2004 - HENNIE LOTTER, PHILOSOPHY PROFESSOR, RAND UNIV, JOHANNESBURG -THE TRANSBOUNDARY PROTECTED AREAS RESEARCH INITIATIVE (TBPARI) SEMINAR
"Should Elephants be culled?"
Professor Hennie Lotter commenced work on the ethics of elephant culling little more than a year ago. He has no association with any conservation NGOs/Non-profits and will present an independent opinion.

March 24, 2004 - UPASNA SHARMA & ANAND PATWARDHAN, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
"Assessing impacts as changes in economic output"
Conventionally, the impacts of climate hazards such as cyclones or floods have been measured through the changes in human, social and economic capital, typically represented by stock variables such as population, built property and public infrastructure, livestock etc. In this paper we develop an alternative approach where we explore whether the impacts can be detected in terms of changes in economic output, specifically, changes in the time series of agricultural production. We find that when examined at an appropriate level of spatial and temporal resolution, statistically significant changes are observed in agricultural production resulting from cyclone occurrence. This approach is likely to have a number of potential benefits from the policy perspective.

March 31, 2004 - TIM MCDANIELS, DIRECTOR, ECORISK RESEARCH UNIT, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
"Steps towards policy analysis for global change issues: a synthesis from the CISHDGC values, learning and decision processes project."
Abstract: This talk is an attempt to gain feedback from colleagues on a synthesis paper now in progress that consolidates findings from our work for the CISHDGC over the last several years. It has three points of departure: (i)the editorial essay by Morgan et al about the inadequacy of conventional tools of policy analysis for global change issues; (ii) the sustainability science paper by Kates, et al, which put forward a science research agenda but no approach to policy analysis for global change and sustainability issues; and (iii) the contrast between "hard" and "soft" systems analysis. This presentation will argue that, taken together, several of the projects completed in recent years for the center have developed and applied tools that contribute to a broad approach to policy analysis for global change issues. The talk emphasizes aspects of values, valuation, learning and decision processes, as well as drawing the work of others in the center on adaptation, analytical tools and evaluating robust strategies.

April 7, 2004 - BILLIE TURNER, PROFESSOR AND R. GILMORE PONTIUS JR, ASST PROFESSOR CLARK UNIVERSITY, WORCESTER, MAINE
Billie Turner's presentation: "Classification for Integrated Land-Change Science"
Gil Pontius' presentation: "MULTIPLE-SCALE PATTERN RECOGNITION: Application to Drought Prediction in Africa”
The evaluation of maps lies at the heart of many important global change research activities, for example global climate modeling. Therefore, it is imperative that scientists have appropriate statistical tools to compare patterns in maps. I present a new method to compare two spatial patterns using algorithms that have been developed via the funding supplied by the Center for the Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change. The technique compares two maps of a real variable to examine how scale influences the comparison in terms of both overall magnitude and spatial distribution of the variable. The technique is applied to assess a model that predicts vegetation in southern Africa as a function of El Nino. Results show that the model is better than a null model at predicting the quantity of vegetation, but worse than a null model at predicting the location of the vegetation."

April 16, 2004 - JOSEPH L. ARVAI, SCHOOL OF NATURAL RESOURCES
THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY AND DECISION RESEARCH, EUGENE, OR

"Trick or treatment? Evaluating the quality of structured risk management decisions"
Structured decision making (SDM) approaches, based on findings from decision research and behavioral decision theory, are designed to help decision makers to (1) better understand the context of a given management problem,(2)identify and organize management objectives, (3) create and analyze alternatives with respect to their predicted outcomes, and (4) make tradeoffs across these alternatives when objectives conflict. Given the positive responses of decision makers who have used these approaches and the endorsements of a variety of researchers and practitioners, the frequency with which SDA approaches are used is growing rapidly. A short list of SDA applications, for example, includes their use for helping people to prioritize risks, set guidelines for water use by hydroelectric utilities, and develop estuarine management plans. In each of these cases, facilitators of the process argued that the use of a SDM approach helped to enhance the quality of the resulting decisions. This presentation will address a series of practical and experimental studies of structured decision making approaches focusing on process- and outcome-oriented measures of decision on quality.

April 21, 2004 - JAMES TANSEY, RESEARCH ASSOC, SDRI, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
"Living in groups, dying alone: A population health perspective on resilience"
To date much of the research on the relationship between climate change and health has focused on changes in the external physical environment: for instance, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, heat stresses and acute hazard events. Research on population health offers an additional perspective on some of the underlying causes of ill-health. Drawing on evidence primarily from industrialised countries researchers have shown that a range of social factors including unemployment, inequality, social stress and weak social networks increase the rate of a range of chronic conditions such as Coronary heart disease and hypertension as well as weakening immune systems. I argue that this is a useful literature for expanding the concepts of resilience and vulnerability. I also indicate some of the challenges of pinning down underlying causal mechanisms using research on the relationship between social networks and health.

May 3, 2004 - SHEILA JASANOFF, Pforzheimer Professor Science & Technology Studies, Harvard University
"Constitutional Implications of Global Environmental Change"
Institutional responses to global environmental change can usefully be thought of as exercises in informal constitutional development at a supranational scale. Unlike previous constitutional moments, however, this one involves explicit and concurrent innovations in science, politics, law, and public policy. In scientific terms, the global framing has altered the scales at which, and the methods by which, we seek to understand natural and social influences on the environment, as well as interactions between them. In social and political terms, environmental globalization has given rise to new concepts, institutions, actor coalitions, political strategies, and norms that transcend or compete with the politics of nation-states. This seminar discusses the implications of these coupled changes for emerging structures of global governance, focusing specifically on emerging institutions and discourses.

May 5, 2004 - H. KEITH FLORIG, Senior Research Engineer and JIANHUA XU, Doctoral Student, CMU/EPP:HDGC
"Public Involvement in Risk Management ? A Retrospective and Assessment"
Over the past 30 years, processes for managing health, safety, and environmental risks have evolved from largely expert-driven enterprises to more democratic ones. We examine the forces underlying this trend and describe cases in which public involvement has been either particularly successful or disastrous. Lingering impediments to more widespread public involvement in risk management decision will be discussed, as well as emerging methods for integrating science and public values.

May 12, 1004 - Bates College Student Research, Advisor - Peter J. Rogers
The following Bates College (Lewistown, Maine) Program in Environmental Studies students will be presenting:
Abigail Harris - Border Life: The Clash between Wildlife Conservation and Rural Poverty
Kathryn Mannle - Nurturing Seeds of Association: Democracy and Conservation through Civil Society at Masoala National Park, Madagascar
Elizabeth Morrill - Carrying the Burden: Understanding the Influences on Women's Fuel-wood Collection Practices in Northeastern Tanzania

May 19, 2004 - BARRY LYNN, RESEARCH SCIENTIST, HEBREW UNIVERSITY
"The relationship betweeen the characteristics of precipitation and extreme climate (change)variability." Abstract: This seminar explores using mesoscale models in climate change simulations. The output from these models can be used in health impact studies, and examples from such applications are shown. At the same time, the seminar discusses the sensitivity of the regional climate results to choice of model physics options, and shows that typically used (and widely accepted) parameterizations can give quite different results over seasonal time periods. The description of precipitation processes has quite large impacts on the seasonal mean temperatures, etc. Yet an investigation of the different results between the schemes reveals how changes in the timing of precipitation can lead to extreme climate (change)variability.

2003

January 15, 2003, Patrick Williams, National Program Officer, World Wildlife Fund, "The IMP Structural Adjustment Program and Environmental Degradation in Guyana: An Examination of the Forestry and Mining Sectors." This presentation intends to examine some of the major environmental impacts of SAP on Guyana by focusing particularly on the forestry and mining sectors. The paper will be divided into four main sections. It will commence with a brief introduction on the economic situation in Guyana, mainly to put into context the SAP and its elements as they are discussed in relation to the mining and forestry sectors. The second section will look at the major environmental issues that appear to emanate from the implementation of the SAP while the third section will examine the various responses to the issues highlighted. The paper will then conclude with some observations and possible suggestions to confront the environmental situation.

January 22, 2003, George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-SDS "(Mis)prediciting Adaptation to Adverse Outcomes." Many studies have found that non-patients asked to predict the quality of life associated with chronic medical conditions provide lower ratings than patients provide of their own quality of life. I will present results from a series of studies designed to understand the cause of this discrepancy.

January 31, 2003, Gary Yohe, Prof. of Economics, Wesleyan University, and Camille Parmesan, Asst. Prof, Integrative Biology, University, of Texas-Austin, "A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems." Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or meters per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

February 5, 2003, Nick Shorr, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC, "Older High School Students and Anthropogenic Environmental. Degradation: Preliminary Findings and Policy Implications." Semi-structured interviews with 44 HS juniors and seniors in the greater Pittsburgh area focused on a sequence of three questions: What things that people are doing to nature most bother/worry you? What are the most important causes for these environmental concerns? What are the most effective ways to seriously reduce/improve them? I frame this policy-relevant summary of our findings within three contexts: why civic understanding of environmental issues remains critical to the substantive mitigation of anthropogenic environmental degradation; why the relation between knowledge and efficacy are central to that understanding; and why older HS students are a particularly important population with whom to explore these relations and understandings.
The policy-relevant responses suggest a population with considerable variation both in the displayed strength of environmental concern and displayed extent of environmental knowledge, but with a structure of concern different than that assumed in the risk literature, and a view of mitigation priorities and responsibility different than that of much environmental policy. After briefly summarizing some of the key cultural models (including overextensions and lacunae) expressed in this sample, I focus on these differences in concern structure and mitigation priority, and the policy implications they suggest.
Following Kempton et al (1995), verbatim responses from interviews are being mined for use as prompts in a survey, to be conducted this spring in regional high schools.

February 12, 2003, Minh Ha-Duong, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC "Bounding Analysis Applied to Lung Cancer Risk." For cancers with more than one risk factor, the sum of estimated numbers of cancers attributed to the individual factors may exceed the total number of cases observed. In this study we bound the fraction of lung cancer occurrences not attributed to specific well-studied causes, in order to keep estimates of the less well delimited risks consistent with those of known risks. Available data and expert judgment are used to attribute portions of the observed lung cancer incidence to known causes such as smoking, residential radon and asbestos exposure, to describe the uncertainty surrounding these estimates, and quantify the interaction between pollutants. An upper bound on the residual risk is inferred using a coherence constraint on the total number of deaths and the principle of maximum unspecificity, a concept from the field of imprecise probabilities.

February 19, 2003, Asmerom Gilau, PhD. Candidate, Asmerom will talk about his home, Eritrean experience -opportunities and challenges, in environmental policy, awareness, management and impact assessment, energy, and climate change -particularly limitations faced in climate scenarios Global Circulation Models in constructing climate scenarios etc… and ask how those that failed could have been performed for best results. All interested can access the first national communications of Eritrea from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) website, http://unfccc.int/text/resource/docs/natc/erinc1.pdf.

February 26, 2003, David Keith, EPP/HDGC Faculty "Does Use of Large-Scale Wind Power Change the Climate?"

March 7, 2003, Prof. Ian Sue Wing, CAS Geography, Boston University "Induced Technical Change and the Cost of Climate Policy." This paper investigates the potential for a carbon tax to induce R&D, and for the consequent induced technical change (ITC) to lower the macroeconomic cost of abating carbon emissions. ITC is modeled within a general equilibrium simulation of the U.S. economy by the effects of emissions restrictions on the level and composition of aggregate R&D, the accumulation of the stock of knowledge, and the industry-level reallocation and substitution of intangible services derived therefrom. Contrary to other authors, I find that ITC's impact is large, positive and dominated by the latter "substitution effect", which mitigates most of the deadweight loss of the tax.

March 14, 2003, Prof. Justin Williams, Geography and Environmental Engineering, John Hopkins "Decision Models for the Selection and Design of Nature Reserves." A variety of decision models have been formulated for efficiently selecting nature reserve sites in order to protect species or other conservation features. Fortunately, most reserve selection models do not take into account the spatial aspects of reserves, such as shape and connectivity. The selected sites are likely to be scattered and without spatial coherence, which can compromise both the ecological success and the practical feasibility of reserves. In response, decision modelers have begun formulating reserve design models that control spatial attributes. We review the spatial attributes that are thought to be important in reserve design, as well as, reserve design models that have appeared in the recent literature. Modeling issues, computational issues, and the tradeoffs among competing objectives are discussed. Unexplored areas of reserve design modeling are identified. Ultimately, an argument is made for the development of models capture the dynamic interdependence of sites and species populations, and thus incorporate the reasons why spatial attributes are important.

March 19, 2003, Prof. Ed Rubin, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Center for Energy and Environmental "Carbon Sequestration and Hydrogen Economy."

March 26, 2003, Professors Carlo Jaeger and Richard Klein, Social Systems Department, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research "Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Europe."

April 2, 2003, Conrad Steenkamp, Post-Doc Researcher, Carnegie-Mellon, EPP-HDGC "A Short History of the Great Limpopo and an Outline of the Trans-boundary Protected Areas (TBPA) Research Initiative: Key Issues in Park Development." This presentation will detail and explain the Trans-frontier Protected Areas Research Initiative launched by the Center and the SAVANA-network in southern Africa, the research partnership between social and physical scientists, the research objectives and the specific research projects being launched. The objective of the presentation will be to look for synergies between the Initiative and other CMU research activities.

April 7, 2003, J. Jason West, PhD, AAAS Environmental Fellow, Environmental Protection Agency, will give a talk "Studies in Air Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Control in Mexico City." Air pollution in Mexico City is an important problem overlapping with other environment and development goals, where scientific knowledge is uncertain. Non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions are commonly underestimated and this underestimate is important for modeling ozone sensitivity. Ratios of total NMHC/NOX and CO/NOX in morning measurements are found to be greater than these ratios in the official emissions inventory, by factors of two to three. When applying the CIT three-dimensional photochemical airshed model to the IMADA measurement campaign of March 1997, the model significantly underestimates measurements of both total NMHCs and of CO when using the official emissions. A best fit to the measurements is found when increasing CO emissions by a factor of two and NMHC emissions by a factor of three. Using these corrections, the model produces good estimates of ozone and of NOX, with average normalized biases over six days of 3% and 32% respectively. Although confidence in the appropriate correction is low, the agreement of two independent methods increases our confidence. Modeled ozone peaks that occur early in the day are found to be sensitive to changes in NMHC emissions, while later peaks are NOX-sensitive.
I will also present results of the "Co-control of urban air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Mexico City," conducted at the National Institute of Ecology in Mexico. Existing studies of emissions reduction measures PROAIRE (the air quality plan for Mexico City) and separate greenhouse gas (GHG) studies are used to construct a harmonized database of options. Linear Programming (LP) is applied to analyze least-cost strategies for meeting co-control targets for multiple pollutants. We estimate that if PROAIRE measures are implemented as planned, they will reduce 3.1% of the 2010 metropolitan CO2 emissions, in addition to substantial local air pollutant reductions. Applying the LP, PROAIRE emissions reductions can be met at a 20% lower cost, using only the PROAIRE measures. When adding CO2 emissions reductions targets to PROAIRE targets, the most cost-effective solutions use PROAIRE measures for the majority of local pollutant reductions, and GHG measures for additional CO2 control. Because of synergies, there are benefits to jointly planning urban-global co-control, but we estimate that for Mexico City these benefits are often small.

April 9, 2003, Hadi Dowlatabadi, CRC Professor, University of British Columbia and Carnegie-Mellon, Adjunct Faculty, will give a presentation entitled "Towards An Adaptive Regulatory Framework." When facing new non-marginal regulations policy makers are ignorant of appropriate goals and industry about how best to respond. This leads to debates using poor models and inappropriate evidence, procedural delays, poor target setting and ideologically chosen instruments. We can do better.

April 16, 2003, Francisco Veloso, Visiting Assistant Professor "Brazilian Software: Alternative Pates To Build A World-Class Industry." The Brazilian software industry has been experiencing double-digit growth rates throughout the past decade. In 2001, the Brazilian software market was the world's 7th larger, comparable in size to the Indian or the Chinese. Despite the important growth pattern and relevance for the Brazilian economy, the software industry has mostly focused on the domestic market. This is a very different situation from what is currently being discussed as the success cases in the context of developing and industrializing countries, the so-called three I's. India, Ireland and Israel, which have been establishing their international reputation based on exports. This paper looks at how the Brazilian software industry is trying to build its capabilities based on the domestic market. First, it explores how the strong reliance on the local market has stifled the development of the industry in a number of dimensions and distorted its perception of the international market on what concerns the capabilities of the local industry. Then, it discusses how, in some areas, Brazilian software firms have been able to use the local market as a lever to develop capabilities that position them among world leaders. A roader objective is to help understand how countries aiming to use the software industry to leverage economic growth may look at the appeal and the perils of looking internally vs. externally as the appropriate driver for the development of the industry.

April 22, 2003, Prof. Robert Thornton, Department of Social Anthropology, University of Witswatersrand "Traditional Healers, Bio-medical Practice and Sexuality: Prospects and Barriers to Co-operation." This presentation will review, The Project: Traditional healers and medical doctors' responses to HIV/AIDS and potential for co-operation.

April 23, 2003, Prof. Robert Thornton, Department of Social Anthropology, University of Witswatersrand "Environment and Land in Bushbuckridge, South Africa." This talk will focus on a new book entitled 'Human Rights and the Environment: Conflicts and Norms in the Globalizing World', edited by Lyuba Zarsky, Earthscan Publications, 2002 (www.earthscan.co.uk), specifically Chapter 10, entitled "Environment and Land in Bushbuckridge, South Africa", pp. 219-240. The presentation will explain the Bushbuckridge environment and potentials for conflict and the politics of land claims and the environment.

April 25, 2003, Stuart Marks, Independent Scholar and Consultant "Community-based Wildlife Management in Southern Africa." Two locally constructed narratives from Zambia describe the actors and activities centered around two wildlife events. These stories- of a poached elephant and of a legally sanctioned harvest of hippos- suggest some of the local social/political and technical contingencies inherent in CBWM. The local details of these processes are rarely visible to outsiders, yet they are significant crafting CBWM initiatives to local circumstances. The paper advocates the necessity for examining many of the assumptions and universalistic claims for CBWM together with the need to understand social differences, diverse institutions, and environmental processes.

April 30, 2003, Minh Ha Duong, EPP, Visiting Research Fellow "Possible Global Warming Futures, An Imprecise Probability Approach." This presentation first discusses precaution when one does not have probabilities, and information is instead represented by a set of probabilities. This allows to exhibit a risk-neutral rational precautionary decision-making criteria, and to present possibility distributions, a notion introduced in Economics by Shackle in 1954.
These tools from imprecise probabilities theory are then used to assess a
possibility distribution of global warming in 2100. This numerical assessment is based on model results from the IPCC (SRES 2002) database and on the fusion of expert opinions from the Keith-Morgan (1995) elicitation survey. In this study experts judgment are fusioned without the independence assumption. The opinion of experts that exhibit a relatively much lower uncertainty than their peers is discounted.
Having this possibility distribution about global warming in 2100, next I examine how to communicate the information simply to policymakers. To solve the existing IPCC controversy about climate change scenarios, it is necessary to bridge the gap between forecasts and scenarios. To this end I propose to use possibility levels to describe imprecise information about futures. Using mathematically sound principles, I derive the following conclusion: the least surprising global warming by 2100 is 2.4 degree C, but this is no more probable than either the low or high figure of 1.1 and 4.0 degrees warming.

May 1, 2003, Prof. Rattan Lal, Director of the Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, School of Natural Resources, Ohio State University "Assessing the Societal Value of Soil Carbon Sequestration." The increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2 from 288 ppm in 1750 to 367 ppm in 2000 is attributed to two anthropogenic activities. Fossil fuel combustion has contributed about 270 + 30 Pg (Pg = petagram = 1 billion ton) and land use about 136 + 55 Pg since 1850. Of the emissions from land use change, 78 + 12 Pg is from soil carbon pool. Most agricultural soils have lost between 30 and 60% of their original pool of organic carbon, amounting to 30 to 40 Mg C/ha by plowing, low input agriculture etc. The magnitude of soil C loss is exacerbated by soil degradation caused by erosion, salinization, compaction etc. Some of the depleted C can be sequestered through restoration of degraded soils, and adoption of recommended management practices are rates ranging from 50 to 1000 kg C/ha/y. The potential of soil C sequestration in all soils of the U.S. is about 330 Tg (Tg = teragram = million ton) per year. However, soil C sequestration requires nutrients (N, P, S etc.) and other carbon-based input. Carbon is only one of several building blocks of humus. For example, conversion of 10,000 kg of carbon from crop residues into humus requires about 830 kg of N, 200 kg of P and 143 kg of S. In corollary, shifting cultivators who do not use fertilizers and other off-farm input mine soil nutrients (N, P, K, S) and in the process emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. There are also hidden costs of fertilizers (0.86 kg C/kg of N) and pesticides (4 to 5 kg C/kg of pesticides). In addition to improving crop yields on site, soil C sequestration decreases soil erosion, sedimentation, and risks of water pollution. Thus, any societal value of soil C for trading purposes must take all these factors into consideration.

May 7, 2003, Keith Florig, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC "Terrorism by Post - Alternative Risk Management Frameworks." Following the October 2001 anthrax mailings, the U.S. Postal Service was deluged with hundreds of suggestions for managing the risk posed by malicious use of the mail. To date, the USPS has adopted a number of new technologies and procedures to reduce terrorism risks, most of which have significant direct and indirect costs. This presentation will review the measures that USPS has taken so far and will address the question of how decisions to protect mail ought to be made. Various ways to frame this question will be examined, including perspectives of the USPS, security interests (e.g., Dept..of Homeland Security), and the public.

May 22, 2003, Peter Rogers, Lecturer, Environmental Studies, Bates College "Political Ecology and Methodology for Protected Areas Research in Eastern and Southern Africa" This talk provides a snapshot of a research project's methodology while it is still in the process of being created and refined. The talk examines the theoretical concerns of the project, political ecology and governmentality, and argues for the real world importance of the topics of wildlife conservation and protected area management in sub-Saharan Africa. It provides the project's governmentality-influence research questions which focus on the "how" of resource use and management. The comparative case study methodology of the project is explained, and the Serengeti-Mara area of Eastern Africa and the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park of Southern Africa are briefly described. These two cases are conceptualized as protected area complexes composed of both direct and indirect elements/units of observation. Operationalization of the project's research questions and theoretical issues is one of the most important items explored in this paper. The role of databases and computer-assisted qualitative analysis is next considered. The paper concludes by discussing debates of the theoretical position in the contemporary political ecology literature and arguing for a recognition of the key role of ecological factors in political ecology.

September 3, 2003, Benoit Morel, Senior Lecturer, CMU/EPP "How option theory can be used for technological risk management and decision under high uncertainty."

September 10, 2003, Geroge Loewenstein, Professor, CMU/SDS and Daylian Cain, PhD Student, GSIA."The Dirt on Coming Clean: Perverse Effects of Disclosing Conflicts of Interest" Conflicts of interest can lead experts to give biased and corrupt advice. Although disclosure has been proposed as a potential solution to this, we show that disclosure can have perverse effects, and might even increase bias. Disclosure may increase bias because it leads advisors to feel morally licensed and strategically encouraged to exaggerate their advice even further from the truth. Proper use of the disclosure depends on understanding how that which is disclosed, as well as the disclosure itself, might bias advice. Because people lack this understanding, disclosure can fail to solve the problems created by conflicts of interest, and in fact may even make matters worse.

September 17, 2003 - SPYROS PANDIS, PROF, CMU - CHEME/EPP "Atmospheric Particulate Matter: From the Source to the Receptor"
Atmospheric chemistry occurs within a fabric of complicated atmospheric dynamics and physics. This interplay often results in nonlinear and often counterintuitive changes of the system when anthropogenic emissions change. Atmospheric particulate matter is one of the most fascinating components of this system. Atmospheric particles can cause health problems, visibility reduction, contribute to acidic deposition and material damage, but also are a major player in the energy balance of the planet. A major goal of our research has been to gain a predictive understanding of the physical and chemical processes that govern the dynamics, size, and chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols and to link the sources of the particles with their ambient concentrations at the air pollution receptor. This presentation discusses some of the results of the Pittsburgh Particulate Matter Supersite looking at air pollution in Pittsburgh and the Northeastern US. We will review the air quality in Pittsburgh, quantify what fraction of the pollutants is locally produced or imported from other areas, identify the contributions of specific sources using some state-of-the-art measurement techniques, and then look at the effectiveness of various control strategies.

September 24, 2003 - RAHUL TONGIA, SYSTEM SCIENTIST, ISRI "Information Technology and Power Distribution/Consumption"
In this talk, I will present on the potential and role of information technology (IT) for the power sector. Specifically, I will examine the interaction of IT with power distribution and consumption -- setting aside issues of IT usage at the pool (transmission) level. I present a brief overview of the technology, desired services, and current status, and highlight some issues. Beyond automatic meter reading (AMR), I consider IT capabilities for control, operations, and new services. Extending real-time control to the appliance level might have dramatic impact on power system stability and costs. According to one estimate, reducing the peak load by a few percent can reduce the costs of electricity by over 20%. While many of the new technologies are gaining commercialization, integrated solutions are not widespread. In this environment, I present a preliminary analysis of the potential of such technologies for developing countries. Here, given they often lack what is traditional equipment in the West (like automatic reclosers, capacitor banks, Universal metering etc.) there might be an opportunity for leapfrogging. In addition, I introduce a new idea (preliminary thoughts only!) on the directionality of information flow for power distribution management.

October 1, 2003 - DAVID HUGHES, ASST PROF, RUTGERS - HUMAN ECOLO/SOC SCIENCES "When Tourists Cross Boundaries and Peasants Don’t: Scale-Making and Exclusion in the Great Limpopo"
Abstract: Southern African conservation restricts the mobility of black peasants and enhances the mobility of white tourists. Nowhere is this inequality more evident than in plans for a vast, transboundary conservation area known as the Great Limpopo. The scheme would open borders for animals and visitors while confining smallholders to small locales. How have well-meaning conservationists come to promote such a biased, structurally racist set of ideas? Disguising this bias, the Great Limpopo relies upon convoluted assumptions regarding space and time. For space, supporters of the Great Limpopo have elaborated two scales for planning and social intervention. The scheme conjures a Cape-to-Cairo bioregion and landscape of leisure, the African scale for tourists. For peasants, the same planners – especially in Zimbabwe - have crafted an intensive, place-based model of development. White tourists will expand across the African continent whereas black smallholders should involute in “communities.” Yet, within its geographical scale, each group will gain in freedom and power. This false of sense of equality extends from space to time. Southern African bioregional thinking looks to the future, imagining wildlife ranges and and profitable hotels where neither currently exists. In anticipation of unseen growth, policy-makers open borders for the tourist trade. Meanwhile, the same planners ignore the obvious peasant future of growing populations. Assuming stasis, planners close boundaries and enclose the landscape. Such untenable notions have already been overtaken by events, especially in Zimbabwe, where tourists are now afraid to travel and para-military bands destroy fences. It is time to rethink transboundary conservation in the Great Limpopo and elsewhere.

October 8, 2003 ROBERT NICHOLS, FLOOD HAZARD RESEARCH CENTRE, MIDDLESEX UNIVERSITY "Some global impacts of sea-level rise: A case study of flooding"
Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. (1999), the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on consistent sets of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The scenarios that are used include the IS92a world and the SRES emission scenarios. Some consideration of possible stabilisation pathways will also be made. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be significant problem if it is ignored, although the uncertainties are very large. The policy implications will be considered.

October 15, 2003 - NICK SHORR, POST-DOC FELLOW, EPP:HDGC
"WHAT GOOD IS FEELING BAD? Negative emotions and environmental concern among Pittsburgh teenagers"

ABSTRACT: This talk locates a conceptual convergence between two bodies of research and theory: environmental psychology and ‘emotion and appraisal’; generates one general and two specific hypotheses from this convergence; and tests these hypotheses on data from a survey of Pittsburgh teenagers. According to ‘emotion and appraisal’ theorists in psychology, negative emotions arise when a situation is perceived as threatening or damaging to the self or what it holds dear. This suggests a simple, general hypothesis: that the total reported intensity of negative emotions when thinking about a personally troubling environmental concern should correlate with other measures of the strength of that concern. Two more specific hypotheses are based on distinctions between specific negative emotions, understood as based on different appraisals of the situation and that prepare the self for divergent responses to it. These preparations can alternately spur us to change a situation that troubles us; to learn more about it; to ignore it; or to abandon difficult-to-protect objects of affection and affiliation. Environmental psychologists have identified two broad sets of factors as reliable contributors to active environmental concern: perceived personal efficacy in contributing to mitigation; and two types of knowledge, that of the negative impacts of current behavior and that of alternative, mitigating behaviors. Both of these sets of factors map onto appraisals and coping processes that distinguish negative emotions from one another. Research has supported the idea that anger and its related emotions are more conducive to feeling efficacious (i.e. that one can do something about a perceived trouble) than are sadness and fear and their close relatives. However, research has also found that angry emotions often lead to a greater foreclosure of systematic inquiry than do sad emotions, suggesting a second hypothesis that angry subjects would be less inclined to learn the details of causality or mitigation. Following semi-structured interviews with 45 high school students, we designed and administered a survey to 458 high school students regarding the environmental problems that were of greatest personal concern to them. As part of the survey, we asked subjects to report the presence and intensity of nine negative emotions they experienced when thinking about their most personally troubling environmental concern. We then measured the correlations between these self-reported emotional intensities and a) self-reports and assessed measures of perceived efficacy; and b) measures of knowledge considered most relevant by environmental concern theorists. Findings offer mixed support for the two hypotheses and suggest that the frequently reported combinations of sadness and anger may serve to reduce their liabilities for efficacy and systematic inquiry respectively. I end by suggesting some ways that further investigation into the negative emotional dimensions of civic concerns may be useful in encouraging and developing a more engaged citizenry.

October 22, 2003 - LESTER LAVE, CMU Professor, Harry B. and James H. Higgins Professor of Economics and Finance Professor, GSIA/EPP

"Should the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Be Raised?"
Environmental and energy efficiency advocates want to increase
the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. The fuel economy of the average new consumer vehicle sold has declines since 1981. Last summer, the Senate voted down a proposal to increase the standard for the average car and light truck from the current 24 mpg to 36 mpg. The Bush administration has increased the light truck standard 15% over 5 years. American car makers vigorously oppose a CAFE increase. Several economists have argued that increasing CAFE would have costs far greater than benefits. A National Academy of Sciences panel found net benefits for a small CAFE increase. We wade into this fight, throw out the chaff, and conclude that CAFE has a role to play. The first best policy would be a significant increase in gasoline taxes and increase in CAFE. If gasoline tax increases are impossible, there is still a case for increasing CAFE.

October 29, 2003 - DR. DAVID GROSSMAN, ECOLOGIST/CONSULTANT, DAVID GROSSMAN & ASSOCIATES
"Overview of the natural and human dimensions of the GLCA: Current status and key issues."

Background: Dr Grossman has been directly involved in the development of management plans for the Limpopo, Banhine and Zinave National Parks in Mozambique, and the Makuleke Region of the Kruger National Park, in South Africa. All these areas form part of the envisaged Greater Limpopo Conservation Area. His paper provides an experienced practitioner’s perspective on the planning and implementation of this transfrontier park.

November 5, 2003 - PETER ADAMS, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CMU:ECE
"Ultrafine particles and climate change"

Changes in cloud reflectivity result from increased numbers of airborne particles, and are one of the most uncertain climate forcings. Climate models need to know the number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), the subset of particles that can nucleate cloud droplets, to estimate better the magnitude of this forcing. The traditional approach has been to use empirical correlations between aerosol mass and CCN, which is convenient but obscures important physical processes that control the behavior of airborne particles. This research shows that ultrafine particles (defined as particles with diameters less than 100 nm) have an unexpectedly high impact on CCN number concentrations. Because of their negligible mass, however, the effect of these particles has been ignored by the "traditional approach". For the same reason, the existing particulate matter regulations (formulated in terms of mass loadings)have resulted in little attention to understanding the sources of ultrafine particles (direct emissions during combustion and in-situ formation).

November 12, 2003 - FRANCISCO VELOSO, VISITING PROFESSOR, CMU:EPP
"Process Management Practices and Performance: Early results from an investigation of ISO 9000 adoption in the automotive components sector"

Process management practices (such as the adoption of the ISO 9000 standard) are expected to be associated with improvements in efficiency, reduced waste, improved yields, faster times to market for new products, and improved quality in products leading to improved customer satisfaction, higher revenues, and ultimately, improved profits. Such techniques are expected to achieve such benefits by removing non-value-added or wasted steps, more tightly streamling the handoffs and connections between processes across the organization, and using measures of customer satisfaction to guide improvements. However, although efficiency improvements have been demonstrated with the application of process management techniques, studies of profit performance have been equivocal. One reason may be that as everyone in an industry adopts, it becomes harder for the additional user to attain a competitive advantage. Another reason is that such effects are likely to be moderated by firm characteristics. This project aims at studying how firm performance is influenced by the nature of the firm's technological capabilities and its behavior towards adoption of process management techniques. It draws on a longitudinal panel of firms in one industry where the adoption of such practices has become ubiquitous, the automotive supplier sector.

November 19, 2003 - MICHAEL GRUBB, IMPERIAL COLLEGE, LONDON
DEPTARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

"Technology's the answer - but what was the question? - analytic and transatlantic divides in responding to climate change."
Developing low carbon technologies is now recognized as a key element in responding to climate change, but there remain deep divisions about what this really means and implies. The talk will compare engineering, R&D-oriented conceptions of technical change with economic, demand-led views, and their diverse policy implications. The talk will conclude with looking at how these different approaches are reflected in the transatlantic political divide on responding to the issue.

December 3, 2003 - W. NEIL ADGER, TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA, NORWICH, UK
"Justice in Adaptation to Climate Change"

Abstract: Adaptation to climate change presents dilemmas of fairness, justice and equity to the international community. They include those of the responsibility of developed countries to assist developing countries in adapting to changing climate and the implications of adaptation for the
vulnerable and the marginalised. I argue that adaptation involves both distributive and Procedural justice: the former focusing on the incidence of consequences of adaptive responses and the latter on how decisions on adaptation are made. All choices of appropriate adaptive responses have consequences that can promote equity or, alternatively, exacerbate
vulnerability. Some principles of justice are more appropriate than others. I show that principles of justice depend on the nature of adaptation decisions and the evolving international discourse on adaptation, as manifest through the institutions of international treaties and negotiations. The imperative to facilitate adaptation of the most vulnerable implies a maximin principle of justice. Simple equality, desert, and utilitarian principles are subservient to this imperative. The
implications of this ranking are that international, national and everyday adaptation decisions, to be sustainable and fair, need to focus on reducing vulnerability.

December 5, 2003 - FELIX DAYO, PhD, TRIPLE-E-SYSTEMS, LAGOS, NIGERIA AND MAX HENRION, PhD, LUMINA DECISION SYSTEMS, LOS GATOS, CA "Integrated Assessment of Global Change in West Africa: Towards a model of climate, water, and agriculture." West Africa includes some of the poorest countries on Earth, with the least resources to respond effectively to climate change. Declining rainfall in recent decades, along with desertification, are already major challenges to agriculture which is mainly rain-fed. Several options, however, could help conserve water and improve agricultural yields, offering major benefits whatever future climate changes may bring. These options include expanded drip irrigation and adoption of a variety of farming methods to improve soil fertility and food production without major reliance on industrial fertilizers. Consequent increases in soil organic carbon in arable lands could increase soil fertility while simultaneously sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. Felix Dayo and Max Henrion, both EPP PhDs, will report on the first phase integrated assessment model in Analytica, designed to explore and quantify these issues and their interrelationships. This work is the initial result of the Workshop on the Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Agricultural Productivity and Water Availability in West Africa, held at Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile Ife, Nigeria on 7-10th October 2003, organized by Felix Dayo with support from the Carnegie Mellon Center for the Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change. The working group includes scientists and government representatives in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal.

December 10, 2003 - RICHARD H. MOSS PhD., DIRECTOR, CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM OFFICE "Making Climate Science Relevant to Decisionmaking" Précis: By many estimates, the US Government’s investment in climate change science is on the order of $3-4 Billion annually. Given the size of the investment and the importance of the issue, it is vital that the scientific information that is produced be useful to practical decisionmaking on a wide range of issues. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program coordinates and integrates research conducted or sponsored by 13 agencies/departments of the Federal government. A major thrust of the program is providing decision support resources to support public debate, to evaluate national policy options, and to inform ongoing management of climate-sensitive sectors and resources. The presentation will provide an overview of the decision support effort of the CCSP and raise several current program challenges as CCSP moves from planning to more active implementation efforts.

2002

January 16, 2002, Mojdeh Keykhah, Oxford University
"The Shape of Uncertainty: Implications for Global Change Decision-Making."
Catastrophe risk has long been associated with scenarios of global environmental change, including step changes in ecosystem vulnerability and the increased incidence of weather hazards. It is also a category of risk business by insurance companies worldwide, and their coverage serves to support and underpin many critical economic sectors. How do insurance companies make decisions under catastrophe risk? What are the implications for assessments and decision-making studies of global change?

January 23, 2002, Minh Ha Duong, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC and David Keith, EPP-HDGC
"Climate Strategy With CO2 Capture From the Air." It is physically possible to capture CO2 directly from air and immobilize it in geological structures. Air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy equally, so its price absolutely caps the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: irreversibility is partly alleviated. Third, because it is less coupled with the energy system, its scaleability may be better than other clean energy technologies.
On one hand, these advantages limit the total cost of a worst-case climate scenario. In an optimal sequential decision framework, the consequence is to decrease the need for precautionary short-term abatement. On the other hand, it is generally assumed that marginal cost of carbon capture and sequestration decreases with time, while marginal climate change damage increases. This implies that the final policy target will be to return atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration to pre-industrial levels. This indeed is consistent with the UNFCCC wording and with the historical experience of global ozone policy.

February 6, 2002, George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Social and Decision Sciences
"Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde: The Two Sides of Inter-temporal Choice."
This paper was presented at the Nobel Symposium on Behavioral and Experimental Economics in Stockholm.

February 20, 2002, Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University, Economics
"Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity - Moving Toward a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity." This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems' abilities to handle external stress. The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems' coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications whose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a "one size fits all" cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unit-less indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability; these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed. The method is, finally, applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River.

February 27, 2002, John Soluri, Carnegie Mellon, History Department
"Strange Fruit: Banana Breeding Programs and the Contradictions of Commodification."
The export banana trade in the Americas was built on a very narrow genetic base; a single variety -- the Gros Michel-- was virtually the only banana variety sold in U.S. markets for 70 years. Gros Michel produced large bunches of fruit that shipped well and had pleasing aesthetic qualities. However, it also proved to be highly susceptible to a number of pathogens including Panama disease and Sigatoka. The dynamics created by the spread of these two diseases during the first half of the twentieth century accelerated rates of deforestation, destabilized rural livelihoods, increased health risks for farm workers, and cut into company profit margins. As one banana breeder has remarked, "no crop better illustrates the dangers inherent in monoclone cultivation."
The Panama disease epidemic prompted both the British colonial government and the United Fruit Company to establish breeding programs during the 1920s with the shared goal of developing an export banana with resistance to Panama disease. However, creating a hybrid capable of thriving both in tropical production zones and on U.S. consumer markets proved to be a difficult task. In fact, when banana growers in the Caribbean and Central America began to replace the Gros Michel with disease-resistant varieties during the 1950s, they did not plant hybrids; instead the industry planted "land races" from Southeast Asia whose development stretched back over many centuries. The story of export banana breeding then, reveals one of the central contradictions of twentieth-century agriculture: mass-production processes tended to reduce biological diversity at local and regional levels even as they depended upon a "global" pool of genetic resources to maintain themselves.
The history of export banana breeding raises a number of policy questions related to the conservation of crop diversity in tropical landscapes shaped by local and global change processes.

March 6, 2002, Keith Florig, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"Scientific and Political Processes in EMF Risk Management."
Attention to possible health impacts of electromagnetic fields (EMFs) from power-frequencies to microwaves has waxed and waned for many years. This presentation will discuss some of the forces affecting that attention, including media interest cycles, growing use of EMF-producing devices, new epidemiologic findings, regulatory budgets, and political action by special interests. In the EMF environmental policy domain, efforts to apply a weak version of the precautionary principle have succeeded in some areas. Overall, however, if stricter EMF risk regulation is ever to emerge from the protracted competition and chaos created by these forces, a highly persuasive set of bio-effects studies would be needed, along with a coalition of supportive organizations with substantial resources and staying power.

March 13, 2002, Hadi Dowlatabadi, UBC University Fellow and EPP-HDGC Adjunct Faculty
"An Indicator for Human Development." The goal here is to devise an indicator for development. This indicator is being sought in addition to more conventional measures of water infrastructure in a region and the region's formal measures of economic performance. Defining such a metric can take many approaches, such as a focus on institutions for human cooperation and resource management. I have adopted a different path in order avoid the challenge of formal vs. informal institutions and also to try to get to the heart of the question rather than play at its periphery. In doing so, I may have become too much of a functionalist, but that is the bias in my training and how I frame problems. Here are the basic challenges inherent in defining an indicator of Human Dimensions of Development, as I see them: 1) What is meant by "human dimensions"? 2) What are the ways in which this can be measured? 3) Where are the measures most useful? In the text that follows, I offer a first attempt at an answer. I welcome critiques of both the framing and the answer.

March 18, 2002, Malik Amin Aslam, Executive Director, ENVORK
"Clean Development Mechanism Under the Kyoto Protocol: Is There a Future Role for the Market Instrument?"
The presentation commences by tracing the birth and evolution of the Clean Development Mechanism within the context of the North~South climate negotiations process. The potential of the CDM to deliver on its stated promise for sustainable development in the South is then investigated with a particular focus on the opportunity for appropriate technology transfer.
This is followed by an elaboration of the climate negotiations scenario after the US withdrawal from Kyoto and the, subsequent, political compromise reached at Bonn by the rest of the world. The implications of these developments are explored for the CDM to deduce whether there is a future role to be played by this market-based instrument within the climate change arena.

March 27, 2002, Conrad Steenkamp, Post-Doc HDGC
"The Makuleke Agreement: A South African Case Study of Co-Management and Conflict in Conservation." The paper deals with the co-management regime set in place over the northern-most section of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, as a result of a land claim by the Makuleke tribe of the Limpopo Province.
The "Makuleke Agreement" set a precedent for the resolution of conflicts between conservation and human rights objectives in the South African context, but also has international relevance. Actual implementation of the agreement, however, proved to be a rocky road in which the difficulties inherent in co-management regimes became very apparent.
The paper will deal with the following issues: 1) the participatory approach in conservation (so called Community-based Natural Resource Management); 2) the contents of the Makuleke Agreement and how it was negotiated; 3) conflicts experienced in the course of implementing the agreement; 4) the emerging critique of CBNRM.

March 28, 2002, Dr. Felix B. Dayo, Managing Director/CEO, Triple "E" Systems Associates Limited, Goodwill House, Lagos, Nigeria
"Core Research and Capacity Building on Climate Change in West Africa: An Adjunct Faculty Program." The presentation will highlight the components of a Climate Change program that is currently being put together. The program consists of two parts. First is the core research on Climate Change, which focuses on four theme areas: 1) Study of Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change in West Africa; 2) Development of a Framework for Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change in West Africa; 3) Evaluation of the Role of CDM in Promoting Sustainable Industrial Development in West Africa; 4) Modeling of the Financial Implication of the Kyoto Protocol in the West African Sub-Region.
The second theme of the program is capacity building for climate change activities in the West African Sub-Region. This will cover focused seminars and workshops in the sub-region and at international meetings to disseminate results and to build the capacity of practitioners from the sub-region. A focal component of the capacity building aspect is the training at MS and PhD levels as well as Post Doctoral exposures at EPP for selected candidates from and outside the sub-region.
The presentation will be concluded with a discussion of the methodological framework that will be utilized inn developing the TNA framework.

April 10, 2002, Prof. Richard Tol, Hamburg University and Vrije Universiteit
"Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Application of Fund". Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing vulnerability than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is rejected in all cases, except for one important one. In general, investing a dollar in emission reduction reduces impacts further than investing that dollar in general development aid. However, this is not the case for vector-borne infectious diseases (malaria) and for regions where such diseases dominate total climate change impacts (Africa). In this case, more climate-change-induced disease is avoided by stimulating development than by reducing emissions.

April 17, 2002, Joseph Arvai, The Ohio State University, Environmental Communication Analysis & Research for Policy Working Group, School of Natural Resources, "Science and Human Values: Decision Focused Approaches for Addressing Complex Environmental Problems." Both researchers and practitioners advocate public participation as a means of helping to improve decisions and overcome the persistent divisiveness and conflict that are common in many environmental management contexts. Unfortunately, relatively few studies have been conducted to help identify what components might be helpful as part of public participation processes that work to foster better informed and more widely supported environmental decisions. Two experiments were recently conducted to help fill this gap. The first involved the test of a test of a strategy to improve the quality of public input by combining themes from risk communication with the prescriptive decision process of value-focused thinking. The second compared science-based and structured, values-based treatments of information as a means of informing choices about the cleanup of contaminated sites. Results and conclusions from both studies will be discussed.

April 24, 2002, David Victor, Stanford University, Director, The Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, "Electric Power Reform in the Real World." There is a well-rehearsed theory about the reasons for reforming electric power markets and the best policies for achieving such reform. The reasons focus on efficiency and investment; the policies focus on corporatization, privatization, de-integration, and creation of independent regulators to oversee competitive markets. In the real world, especially perhaps in the developing world, the reasons are often quite different and the policies--even when implemented according to the book--seem to fail. This talk will explore the reasons for the disconnect and present some early results from a comparative study that will explore these issues in 5 countries.

May 1, 2002, Nick Shorr, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC, "The Possibilities and Challenges of Conscious Consumption: Beyond the Virtual World". Perhaps we do not fully appreciate how strange the modern consumer has been in the context of human experience: how profoundly naïve we all are regarding the sources and impacts of our goods, like children whose parents bring home gifts from some mysterious place! If the growth of trade over the past centuries has increased the distance between consumption and production and with it consumer ignorance of production and its effects, then globalization of the past decades has increased the rates of growth of distance and ignorance. Conscious Consumption may be defined as consumer interest in learning the ecological and social consequences of a products life cycle and in including this knowledge into our purchasing decisions. It is a striving towards responsibility, towards adulthood. Here, I will attempt to: 1) convey a sense of the place of the conscious consumption frontier in human experience; 2) encourage enthusiasm at the emerging possibilities of this frontier (as evidenced in the recent growth of ecolabeling and ethical investment?); 3) outline some of the ways that this frontier might improve the landscapes in which environmental engineers and policy makers work; 4) encourage an appreciation for the complex challenges of this frontier and a skepticism towards the quality and quantity of the information currently available; 5) propose strategic policy recommendations to expedite effective movement into this frontier.

May 8, 2002, Christina Fong, Carnegie Mellon, SDS, "Fairness, Incentives and Salience in the Demand for Redistribution". In this talk, I overview some of my published, recently completed, and in-progress research on behavioral motives for redistribution. My goal is to simultaneously present the pertinent findings and illustrate the mixture of empirical and theoretical tools that I use in this interdisciplinary research in public economics. Empirical research has uncovered four important behavioral factors that affect either attitudes to or actual expenditures on redistribution: beliefs about the causes of income, racial group loyalty, social proximity to the poor, and generosity that is not conditioned on the characteristics, work activities, or group membership of the recipients. However, I have found that these effects are not universal. An important problem is to uncover when these variables take effect and why. I present some current research, in which I use data and theory together to suggest a possible condition for the salience of beliefs about why the poor are poor in decisions over optimal redistribution.

May 15, 2002, Ken Strzepek, University of Colorado-Boulder, "Indices for Sustainable Resource Management: Some Generic Thoughts and An Application to Water Resources Management". There are almost as many approaches to quantifying indicators for sustainable development as definitions of Sustainability. This paper will look at some of the broader issues, present an "Index Taxonomy" and then apply that taxonomy to the area of Sustainable Water Resources Management. Lesson learned (primarily Human Dimensions) from leading the Indicator Development Unit of the United Nation's World Water Assessment Program will be shared.

May 22, 2002, Nick Pidgeon, Director of the Centre for Environmental Risk in the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, "Public Trust and Risk Policy in Great Britain after BSE: Some Evidence and Institutional Challenges". The talk argues that risk perception and acceptability is as much an issue of trust in scientific and regulatory institutions as it is a matter of 'public understanding of science or risk'. This moves the locus of risk communication away from mere one-way provision of information, to encompass two-way mechanisms for wider forms of dialogue between scientists, policy makers and the many and varied social groups which make up our society today. In Britain the BSE 'mad cow' crisis, and the ensuing Phillips inquiry into BSE, has led to recommendations for greater openness in government handling and communication of risk information, and forms a backdrop to a number of institutional and participatory innovations taking place in risk regulation and public policy. The talk argues that openness is a necessary but not sufficient condition for trust. It draws upon illustrative empirical data from a range of recent mixed-methods studies looking at public trust in health and safety regulation and also perceptions of the handling of the foot and mouth crisis, to illustrate some of the complexities of people's understandings of risk and 'trust'. Implications for policy and research are discussed.

July 10, 2002, Stephen C. Peck, President, Fleche, "Optimal Environmental Research Strategies Include Two Precautionary Principles." In recent years there has been a good deal of attention paid to the Precautionary Principle and its application in environmental decision-making. While there have been many papers written it has been hard to operationalize the principle. I believe that it is most useful to address the issue in the following way. There is usually a large amount of scientific uncertainty associated with questions of environmental protection. In many cases the best thing to do is to obtain a deeper understanding and collect more data so that a well informed decision whether or not to control emissions may be made. However there are two situations where this strategy is not optimal. One is where there is general agreement that there is a moderate to high probability that the environmental emission is harmful. In this case it may be best to neglect research and choose the policy of "Control" for emissions. This situation may be thought of as an (environmental) Precautionary Principle. Alternatively there may be general agreement that the environmental emission has a low probability of harm. Now it is best to neglect research and choose the policy of "No Control". This situation may be considered a (control cost) Precautionary Principle. The approach that we adopt in this paper is as follows. We imagine a Policymaker deciding whether to impose controls on emissions or to run the risk of allowing emissions to continue and possibly do harm. The Policymaker holds certain prior beliefs about the emissions' dangers. Before the control decision takes place, a Researcher, knowing of the Policymaker's decision problem, determines, given his own prior beliefs about the riskiness of the emissions, how precise a research program to conduct recognizing that any such program will yield only imperfect information about the danger of the emissions, but nevertheless, the more is spent on the research, the more precise the information is likely to be. The Researcher expects to update his own and the Policymaker's prior probability distributions of the riskiness of the emissions. Bayesian statistical methods are used to update prior probabilities with experimental data (characterized by likelihood functions) and thus to arrive at posterior probability distributions (Lindley).

September 4,2002, Prof. Fran McMichael, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Civil and Environmental Engineering faculty, "Uncertainty in Input-Output Calculations."

September 11, 2002, Prof. Benoit Morel, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Physics faculty. "September 11: One Year Later." In the spirit of the celebrations planned for September 11, this talk will be designed to facilitate a collective assessment of where we stand. It will be an attempt to identify what we have learned about terrorism and the challenge it represents to our society. Could our response have been better? If yes, how and in what sense? How should we look at the future and prepare for it?

September 18, 2002, Lester Lave, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Graduate School of Industrial Administration faculty. "Bio Ethanol: Achieving Energy Independence & Sustainability." Producing ethanol from biomass could power all US cars and light trucks, ending the need to import petroleum and providing a completely sustainable fuel. The several advantages of bio-ethanol can be achieved at two costs: The first cost is an additional $100-150 billion per year and the use of 300-500 million acres to grow grasses and trees.

September 25, 2002, Prof. John E. J. Gallacher, University of Wales Medical College, Epidemiology, Statistics, and Public Health, "The Epidemiologic Failure of Risk Perception Research." John E. J. Gallacher teaches in the department of Epidemiology, Statistics, and Public Health-Environmental Epidemiology. ESPH is the integration of the Department of Medical Computing and Statistics and Public Health. The department's research strategy focuses on environmental epidemiology. Areas of research include environmental health, infectious diseases, and health services.

October 2, 2002, Barry Chernoff, University of Chicago, Department of Zoology Field Museum of Natural History, " The Panatanal and Paraguay Aquatic Ecosystems: Biodiversity, Ecology and Economics of Sustainable Use." South America has the richest aquatic flora and fauna of any continent on the planet. In addition to the time of isolation of South America from the other continents, part of the reason that South America is so species rich may be the large proportion of the continent that is occupied by rivers or other water bodies. The Amazon, Paraguay and Orinoco basins comprise three of the five largest river basins in the world in terms of length and volume of water-flow. As an example using fishes, there are more than 9000 species of freshwater fishes in South America, which is approximately equal to the number of birds and 1.8 times the number of mammals in the world.
The Paraguay River basin is the second largest in South America covering more than 1,100,000 km2 over its 2,550 km course. The Paraguay River is one of only two rivers in the world that has its headwaters in the tropics and its mouth in the temperate zone. This has a critical implication for the conservation of the tropical species inhabiting the basin. Though many have assumed that the Paraguay and Amazon faunas are recently separated, the existence of ancient fossil fishes that are closely related to extant species indicates that many of the species-lineages currently inhabiting the Paraguay River basin are ancient (>30,000,000 million years).
The Pantanal is the world's largest wetlands containing more than 365,000 km2 in the upper Paraguay River basin of Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. The Pantanal is home to thousands of species of plants and animals. The Pantanal provides critical nursery grounds for many species of fishes and critical refuge or sanctuary for migratory birds, black caiman, deer, and jaguars. Yet the species that inhabit both the Pantanal and other parts of the Paraguay River are extensively and increasingly threatened due to deforestation and habitat conversion associated with agriculture and cattle ranching. The largest threat of all, including to sustainable cattle ranching and agriculture involves the Hidrovia Project that would potentially, straighten and channelize the Paraguay River and ultimately connect it to the Amazon drainage.
Studies of the community structure of the Pantanal and the Paraguay River argue strongly for the establishment of corridors and some protected areas. This approach would protect the commercial- and sports fishes with the added benefit of protecting more than 90% of the aquatic biodiversity. The plan would lead to not only sustainable use of the Pantanal and Paraguay Rivers but would also provide a currently underexploited fishery in Paraguay to help meet future world needs for protein (i.e., a food bank). The economics of sustainable use are presented in relationship to a number of the costs of non-sustainable development in the Paraguay River drainage.

October 16, 2002, Robert Margolis, Carnegie Mellon, Center for Study and Improvement of Regulation, "Experience Curves and Solar Photovoltaic Technology Policy." There is an extensive literature on learning by doing, learning by using and experience curves, going back to the 1960s. More recently there has been a growing body of literature on the potential role of learning in bringing the cost of new energy technologies in general and photovoltaic technologies in particular down to competitive levels. A number of analysts have used historical data on PV module production and prices to estimate a PV industry-wide experience curve. The resulting progress ratios vary from 0.68 to 0.84, i.e., historically PV module prices ($/Wp) have decreased in the range of 16% to 32% for each doubling of (cumulative) production. These authors argue that there has been a history of significant learning in the PV industry. Typically they go on to use progress ratios to estimate the size of the "learning" subsidy required to make PV technology widely cost-competitive in the energy marketplace. The estimated "buy-down" cost ranges from $120 million to $100 billion. Such a wide-range of estimates raises a number of questions about how analysts have been using experience curves to think prospectively about PV technology development.
In this seminar I will examine the use of experience curves for formulating photovoltaic technology policy. First, I will provide a brief overview of experience curves in general and some background information on PV technology. Second, I will discuss the application of experience curves to PV technology. Third, I will identify five key factors that help to explain the wide variation in "buy down" cost estimates, and will argue that analysts need to pay careful attention to these factors when using experience curves to think prospectively. And finally, I will discuss directions for future research.

October 23, 2002, Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting, Inc. Environmental and Energy Research, "Estimating Global Damages from Climate Change." In addressing the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, an important question is how the marginal benefits, or avoided damages, associated with controlling climate vary with particular levels of mitigation. A few studies have attempted to answer this question by using a common metric, typically dollars, to express all damages from climate change. (There are other ways to estimate marginal impacts, including identifying unique and vulnerable systems threatened by climate change, examining risk from extreme weather events, and identifying thresholds for triggering state changes in the global climate system, such as shutdown of thermohaline circulation.) While studies that aggregate damages from climate change in terms of a single metric provide useful insight about how marginal impacts change, especially at higher levels of climate change, there are a number of concerns with such studies.
In addressing the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, an important question is how the marginal benefits, or avoided damages, associated with controlling climate vary with particular levels of mitigation. A few studies have attempted to answer this question by using a common metric, typically dollars, to express all damages from climate change. (There are other ways to estimate marginal impacts, including identifying unique and vulnerable systems threatened by climate change, examining risk from extreme weather events, and identifying thresholds for triggering state changes in the global climate system, such as shutdown of thermohaline circulation.) While studies that aggregate damages from climate change in terms of a single metric provide useful insight about how marginal impacts change, especially at higher levels of climate change, there are a number of concerns with such studies.

October 30, 2002, Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University, along with Kris Ebi, EPRI, "Approaching Adaptation: Parallels and Contrasts Between the Climate and Health Communities." Public health prevention and climate change adaptation share the goal of increasing the ability of nations, communities and individuals to cope effectively and efficiently with challenges and changes. Public health researcher approach from the perspective of protecting and enhancing the health and well-being of individuals and communities. Climate researchers approach adaptation from a perspective that can trace its roots to the natural hazards community.

November 6, 2002, David Gerard, Carnegie-Mellon, EPP and Lester Lave, Carnegie-Mellon, GSIA/EPP/CEIC, "Technology-Forcing Automobile Emissions Provisions of the 1970 Clean Air Act: Forcing Invention or Innovation?" The 1970 Clean Air Amendments required 90 percent reductions in the emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides for 1975 and 1976 model year vehicles. These are known as technology-forcing regulations, because the standards exceed what could be met with known technologies, and consequently generated significant pressure not only on automakers, but also on the EPA, Congress, and the courts. Although the statutory deadlines were not met in a timely fashion, US manufacturers developed two marquee technologies - the catalytic converter (oxidizing catalysts) to reduce HC and CO, and the three-way catalyst to simultaneously reduce HC, CO, and NOx. Ford and GM began widespread installation of oxidizing catalysts in 1975, and most US autos were equipped with the devices by 1977. The widespread diffusion of a three-way catalyst had to wait until 1981. Even so, US producers continued to struggle to keep CO and NOx emissions low. Indeed, US automakers did not meet the standards set in the 1970 statute until 1993.
In this paper we seek to learn about the dynamics of the technology-forcing regulations by examining the regulatory process that unfolded between 1971 and 1981. We begin by reviewing the economic theory of technology-forcing regulations, and the factors that could lead firms to increase or reduce their R&D into emissions control technologies. Next, we use this theory to inform our two case studies. First, we look at EPA's successful effort to force the development and installation of the catalytic converter. Next, we investigate possible reasons why the three-way catalyst was so slow to develop. We conducted interviews with a number of the principal stakeholders from the automakers, the EPA, and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to augment the considerable body of evidence published histories, court decisions, and economic analyses related to the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments. Finally, we offer some tentative conclusions about technology-forcing regulations lessons from our case study. Specifically, we find that regulatory pressure is more likely to be effective when regulators are technologically sophisticated and are attempting to force improvements in a known technology. In contrast, regulatory pressure is likely to be much less effective if the regulators are uncertain about which technology to force or the emissions control requires sophisticated new technology to work. Overall, the technology-forcing process is fraught with uncertainty, and is particularly vulnerable to unforeseen complications.

November 15, 2002, Drs. Talaue Mcmanus and Keene Meltzoff, University of Miami, "Initiative for Adaptive Management: Reframing A Shared Vision." We will discuss our coastal fieldwork experiences in various parts of the world, and how these have led to our current goal: to establish an adaptive framework through which local coastal populations become active stewards of tropical artisanal fisheries. We will describe how we aim to facilitate mutual learning with partners at the grassroots in creating the visualization and mapping of local knowledge. This will include thinking about AM's midterm and long term goals of conflict resolution and development of a common information network of globally shared participant-observation experiences.

November 20, 2002, Dr. Athanasios Nenes, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, "Aerosol Indirect Effect: The Elusive Component of Climate Change." The effects of aerosols on clouds are recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change. This uncertainty arises from the sheer complexity of aerosol-cloud processes, and from the wide range of length scales involved in cloud-aerosol interactions. We will discuss the importance and challenges of resolving aerosol chemical composition, and present recent advancements in developing a general aerosol-cloud relationship based on first principles modeling. Furthermore, we will discuss the current state of instrumentation used in studying aerosol-cloud interactions.

December 4, 2002, Ragnar Lofstedt, director, Risk Management, Kings College, "The Evolving Risk Management Field in Europe: Some Insights and Speculations." The EU has been concerned about better regulation. Regulatory simplification seen as a prerequisite for EU enlargement (1985) Edinburgh 1992 summit better regulation seen as a priority, however, not much has happened. This is now changing. Commission concerned about two areas in particular: (1) Better regulatory preparation need to be as rigorous as possible based on a minimum standards of public consultation and draw in expertise need to be coherent. (2) Regulation needs to be implemented in the member state countries: No uniform implementation; Growing problem of compliance; Rules implemented slowly; Regulations are too elaborate (and many poorly conceived); Laws are not based on consensus; Laws are made too flexible (especially the case of directives); Many unrealistic; Little consultation with affected parties; Some unfair (Swedish woodcock hunting season); Overwhelm national institutions: hence some ignored and others adopted in a nationalistic way.

December 11, 2002, Sarosh Talukdar, Carnegie Mellon ECE Faculty, "The Trouble with Electricity Markets." Electricity markets can affect our lives as profoundly as computers, bridges and airplanes. But markets are designed less carefully. The SMD (standard market design) proposed by FERC is the latest example of insufficient care.
I will compare markets to other engineered artifacts, point out the deficiencies in the market-design process, and suggest some remedies, specifically, the use of software agents for testing and verification. (The emergent behaviors of simple agents can be extremely complex, and it may be possible harness this complexity for the study of market dynamics.)

December 18, 2002, Neil Leary, Start, Science Director, AIACC, "Vulnerability of People, Places and Systems to Environmental Change." The consequences of environmental change are not uniform. They differ for different people, places and times. This is the clear picture that emerges from studies of the impacts of global environmental change as well as observations of the distribution of impacts of natural hazards, the incidence of hunger and famine, the problems of land use and land cover change, and the spread and toll of HIV/AIDS and reemerging infectious diseases. The responses to the ensuing risks will also differ, and should differ, for different people, places and times.

 

2001

HDGC LUNCH TIME SEMINAR SERIES


January 16, 2001, Paul Rutter, Green Operations Technology, British Petroleum-Amoco, United Kingdom Division
This is an informal, non-technical talk about BP's Lower Carbon Growth Strategy with some examples of what BP is doing on hydrogen, solar and gas etc. This might stimulate some questions, criticisms etc., which will be welcomed and explored in discussion. The evolution of BP's position on climate policy will also be discussed.


January 18, 2001, Scott Farrow, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation
"Merging Risk Assessment and Real Options: A Proposal for a Quantitative Approach to the Precautionary Principle." Outside of economics, risk assessment is a growing presence in the evaluation of environmental and public health risk. However, economists' core approach to such assessment and management, benefit-cost analysis, often fails in practice to implement a transparent role for uncertainty. Concurrently, environmental advocates are proposing a new management criterion based on a vaguely framed "Precautionary Principle." This presentation will structure and demonstrate how risk assessment techniques and decision-making criteria under uncertainty and irreversibility can be combined. The result is to augment standard benefit-cost techniques and define a "precautionary" threshold for action compared to standard economic approaches.


February 1, 2001, Minh Ha Duong, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC and Centre Internationale de Recherche sur L'Environment et le Development (CIRED) France
"Transparency and Control in Engineering Integrated Assessment Models." This paper discusses transparency and control in integrated assessment models from a software engineering point of view. License agreements of selected climate change analysis models MERGE, IMAGE, DICE and MARKAL are reviewed to see how they fit conventional scientific practices and modern open-source software development. We discuss why the GPL should not apply. We identify standardizing data files formats as a key to further improvements.


February 8, 2001, Ed Rubin, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Center for Energy and Environmental Studies
"Multi-Pollutant Emission Control of Electric Power Plants." Electric power plants are a major source of the air pollutants associated with health and ecological damages, and of the greenhouse gases linked to global climate change. Historically, power plants have reduced air pollutant emissions on a piecemeal basis in response to new regulations for individual pollutants (mainly particulate matter, SO2, and NOx). Now there is growing interest in a broader multi-pollutant perspective that would simultaneously address criteria air pollutants, air toxins, and greenhouse gases. SO2, NOx, mercury, and CO2 are the main targets of current policy proposals. This talk will review the technological options for reducing these emissions at electric power plants. It will draw upon ongoing research at CMU to illustrate some of the ways in which the effectiveness and cost of multi-pollutant controls are affected by the choice of emission control strategies for air pollutants and greenhouse gases. A good understanding of these interactions is critical for sound policy analysis.


February 22, 2001, Wes Cohen, Carnegie Mellon, EPP- Social and Decision Sciences
"Protecting Their Intellectual Assets: Appropriability Conditions and Why U.S. Manufacturing Firms Patent (and Not)." Our survey shows that firms typically protect the profits due to invention with a range of mechanisms, including patents, secrecy, lead-time advantages, and the use of complementary marketing and manufacturing capabilities. Of these mechanisms, patents tend to be the least emphasized by firms in the majority of manufacturing industries, and secrecy and lead-time tend to be emphasized most heavily. We also find that firms patent for reasons that often extend beyond directly profiting from a patented innovation through either its commercialization or licensing. In addition to the prevention of copying, the most prominent motives for patenting include the prevention of rivals from patenting related inventions ("i.e., "patent blocking"), the use of patents in negotiations, and the prevention of suits. Firms commonly patent for different reasons in "discrete" product industries, such as chemicals, versus "complex" product industries, such as telecommunications equipment or semiconductors. In the former, firms appear to use their patents commonly to block the development of substitutes by rivals, and in the latter, firms are more likely to use patents to force rivals into negotiations. Policy implications are discussed.


March 1, 2001, Henry Willis, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"It's Not Easy Thinking Green: Public Perceptions of Ecological Risks." What factors are important in perceptions of threats to the natural environment? Although there has been a great deal of research on perceptions of health and safety risks, only a small handful of studies have addressed environmental risks, and none have attempted to characterize environmental risks for risk-ranking purposes. In a series of studies, we (a) generated a set of attributes for characterizing environmental risks; (b) assessed the relevance of these attributes to a risk-ranking task; (c) analyzed the relationships among a subset of these attributes using multiple analytic techniques; (d) analyzed the relationships between the resulting risk dimensions and judgments of overall risk, acceptability, and the need for additional regulation; and (e) compared insights gained from the aggregate sample to those gained at the individual level.


March 8, 2001, Scott Matthews, Carnegie Mellon, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Green Design Initiative

"Economic and Environmental Implications of Online Retailing: A Case Study of Book Publishing." The advent of the Internet and e-commerce has brought a new way of marketing and selling many products, including books. The system-wide impacts of this shift in retail methods on cost and the environment are still unclear. While reductions in inventories and returns provide significant environmental savings, some of the major concerns of the new e-commerce business model are the energy and packaging materials used by the logistics networks for product fulfillment and delivery. In this paper, we analyze the different logistics networks and assess the environmental and cost impacts of different delivery systems. We find that the definition of analysis system boundaries and input assumptions determines the overall assessment of economic and environmental impacts of e-commerce for book retailing. With a return (remainder) rate of 35% for best-selling books, e-commerce logistics are less costly and create lower environmental impacts, especially if private auto travel for shopping is included. Without book returns, costs are comparable.


March 15, 2001, Rahul Tongia, Carnegie Mellon, EPP

"Telecom and Data Networks in India: The Other Infrastructure." This talk will talk about the present state of data networking in India, and Carnegie Mellon's involvement. I will present a brief overview of the history, as well as some possible future directions. While India had a monopolistic telecom provider (the government), this is rapidly changing. I will talk about the future role of the government, as well as issues of education and digital divide.


March 22, 2001, Mike Dekay, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Heinz School of Public Policy and Management
"Reversals in Assessments of Outcome Utilities: The Result of Precautionary Decision Making?" In a series of experiments, college-student participants reported their utilities for outcomes of real-world binary decisions and their threshold probabilities for taking specified actions (e.g., issuing a dam-failure warning). Across several scenarios, many participants evaluated false positives (e.g., evacuating when there is no dam failure) as more desirable than true negatives (e.g., not evacuating when there is no dam failure). The most common rationale for such utility reversals was the precautionary maxim "it is better to be safe than sorry." Participants appeared to have evaluated these outcomes on the basis of the decisions that could lead to them, although such behavior is irrational from the perspective of expected utility theory (or any other consequentialist theory of decision making). Consistent with this explanation, the number of utility reversals was substantially reduced when the link between decisions and outcomes was weakened by taking participants out of the role of decision-maker. Current research aims to replicate these results with non-student participants and with scenarios and questions that are more directly related to the precautionary principle.


March 29, 2001, Felicia Wu-Morris, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation
"Applying Quantitative Formulations of the Precautionary Principle to Evaluation of Bt Corn Risks and Benefits." The Precautionary Principle states that when an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect relationships are not established scientifically. Critics of PP dislike the ad hoc way the Principle is invoked. To date, there have been few, if any, attempts to make quantitative decision rules for invoking the Precautionary Principle. Yet this practice, if successfully implemented, could prove useful to decision-makers that encounter risks fraught with uncertainties and desire to use a bridge between analytical techniques and qualitative statements.
My study looks in hindsight at how application of PP decision rules would have guided the licensing and deregulation of Bt corn, a type of genetically modified (GM) crop. GM crops contain genes that are artificially inserted instead of the plant's acquiring them through pollination. In the case of Bt corn, the transgene Cry is derived from a bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis, and enables the corn to produce its own pesticide.
My goal is to aid in the creation and development of a new regulatory tool for risk assessment under uncertainty, by applying Farrow and Morel's theory of the Precautionary Principle to the Bt corn problem. The tasks are: 1) to identify and quantify the risks and uncertainties associated with Bt corn; 2) to perform standard benefit-cost and sensitivity analyses; 3) to modify and apply our Precautionary Principle analysis using real options to Bt risks and benefits. This is a work-in-progress, so I will show how far the research has come and welcome suggestions.


April 5, 2001, David Dzombak, Carnegie Mellon, Civil and Environmental Engineering
"Testifying in Congress: Lessons from the Pros." As the average EPP graduate student is likely to be called upon to testify before Congress or similar governmental bodies many times in her/his career, it is useful to study the process and procedures of legislative testimony, and to learn the ingredients of effective testimony. This can be done by observing testimony (e.g., on C-SPAN), by talking to people who have experience testifying, and by talking to people who have worked for the governmental bodies that seek testimony from engineers, scientists, economists, and other professionals. Through my participation in the Aldo Leopold Leadership Program in 2000 (www.leopold.orst.edu), I had the opportunity to talk with and be trained by scientists with a great deal of experience giving Congressional testimony, and by experienced staffers of the U.S. HOR Science Committee. In this talk I will pass along some of what I learned about the process of Congressional testimony, and some tips given to me about the components of effective testimony.


April 12, 2001, Mark Rosenzwieg, University of Pennsylvania, Economics
"Population Growth, Income Growth and Deforestation: Management of Village Common Land in India." In this paper, a geo-coded, village-level dataset is constructed based on Indian longitudinal household survey data to assess the effects of agricultural productivity growth, population growth, and rural industrialization on deforestation. The population and economic data are combined with satellite images that cover a wide areas of rural India over a twelve-year period (a thirty-year period if we can complete the work we are doing in time) to partially address limitations to knowledge about how the specific mechanisms of economic growth affect land management in general, and forest exploitation in particular. The data are used not only to obtain estimates of population and economic growth effects on forest survival and to identify the mechanisms by which these factors affect land use, but also to address the question of whether the extraction of forest resources can be easily monitored.
The study shows, based on the solution to a three-sector general-equilibrium representative agent model, that the proposition that forest areas is first-best efficiently managed (as would be the case given complete markets for land and labor) has a testable implication. This is tested by ascertaining whether villages that manage common lands exhibit greater deviation from the restriction arising from the complete markets equilibrium model compared with villages without locally managed common land.
The reduced-form econometric results confirm that higher population densities do lead to deforestation, but that the effect of income on forests is conditioned by the sources of income growth. In particular, industrialization, which increases wages, has little effect on forests, but agricultural technical change, which also increases the productivity of land, leads to deforestation. The study also confirms that villages with commonly owned lands manage forests less efficiently than those without commonly owned lands.


April 24, 2001, Udaya Rao, National Energy Technology Lab, Department of Energy
"Materials R & D for Fossil Energy Power Systems." The goal of the Fossil Energy Materials Program is to provide a materials technology base to assure the success of coal fuels and advanced power generation systems. The charter of the Program is quite comprehensive. It is often described as generic or crosscutting (broad applicability to advanced fossil energy technologies) long-range (accommodating materials R&D from the exploratory stage to transfer of the technology), high-risk (probability of success may be, but is not necessarily, low), and high-payoff (success may be of great value, i.e., is a critical supporting technology to advanced fossil energy systems).
The Program fosters exploratory research whose aim is to generate new materials, ideas and concepts which have the potential to significantly improve the performance or cost of existing fossil systems or enable the development of new systems and capabilities. Consequently, developing improved materials for high-temperature, high-pressure heat exchangers, high-temperature fuel cells and advanced turbine systems constitute major objectives of the program. An essential feature of the FE Materials program is the construction of a materials technology base and facilitation of technology transfer to meet the needs of high-efficiency fossil energy systems.


May 3, 2001, Peter Reinelt, EPP-HDGC
"Betting with the Planet: Uncertain Knowledge and Global Warming Policy."


May 25, 2001, Bill Gunter, Alberta Research Council in Edmonton, Canada
"Mitigation of CO2: Geological Use and Storage." Storage of CO2 in geological media is considered as a bridging technology to allow the continued use of fossil fuels as the major global energy source until sufficient capacity-building of renewables has occurred to replace fossil fuel use. Options for storage of CO2 in deep aquifers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, enhanced oil recovery and enhanced coalbed methane are described related to a geological sedimentary basin setting. The security of geological storage of CO2 also is evaluated.


June 7, 2001, Rita Bajura, DOE-National Energy Technology Laboratory
"Carbon Sequestration." Rita is the director of the NETL and will share information about DOE-Fossil Energy's program in addition to her discussion on carbon sequestration.


June 12, 2001, Anand Patwardhan, India Institute of Technology
"Historical Patterns of Tropical Storm Incidence and Impacts on the East Coast of India." In this talk I will describe our work to analyze the historical patterns of tropical storm incidence and the associated impacts on the East Coast of India. Using information from published atlases of tropical cyclone tracks, we construct a dataset of landfalling locations and event characteristics at landfall over a period starting from 1891 to 1990. We find that there are no significant trends in the annual counts of either depressions, storms or severe storms, although the counts do exhibit significant intrannual variability. Depressions make landfall mainly on the Bengal coast, whereas storms are distributed more evenly, and make landfall on the Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh as well as the Bengal coast. An attempt was made to explore the linkages between storm incidence and the large-scale climatological features such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon. Finally, using the incidence data, we have composed a profile of exposure of the coastline to storm hazard.


June 21, 2001, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"What I Have Learned Over the Last 10 Years." Prof. Hadi Dowlatabadi is the Canada Research Chair Professor, University of British Columbia, a University Fellow, Resources for the Future, and Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University. He holds B.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in physics from Edinburgh and Cambridge Universities respectively in the UK. Dr. Dowlatabadi moved to the US in 1984 to study the environmental impacts of power generation. In 1987, he joined Resources for the Future to gain a better understanding of economics. In 1991, Hadi began research on climate change at Carnegie Mellon University, where he coordinated a team of researchers at CMU engaged in the study of the interaction between human and natural systems in the context of global climate change. From 1996-2000, Dr. Dowlatabadi directed the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, a NSF Center of Excellence composed of more than 40 scientists from 18institutions. Hadi's research is geared towards developing more realistic representations of problems we face so that human responses to a changing and uncertain environment can be improved. Specifically, he has focused on the nexus of energy-environment-economics problems; the themes of decision making and uncertainty; investigation of technology choice in the energy sector; design of environmental regulations; co-evolutionary models of humans and the environment; integrated assessment of climate change; and the Integrated Climate Assessment Model (ICAM), the leading integrated assessment model of climate change for which he is the primary developer.


August 29, 2001, Hisham Zerriffi, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"Political Power: Electricity Planning and the Uncertain Transition From Conflict in the Palestinian Case." The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and peace process results in both great uncertainty and in strong political motivations and constraints. This has a direct effect on plans for the electricity sytem serving the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza. This talk will highlight the political dimensions of the electricity system and how they have impacted the plans of the Palestinian Energy Authority. The unresolved nature of the peace process means that many of the important parameters in electricity planning are highly uncertain and these uncertainties will be presented. The problems that result from the current phase in the conflict will also be reviewed. Finally, some of the approaches taken by planners and donors to these problems and some of the key lessons learned will be presented.


September 12, 2001, Benoit Morel, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"How To Deal With Terrorism."


September 19, 2001, Stephen Farber, University of Pittsburgh
"Valuing Coastal Barrier Islands." This paper combines ecologic and economic analysis to determine the value of preserving the coastal barrier island system in Louisiana. Barrier island loss will result in changes in coastal hydrology. By considering the changes in hydrologic regimes, and their impact on storm damages to property, the topic has relevance to anticipated sea level rise.


October 3, 2001, Jeffrey Hunker, Carnegie Mellon, Heinz School of Public Policy and Management
"Cyber Security and the Problems of Network Externalities." Ensuring the security and reliability of the Internet and other information networks from deliberate or other disruption is a growing concern. This talk looks at five of the key dimensions of the emerging strategies for addressing this problem as examples of network externalities. These strategy dimensions are: assigning liability and responsibility; defining jurisdiction; creating a shared system of warning and response; understanding interdependencies; selecting performance and technology standards. The significant difficulties in advancing in each of these dimensions will be discussed.


October 10, 2001, Julie Downs, Carnegie Mellon, Social and Decision Sciences
"Sexual Decision-Making: An Application of Mental Models to Adolescent Health." Effective communications must use their recipients' time well, providing needed information in a brief and efficacious way. The "mental models" methodology attempts to achieve these goals through a combination of formal modeling (integrating the relevant science, in order to determine what information really matters) and semi-structured interviews (determining what people already know, in their own terms and frame of reference). I will present an application of this methodology to reducing young women's risk of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). The empirical core of the research is a series of interviews with young women about their STD beliefs and perceptions of choices potentially creating STDs risks. These interviews lead to a structured test for assessing teens' STD knowledge and an intervention for closing gaps in knowledge. The intervention also sought to increase users' perceived and actual self-efficacy, by allowing them to make and practice choices in realistic, dramatized settings. In a randomized clinical trial, this intervention has been compared with an "ideal usual care" condition, comprised of the best commercially available brochures, covering the same general topics. Outcome measures include knowledge, self-reported behaviors, and a clinical screen for chlamydia at pretest and posttest, among others. Participants in all groups improved in knowledge relevant to STDs. Overall, participants who received the mental models intervention improved significantly in behavioral and clinical outcomes, whereas controls did not.


October 24, 2001, David Keith, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-HDGC
"Mitigating CO2 Emissions in Canada: Acid Gas on my Summer Holidays." I will tackle three topics all related to the near-term implementation of CO2 capture and storage. 1.) I will give a brief overview of the technology for injecting CO2 into geological structures, its risks, and their implications for public policy. 2.) Most analysis of CO2 capture has focused on combustion sources of CO2 (large power plants) and on theoretical speculation about the cost of storage in geological structures. I will take a more applied view, describing the important, though limited, suite of technological niches where CCS technologies may be applied at low cost. The most important of these opportunities involve non-combustion sources of CO2. These niche applications could provide significant near-term reductions in CO2 emissions while simultaneously providing invaluable institutional and technological experience with the CO2 capture and storage. An important example of this is the injection of acid gas from natural gas processing. I will give an overview, then focus on the technology and economics surface facilities, describe how the technological and regulatory experience with injection of H2S+CO2 might be leveraged to larger-scale CO2 sequestration, and finally, talk about extending acid gas injection to cover most natural-gas associated CO2. 3.) The transition of climate policy from talk to action is awkward. But, in Canada climate policy is rapidly advancing from talk to action. I will describe this transition and discuss the challenges of structuring programs for the near-term policy environment that will likely be characterized by piecemeal project and sector specific initiatives, so as to maximize economic efficiency and opportunities for learning-by-doing while minimizing regulatory lock-in that might hinder the long term development of systematic economy-wide measures for CO2 mitigation.


October 29, 2001, Nick Shorr, Wake Forest, Anthropology
"Why Campo Alegrans Are More Worried About Weeds Than About Trees or Soils: Impacts and Understandings in the Intensification of Swidden Agriculture." The accelerated deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon over the past few decades has been strongly associated with highly extensive systems of land-use (low investment, low production, low income, low employment per area) that include both smallholders and large ranching and lumber interests. Viable, sustainable intensive systems would reduce the incentive for further clearance at the 'extensive margin,' i.e., further into the forest. However, as swidden (slash-and-burn) farmers clear younger fallows for their gardens they cause and confront a set of agro-ecological changes that are problematic in terms of both long-term production and ecology. These challenges of intensification do not end with the demise of swidden: they remain highly problematic and can only increase with global demographic growth. Policies that seek to mitigate or reverse deforestation should support land-managers at the frontier of sustainable intensification. First, however, we need to learn more from them and with them.
The Tikuna of the Upper Solimoes (Upper Brazilian Amazon) have come, over the past two generations, to occupy some of the largest swidden communities and practice some of the highest cropping intensities in contemporary Amazonia. Dissertation fieldwork was conducted in one of these large, intensive communities, Campo Alegre, and examined the context for intensification there, its agroecological impacts and farmers' understandings of and responses to these impacts. This paper presents Campo Alegran responses to intensification in two overlapping stages of adaptation: an initial one that is less consciously based on insights into agroecological change and a subsequent one in which such understandings come to play a larger role. While evidence is presented suggesting several potentially negative agroecological changes, Campo Alegrans have distributed their attention, understanding, and concern regarding these changes in particular ways. I attempt to explain this particular distribution, its relevance for subsequent practices, and its implications for research and policy. Throughout, the relationship between researcher and producer is considered.


October 31, 2001, Benoit Morel, Carnegie Mellon, EPP

"How Rational are 'Rational' Options? Extending or Experiencing Some Limits of Their Validity as Paradigm for Risk Management. "Rational" options are what the Nobel Prize winning Merton-Black-Scholes formula deal with. The spectacular early success of the Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1994 seemed to vindicate their validity as scientific tools for the implementation of a risk neutral strategy in the most complex circumstances. The no less spectacular demise of LTCM in 1998 generated serious doubts as to the wisdom of using in practice that kind of sophisticated mathematical techniques. The jury is still out on the question of the exact extent of their validity as paradigm for risk management in situation of large uncertainty.


November 5, 2001, Alex Farrell, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Electricity Industry Center
"Recent Developments in CO2 and Other Emission Trading." The European Union recently released a proposal for international CO2 trading within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol. This is the first such proposal and contains a significant number of important and complex features. I will go through the main features of the proposal and discuss the factors that will influence its prospects for eventual adoption.
Additionally, there have been a number of developments in regional and international emission trading for conventional (and unconventional) pollutants, some of which may have major implications for U.S. and Canadian electricity production. If time permits, I will discuss these as well.


November 7, 2001, Manoj Guha, Manager Technology Development, American Electric Power Company
"The Role of Coal in Sustainable World Energy Developments and Why Carbon Sequestration Will be Necessary Under Every Possible Scenarios."


November 14, 2001, Wes Cohen, Carnegie Mellon, EPP-Social and Decision Sciences
"Links and Impacts: The Influence of Public Research on Industrial R&D." In this paper, we use data from the Carnegie Mellon Survey on Industrial R&D to evaluate for the U.S. manufacturing sector the influence of "public" (i.e., university and government R&D lab) research on industrial R&D, the role that public research plays in industrial R&D, and the pathways through which that effect is exercised. We find that public research is critical to industrial R&D in a small number of industries and importantly affects industrial R&D across much of the manufacturing sector. Contrary to the notion that university research largely generates new ideas for industrial R&D projects, the survey responses demonstrate that public research both suggests new R&D projects and contributes to the completion of existing projects in roughly equal measure overall. The results also indicate that the key channels through which university research impacts industrial R&D include published papers and reports, public conferences and meetings, informal information exchange and consulting. We also find that, after controlling for industry, the influence of public research on industrial R&D is disproportionately greater for larger firms as well as startups.


December 3, 2001, Dr. V. Aatre, Scientific Advisor and Secretary, Ministry of Defense in India
"Indian Defense Technologies." The ambit of defense technology is truly wide and highly specialized. From weapon systems to life support systems, from sensor systems to electronic warfare systems - technology is seems to rule all the elements of present day battlefield. Considering the importance, Indian defense technologies are built over a period of time to attain 'self reliance' in critical technology areas. Indian efforts in the defense technologies are an integral part of the larger national mission of self-reliance and indigenous development of defense systems though a number of specialized R&D laboratories, Defense Public Sector Units, Ordnance Factories and Private Sector. Several major projects for the development of missiles, armaments, light combat aircraft, radars, electronic warfare systems etc. are on hand and significant successes have already been achieved in several such systems and technologies. Successful flights of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) has given a big momentum to the Aeronautics industries in the country. It is worthwhile to mention that the present level of technological advance has been the result of significant contributions made by universities, research institutes, and governmental laboratories. The continuous flow of research and technological contributions extended over the years is still going on and has been instrumental in synergising these efforts.
Dr. V. Aatre is India's foremost scientist in underwater acoustics and electronics. He was the Chief Controller of all electronics and naval projects for India's defense before being invited to lead India's all defense R&D projects. In addition to the Scientific Advisor's post he occupies in the government, Dr. Aatre is also a Secretary in the Ministry of Defense, the highest civilian position in the Ministry. Dr. Aatre is a graduate in Electronics and communications engineering from the prestigious Indian Institute of Science Bangalore and obtained his Ph.D. from Waterloo University, Canada. He is a Fellow of Indian National Academy of Engineering and a Fellow of Institution of Electrical and Computer Engineering.


December 5, 2001, Dr. Conrad Steenkamp, HDGC Researcher
"Expert Planning, Development Aid and Environmental Conservation: The Case of the Makuleke Ecotourism Project." I will present an ethnography and analysis of an intense environmental conflict that occurred in the Northern Province of South Africa. The case study deals with plans to expand the northern Kruger National Park onto neighbouring tribal land and into Zimbabwe and Botswana, and how a small and powerless rural community became a the thorn in the side of the conservation authorities. It demonstrates the difficulties and ambiguities involved in translating large-scale expert planning into practice on the ground.


December 11, 2001, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology

Informal discussion on the Carbon Joint Project and other IIT Research.


December 12, 2001, Scott Farrow, EPP-CSIR
"Developing an Implementable Approach to Water Pollution Trading: With an application to Pittsburgh Combined Sewer Overflows." Pollution trading has been a success for some air pollutants; its record for reducing the cost of water pollution has not been so successful. A team working with EPA support is in the process of looking at the benefits of water quality improvements, alternative theoretical designs, and implementation details to trade water pollution in water quality limited areas including those affected by Total Maximum Daily Load requirements and in areas of Combined Sewer Overflows

2000

January 10, 2000

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
A Personal Perspective on Global Change
Mr. Paul O'Neil
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February 14, 2000

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Factors Responsible for the Resurgence of  Vector-Borne Diseases in the Waning Years of the 20th Century: Climate vs. Demographic, Societal and Other Changes
Dr. Duane Gubler
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March 13, 2000

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
This View of Earth
Dr. Jay Apt
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April 10, 2000

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Our Common Journey: Navigating the Sustainability Transition
Dr. Robert Kates
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May 8, 2000

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Detecting Climate Change and its Attribution to Human Activities
Prof. Dr. Klaus Hasselmann
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1999

December 13, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Conscience and Consumption
Rabbi Yitzhak Husband-Hankin
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November 8, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Environment and Trade: Can They Be  Reconciled?
Prof. Edith Brown-Weiss
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October 11, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Alternative Automobile Fuels: Implications for  Global Warming, Sustainability, and Urban Air Pollution
Prof. Lester Lave
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October 4-6, 1999 

NSF Site Review
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September 20, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Betting on DICE: The policy implicaitons of parametric uncertainty representation, feedbacks, and the absence of risk aversion in the DICE model
Peter Reinelt
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Berkeley

Time: Noon
Location: EPP conference room.  

September 15, 1999 

Annual Advisory Board Meeting
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September 13, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Climate and Culture Change in Eastern North America
Prof. David G. Anderson
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May 23-27, 1999
The Annual Meeting of the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Pittsburgh
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May 10, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Forecast Cloudy: The Limits of Global Warming Models
Peter Stone, Massachussetts Institute of Technology
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April 28, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Mental Models of Disease: Lessons for Intervention
Elizabeth Casman

April 21, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
The Use of Bayesian Approaches in Environmental Decision-making
Mitchell Small

April 14, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
The Role of High-resolution GCMs in Assessment of Climate Change
Charles Keller

April 12, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Simulating Climate at Extremely High Resolution: The Next Big Step in Understanding
Charles F . Keller, Los Alamos National Laboratory
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April 7, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Toxic Releases from Power Plants: The Next Shoe to Drop
Ed Rubin

March 31, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Air Pollution, Health, and Development: The Indian Experience
Milind Kandlikar

March 24, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Technological Innovation in Air Pollution Control Technologies
Margaret Taylor

March 10, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Climate Change Policy: A Perspective from the White House
Rosina Bierbaum

March 8, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Climate Change Impacts and the Policy Imperative
Rosina Bierbaum, President's Office of Science and Technology Policy
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March 3, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Global Environmental Change: What can we Learn from the Mathematical Analysis of Complex Systems?
Benoit Morel

February 24, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Gains from Trade between CSIR and CIS-HDGC: Performance Measurement, Options, and Emissions Trading
Scott Farrow
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February 17, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Adaptive Management for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Hadi Dowlatabadi

February 10, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
The Co-evolution of Environmental Science and Policy:
Examples from Regional Air Pollution Management in the U.S. and Europe
Alex Farrell, Carnegie Mellon University
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February 8, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Polar Crocodiles: A 55-Million-Year Perspective on Global Warming and Cooling
Mary Dawson, Carnegie Museum of Natural History
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February 3, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Expert Eliciation of Ecosystems Impacts of Climate Change
Granger Morgan
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January 27, 1999

Global Change Lunch Seminar series
Valuing Future Outcomes: Discounting, Time Preference, and Identity
Shane Fredrick
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January 11, 1999

Carnegie Lectures on Global Change
Why are Economists Meddling in Environmental Policy and Why is It Good That They Are?
Paul Portney, Resources for the Future
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